Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like a slightly juicier version of the EC QPF distribution now with the E MA jackpot and a secondary max around ALB. Would love to have seen the 1.25"+ stuff verify but that was highly unlikely. I think .8-.9" is the tops out of this. Still gives an 8-14" range of snowfall in eastern areas using a 12:1/15:1 ratio. Caveat could be the OE enhancement along the coast in the favored areas. That's why I picked the South Shore back to Brockton as the "jackpot". Could be 2-3" of pure fluff there with 20:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the RPM is pretty much the definition of haves/have nots. substantial along extreme E MA coast and a secondary axis of good snow across NYS...elsewhere pretty ugly. How so? Just hours of -SN with 4" over 10 hours? Dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z NAM is a discouraging start to the 12z models, hope it's just a blip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Time will tell. I know where my money isMadam Cleo? This never look'd like much to me in ct, truthfully. This has been A emass enhancement deal for a while. Thx dentrite for inflow answer Looks great at 5H thou, right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Aside from everything else. Starting to think the WAA snows further north are going to help out those folks not really getting into the meat of the storm off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Madam Cleo? This never look'd like much to me in ct, truthfully. This has been A emass enhancement deal for a while. Thx dentrite for inflow answer Looks great at 5H thou, right, puhleeeze Youre certainly entitled to your opinion. Good luck though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 -3.5 to -4 SD u wind.not unimpressive at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 every freakin' model run we go through this bs. can we go just one model run not bashing a model? just pointing out what it shows good and/or bad. take those posts to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Don't want to see this trend back the opposite way again, still time for this to return to a mundane event. My call: widespread 4-8 with higher amounts likely south shore. I think someone sees a foot in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Aside from everything else. Starting to think the WAA snows further north are going to help out those folks not really getting into the meat of the storm off the water. May end up being the main show here. Ill take it though. May take some people by suprise some people tomorrow. I think it could be a decent band across SNH/N MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Aside from everything else. Starting to think the WAA snows further north are going to help out those folks not really getting into the meat of the storm off the water. I can't believe it---Scott echoing my comments from the last 12 hours. I should go away more often, maybe I'm beginning to see things more clearly. Flurries now....funny that we've had flakes in the air for the last 2 hours. Must be some great ratios since there's no precip in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There will be a band of S+ I think right at the coastal front. Probably starts out near and just NW of BOS and then slowly seeps SE later in the aftn and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 No use getting worked up over the NAM (though it is hideous back here in CT). As things stand the Euro is still pretty ugly so we'll see what the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildcard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 every freakin' model run we go through this bs. can we go just one model run not bashing a model? just pointing out what it shows good and/or bad. take those posts to the banter thread. Hilarious to see the same models get lauded and then bashed run to run. If it doesn't give what some want, there's a problem with it. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Could be 32 in BOS Harbor and single digits near Jerry at some point early tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think the NAM is actually a realistic solution.I think it doesn't have a clue, even if the eventual QPF matches the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Regardless of how bad the NAM may get, the 12z run showed Cape Cod, MA up through BOS getting 12-15" of snow on a 12:1 ratio, with likely more with higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think it doesn't have a clue, even if the eventual QPF matches the Euro NAM is fine this run. The BZ is getting bumped by the first wave which now misses. Much like the Euro. That leaves a naked second low to stir up it's own moisture. The best transport from that is going to be closer to the coast and where it's enhanced by the terrain. We've all known this all along. When the GFS backs down what's everyone going to use the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Could be 32 in BOS Harbor and single digits near Jerry at some point early tomorrow evening.Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro and NAM are pretty close to on e another in their depiction of the storm, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It would appear to me that if overrunning is more Pike to SNH deal and "coastal thing" is more emass enhancement, then some areas maybe 2-3 /spot 4 in ct. This is just discussion and my opinion but long duration light snows. With 3-5 pike to snh thru thurs 5pm , then i could see another general 2-4 orh east with 5-10 in enhanced areas cape Ann, s coast. Etc. With the positive trends at 5h mets what is screwing up the surface, a lead wave going seaward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM is fine this run. The BZ is getting bumped by the first wave which now misses. Much like the Euro. That leaves a naked second low to stir up it's own moisture. The best transport from that is going to be closer to the coast and where it's enhanced by the terrain. We've all known this all along. When the GFS backs down what's everyone going to use the JMA? I disagree, still see feedback, spread that qpf out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 EURO ENS qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro and NAM are pretty close to on e another in their depiction of the storm, no? Yeah not too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Couldn't find his map but Channel 30 forecast @BradNBCCT: From late tonight into Friday, significant snow, over 10" in many towns, strong wind and bitter cold...sub zero to follow! #FirstAlertCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Rpm is 8-12 here. 4-6 as close by as winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM 982mb, looks like a good hit from Philly on N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I am thinking NBC Connecticut's 6-10 is good, though they add a "+" at the end and say up to 14... I dunno but sign me up if it happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 EURO ENS qpf?0.75 CQX0.50 BOS-UUU and a stripe from BGM-DDH The rest of CNE/SNE is <0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I disagree, still see feedback, spread that qpf out. If this were a normal one banger sure but it isn't and has never been modeled as.... The BZ is getting bumped initially pretty far offshore as a second low SLOWLY develops. Earlier non Euro models were overdone. Something got in there that was bad and they IMO were too strong aloft. Nice storm but it is what it is. Good ratios, not epic QPF unless you're in a favored area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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