OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So there's been a good amount of talk on the upper level temps, but have we ruled out ratios above 10:1? Going by Bufkit, at BOS the warm nose is a little too warm tonight and tomorrow for extreme ratios. But Friday they look to be 200-300 mb deep snow growth zone. That should be some high ratio fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z RGEM totals. Thru 48h with more to come. Approaching 1.20" in SE MA. Looks overdone to me. 12z rgem 1-1-14.gif Probably overdone, your right. If it's not, congrats too us on 18 inches of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 *very* nice, must have missed that. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So a few inches by morning? I could see like 1-3" Thursday morning and then the snow completely winds down until early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I like the look for the Rt 2 corridor into adjacent S VT and S NH I buy a 10-16" range or something in N MA and adjacent S VT and S NH. Sitting between Rt 2 and VT makes me feel pretty good--I've been eyeing that WAA element as the one seemingly consistent element to this for many runs. The fact that it's been so steady has me concerned that it will suddenly disappear--lol. But, unless something crazy happens where the coastal suddenly amps up closer, I'm thinking that whatever it can spew out up this way will be a bonus deal to the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It looks amazing for OES enhancement. Almost too good to be true, been 8 years since I've seen anything as favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I buy a 10-16" range or something in N MA and adjacent S VT and S NH. A little difference in location, but not so far off. 850 mb fgen. Euro GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Almost too good to be true, been 8 years since I've seen anything as favorable If someone gets a 14-18" lolli...its going to be somewhere that gets OES enhancement I think...it could be one of those storms where a jackpot spot gets 8" more than a spot within 20 miles. North Shore looks good too for a time before the BL goes more northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You figure sloped ascent, that really favors the area just along and N of the MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You figure sloped ascent, that really favors the area just along and N of the MA border. Nice maps! what time is that for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Interesting. Wasn't there someone yesterday that mentioned 20:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 A little difference in location, but not so far off. 850 mb fgen. Euro EC_06z.jpg GFS GFS_06z.jpg NAM NAM_06z.jpg I like the consistency..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice maps! what time is that? That's 06z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Interesting. Wasn't there someone yesterday that mentioned 20:1? There was, wall to wall 20:1. 15" for all. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 A little difference in location, but not so far off. 850 mb fgen. NAM banding tool pretty stalls the mean H6-H8 max frontogenesis over S/C NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That's 06z tonight. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There was, wall to wall 20:1. 15" for all. Congrats.Sometimes.. Just sometimes .. Weenies know a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How does the north shore look for oes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM banding tool pretty stalls the mean H6-H8 max frontogenesis over S/C NH. Ekster left me in pretty good shape, so it doesn't look like I'll have to massive grid edits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You figure sloped ascent, that really favors the area just along and N of the MA border. Yup - the direct circulation sets up on the warm side of the best frontogenesis but as you mentioned slopes toward the cold air... so that's a pretty good chunk of real estate getting decent snows especially considering how cold the column will be (good, effiicient dendrite production). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 East areas are getting hit pretty good on all models. I think where it is going to become rather interesting is central mass down through Connecticut. I think those areas are a bit more precarious. They may miss some WAA Snows, and then may be too far west to really get into the coastal. That analysis could be wrong, but it just seems that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sometimes.. Just sometimes .. Weenies know a little bit Whoever accused them of not knowing a little bit? I'm trying to be the voice of reason that says ratios are a moving target (not to mention a very tough thing to predict). You will get periods of extreme ratio snowfall in this event, but you'll also get rather average ratios at times. 24 hours of 20:1 this is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If i was to put money on it, i would say cape Ann jackpot. WAA snows plus OE enhancement , = cape Ann FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 East areas are getting hit pretty good on all models. I think where it is going to become rather interesting is central mass down through Connecticut. I think those areas are a bit more precarious. They may miss some WAA Snows, and then may be too far west to really get into the coastal. That analysis could be wrong, but it just seems that way I could see W ORH county and into CT River valley getting a bit of screwjie if the WAA snows lift north and then the other stuff is mostly along the east slope and eastern MA. Too early to tell though right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How does the north shore look for oes Pretty good I believe, from what I've seen/past experience anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Whoever accused them of not knowing a little bit? I'm trying to be the voice of reason that says ratios are a moving target (not to mention a very tough thing to predict). You will get periods of extreme ratio snowfall in this event, but you'll also get rather average ratios at times. 24 hours of 20:1 this is not. Winds along the coast should hamper ratios too, I'd think. Wind ripping away at the dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yup - the direct circulation sets up on the warm side of the best frontogenesis but as you mentioned slopes toward the cold air... so that's a pretty good chunk of real estate getting decent snows especially considering how cold the column will be (good, effiicient dendrite production). NAM keeps CON around 200 to 300 mb deep DGZ throughout the event, GFS is a little warmer for parts of the day tomorrow but close. That truly could be wall to wall 20:1 or more stuff. NAM basically does that, with around 8" of snow from 0.40" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How about Beverly to Lynn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Winds along the coast should hamper ratios too, I'd think. Wind ripping away at the dendrites. Unless you have a snow fence it all ends up your neighbor's yard anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How about Beverly to Lynn? Those places usually do quite well in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.