Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro looks pretty good for tonight. Even the CT folks wouldn't have to worry too much. I don't think many were worried aside from Pickles who was worried about CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Channel 4 (wbz) highlighted a zone from the coast down through taunton bridgewater Brockton area where they think 14-18 isolated 20 is possible. I'd expand that to places that already have over half a foot too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't think many were worried aside from Pickles who was worried about CT I was worried about CT getting less than 6"...it still might happen but the latest runs look a bit better for tonight so it should get there. Best looks to be near RI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't think many were worried aside from Pickles who was worried about CT I was worried about CT getting less than 6"...it still might happen but the latest runs look a bit better for tonight so it should get there. Best looks to be near RI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What is the QPF output from the EURO for CT?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I was worried about CT getting less than 6"...it still might happen but the latest runs look a bit better for tonight so it should get there. Best looks to be near RI border. I don't think anyone in the state sees less than 8-9 inches Most of N Ct has 2-3 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro pummels eastern MA pretty hard too. Everything is onboard. How about up here? I might be far enough east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 .6" coast, .5" I-84, .4" north on euro qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't think anyone in the state sees less than 8-9 inches Most of N Ct has 2-3 already Yesterday it was 9-10". Maybe CT should be worried if you're backing down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 most euro qpf is central jersey coast, long island, cape and islands.. .7"-.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yesterday it was 9-10". Maybe CT should be worried if you're backing down? If you recall that was based on the WAA meso band lingering here or not..So we knocked off an inch. I still firmly believe some areas will see 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Channel 4 14-18" Gloucester Boston to Taunton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't think many were worried aside from Pickles who was worried about CT lol there were plenty of folks discussing it last night including the mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Last call..for alcohol..drink it up LAST CALL --- GAME TIME January 2, 2014 at 12:38pm STAR DATE 201401.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Channel 4 14-18" Gloucester Boston to Taunton Looks like Ch 5 kept the map Harvey did. 9-15" with 15"+ N shore and S Shore/SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Last call..for alcohol..drink it up LAST CALL --- GAME TIME January 2, 2014 at 12:38pm STAR DATE 201401.02 This map is what happens when you forget to divide when averaging model qpf numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This map is what happens when you forget to divide when averaging model qpf numbers... if you read his discussion..it's based on the higher than normal snow ratios..if ratios were 10:1 it would be 8-12 with modeled qpf..so with higher ratios he's going for higher totals. It makes sense..but that doesn't mean that every single place is going to get that amount as you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Last call..for alcohol..drink it up LAST CALL --- GAME TIME January 2, 2014 at 12:38pm STAR DATE 201401.02 I have 0.3" in westbrook. A glorified dusting. When's my 11.7-15.7" coming? Tonight? Oooook DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think some people in ct may see a foot, but that as currently modeled is the area that may have some trouble. Still a great storm for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I have 0.3" in westbrook. A glorified dusting. When's my 11.7-15.7" coming? Tonight? Oooook DT. lol that guy in Ashford in NE CT said 1.1" at noon or 1pm...got some work to do tonight to get anywhere near those values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It makes sense..but that doesn't mean that every single place is going to get that amount as you know But isn't that the point of a range? It's not a forecast of jackpot amounts...the range should include what you think those folks will get. A few spot 12-14" amounts in CT doesn't mean he verifies. This is where the probabilistic forecasts are good...you've got a near 100% chance of 6" but a 25% chance of 12". It lets you know where you stand...expect 6" but may have a shot at lollipops of 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 But isn't that the point of a range? It's not a forecast of jackpot amounts...the range should include what you think those folks will get. A few spot 12-14" amounts in CT doesn't mean he verifies. This is where the probabilistic forecasts are good...you've got a near 100% chance of 6" but a 25% chance of 12". It lets you know where you stand...expect 6" but may have a shot at lollipops of 12"+. It seems to me the idea of issuing a range over a large area is that in general the majority of areas/towns in said area is expected to get that amount. So if 80% or whatever # you want to use of the towns in CT /Mass or wherever get 12-16..then that's a successful forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If only DTs map would verify. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 But isn't that the point of a range? It's not a forecast of jackpot amounts...the range should include what you think those folks will get. A few spot 12-14" amounts in CT doesn't mean he verifies. This is where the probabilistic forecasts are good...you've got a near 100% chance of 6" but a 25% chance of 12". It lets you know where you stand...expect 6" but may have a shot at lollipops of 12"+. I think that's on the high end. I will say his area has the best chance. Dusting across the southern half of the state and 1-3" north will even out tonight when the coast gets more qpf with the coastal. Now casting I think 6-10" with lollis to 12" seems reasonable. Banding is hard to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think that's on the high end. I will say his area has the best chance. Dusting across the southern half of the state and 1-3" north will even out tonight when the coast gets more qpf with the coastal. Now casting I think 6-10" with lollis to 12" seems reasonable. Banding is hard to predict. 6-12" widespread was my call yesterday with 12-18" possible coastal areas from BOS south. Looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It seems to me the idea of issuing a range over a large area is that in general the majority of areas/towns in said area is expected to get that amount. So if 80% or whatever # you want to use of the towns in CT /Mass or wherever get 12-16..then that's a successful forecast Yeah I'd agree with that...80% seems like a good level to look for 12+ on the PNS statement tomorrow to verify DT forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Here's where you can take DT forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like a nice band coming up just south of Boston. Snow intensity is picking up here in Waltham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not very familiar with the RUC/HRRR. How accurate are these models with their snowfall predicitons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 New NAM looks even better. Nice, one of the very few times where all guidance improves as the event arrives and is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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