peregrinator Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even if the surface reflections still might still be playing catch-up to H5, the storm is in the 24-48hr range now, and it might be a good idea to start looking for model consensus in QPF totals. So here's the 12z roundup for KNYC: NMM: 0.25-0.50" QPF, with a little more to come after 48h GFS: 0.42" SUNY MM5 on GFS domain: ~0.40-0.50" NAM: 0.51" ARW: ~0.50" QPF, with more to come after 48h GEFS: 0.50-0.75" ECMWF: 0.50-0.75" GGEM: 0.60-0.80" (probably on the lower end of this range) UKMET: 0.60-0.80" RGEM: 0.60-0.80" (probably on the higher end of this range) SUNY MM5 on NAM domain: ~0.70-0.80" Totally feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on any of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even if the surface reflections still might still be playing catch-up to H5, the storm is in the 24-48hr range now, and it might be a good idea to start looking for model consensus in QPF totals. So here's the 12z roundup for KNYC: NMM: 0.25-0.50" QPF, with a little more to come after 48h GFS: 0.42" SUNY MM5 on GFS domain: ~0.40-0.50" NAM: 0.51" ARW: ~0.50" QPF, with more to come after 48h GEFS: 0.50-0.75" ECMWF: 0.50-0.75" GGEM: 0.60-0.80" (probably on the lower end of this range) UKMET: 0.60-0.80" RGEM: 0.60-0.80" (probably on the higher end of this range) SUNY MM5 on NAM domain: ~0.70-0.80" Totally feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on any of these. Looks about right ..6-10" seems safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 JM1220 since you are 10 minutes from me do you think we will possibly reach double digit snow depth but also can we be in mid teens Friday and near zero sat morning? Hard to say. I think we have a shot at approaching zero on Friday Night and we should be in the mid teens as the snow ends on Friday. If the amplified trends continue and we have 0.75" or so liquid, 10" and maybe even 12" is possible. But I don't think we exceed 12" from a storm that's progressive like this and where the best dynamics are offshore. Let's see tonight if the models continue ramping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even if the surface reflections still might still be playing catch-up to H5, the storm is in the 24-48hr range now, and it might be a good idea to start looking for model consensus in QPF totals. So here's the 12z roundup for KNYC: NMM: 0.25-0.50" QPF, with a little more to come after 48h GFS: 0.42" SUNY MM5 on GFS domain: ~0.40-0.50" NAM: 0.51" ARW: ~0.50" QPF, with more to come after 48h GEFS: 0.50-0.75" ECMWF: 0.50-0.75" GGEM: 0.60-0.80" (probably on the lower end of this range) UKMET: 0.60-0.80" RGEM: 0.60-0.80" (probably on the higher end of this range) SUNY MM5 on NAM domain: ~0.70-0.80" Totally feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on any of these. With ratios that is a nice 6-10 isolated 12" storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone have the soundings for TEB from the 12Z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even if the surface reflections still might still be playing catch-up to H5, the storm is in the 24-48hr range now, and it might be a good idea to start looking for model consensus in QPF totals. So here's the 12z roundup for KNYC: NMM: 0.25-0.50" QPF, with a little more to come after 48h GFS: 0.42" SUNY MM5 on GFS domain: ~0.40-0.50" NAM: 0.51" ARW: ~0.50" QPF, with more to come after 48h GEFS: 0.50-0.75" ECMWF: 0.50-0.75" GGEM: 0.60-0.80" (probably on the lower end of this range) UKMET: 0.60-0.80" RGEM: 0.60-0.80" (probably on the higher end of this range) SUNY MM5 on NAM domain: ~0.70-0.80" Totally feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on any of these. I would use those and see how the SREF and HRRR look later and tomorrow .7 looks right to me 15 to 1 as of right now I just think 1 more small tick up is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone have the soundings for TEB from the 12Z EURO? Or MMU? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nws binghamton has ws warning for scranton 5-9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even another small step at 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow would be welcomed. The public site trimmed 12 hour increments and only goes to 120 now. yesterday today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even another small step at 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow would be welcomed. yesterday North32America_msl_72.gif today North32America_msl_48.gif it's not going to take much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS has been the most steady the last 4 or 5 runs and has slowly increased QPF at 12z with 0.50 at NYC. Overall looks like we are forming a general consensus for a decent snowfall 4 - 8 with some spots maybe to 10 or more for the area more to the east. It'll be interesting to see where the 18z and 00z suites take us and the higher res models will shed light on any banding potential. Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 All this one more tick forward, well what we have now is that as good as a lock or can we take a tick back and still be in the 2-4 inch range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it's not going to take much Just a little bit west and we are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I guess in 45 minutes the 3PM NAM will have our attention, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yes it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it's not going to take much And i think we are going to get there. With my final forecast in the 12-18 range. Thanks to the snow ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Everyone except Long Island is below 0 at 06z Saturday. On January 22, 1961 Upton in Suffolk County, LI saw the temperature fall to -23 F...that is 23 degrees below zero. That same morning, the lowest temperature recorded in NYC Central Park was +11 F...for a 34 degree spread between the two stations. So the odds of Long Island being excluded from a sub-zero morning are not good if KNYC & company have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On January 22, 1961 Upton in Suffolk County, LI saw the temperature fall to -23 F...that is 23 degrees below zero. That same morning, the lowest temperature recorded in NYC Central Park was +11 F...for a 34 degree spread between the two stations. So the odds of Long Island being excluded from a sub-zero morning are not good if KNYC & company have one. I'm sure that temp was aided by radiational cooling. Any wind and LI will have no chance going below 0. Luckily most models have winds dying down Friday night. We might be able to radiate really well. I think FOK hits at least -5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On January 22, 1961 Upton in Suffolk County, LI saw the temperature fall to -23 F...that is 23 degrees below zero. That same morning, the lowest temperature recorded in NYC Central Park was +11 F...for a 34 degree spread between the two stations. So the odds of Long Island being excluded from a sub-zero morning are not good if KNYC & company have one. A few hours of calm winds should do the trick at the usual spots. WESTHAMPTON BEACH KFOK GFS MOS GUIDANCE 1/01/2014 1200 UTC DT /JAN 1/JAN 2 /JAN 3 /JAN 4 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 23 37 17 22 -2 TMP 33 32 27 26 28 30 29 32 34 35 35 35 34 31 25 17 19 18 12 4 3 DPT 14 15 16 19 24 26 25 28 28 28 26 26 24 20 13 9 8 4 -1 -8 -5 CLD BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK CL CL CL SC WDR 29 28 00 10 10 08 05 04 03 03 03 02 01 36 34 33 33 32 33 34 00 WSP 09 05 00 01 04 05 09 11 10 10 15 20 20 22 24 20 21 17 13 03 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm sure that temp was aided by radiational cooling. Any wind and LI will have no chance going below 0. Luckily most models have winds dying down Friday night. We might be able to radiate really well. I think FOK hits at least -5F. I think you miss my point...wind or no wind, if the temperatures in the UHI of NYC drop below zero, similar numbers will occur on L.I...the question as to whether or not it *would* actually drop below zero was not being addressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NWS in Philly finally issued watches/warnings for the rest of NJ/eastern PA and a new snowfall map. Nice! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 CPK is in Virginia. It's KNYC. Just letting you know. Common mistake. Chesapeake represent!! 757!! Temps in the low teens and heavy snow will be something not often experienced in these parts. Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I caution everyone tomorrow that not much will be going on until the evening….the fireworks start at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I caution everyone tomorrow that not much will be going on until the evening….the fireworks start at night thank you because usually we'll be seeing " the radar looks bad not good start cutting totals" or " its not negative tilted, its not going to make the turn" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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