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Jan 2-3 Big Snow Threat , Part 3


weathafella

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Euro is probably just a shade less impressive than 12z. 0.75" line is now just a hair SE of a BOS/PVD line...most of SNE is still over 0.50" except a little hole of 0.25-0.50 SW of ORH around Sturbridge from N CT back W to CT River valley N of HFD.

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Euro is probably just a shade less impressive than 12z. 0.75" line is now just a hair SE of a BOS/PVD line...most of SNE is still over 0.50" except a little hole of 0.25-0.50 SW of ORH around Sturbridge from N CT back W to CT River valley N of HFD.

Not about the QPF. The output is great. Taken verbatim its stayed impressive.
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It digs really nicely by 00z tomorrow night, and then it looks like it shoves east just a razor bit faster than 12z which makes the difference. I'm not sure anything can be drawn conclusively from it though since we are talking such small shifts that are likely smaller than model noise.

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How can Harv be putting out so much 9-15 when most models have 0.5" - 0.7" for many spots. It's a long storm and will compact too so even if people got 10", 14" and such you wouldn't know it since it will be compacted by storms end. God I'm loving Harv but WHERE is he seeing this?

Just Climo and set up?

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Not sure, but most of the mets I've seen have posted similar maps (8-12, 9-15, etc.) in those same areas. 

How can Have be putting out so much 9-15 when most models have 0.5" - 0.7" for many spots. Is a long storm and will compact too so even if people got 10", 14" and such you wouldn't know it cause it be compacted. God I'm loving Harv but WHERE is he song this?

Just Climo and set up?

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How can Harv be putting out so much 9-15 when most models have 0.5" - 0.7" for many spots. It's a long storm and will compact too so even if people got 10", 14" and such you wouldn't know it since it will be compacted by storms end. God I'm loving Harv but WHERE is he seeing this?

Just Climo and set up?

 

 

The 9-15" zone on Harv's map is generally over 0.75" on guidance right now...only the 00z Euro is slightly more pessimistic in the 0.60-0.70" range until you get SE of BOS-PVD. If you go with like 14 or 15 to 1 ratios, that gets you to at least 9-10" even using Euro qpf. The 15"+ zone has been jacked on just about all guidance as roughly an inch of qpf...even the Euro is like 0.80+ there.

 

I personally might shrink the 9-15 zone about 10-15 miles east, but that is nitpicking.

 

As for other maps that show widespread 10"+ totals well west of BOS into most of SNE, I agree that is a bit precarious. I'd keep the range wide like Harv has it to the west...6-12 isn't bad. I might go 6-10, but that is really semantics. There could be lollis higher if it pans out, and the 6-8 rage should verify even if it doesnt.

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I'm just going with my gut (one based on 20 years of experience living in SNE) here, but nice light snow this ahead of an event is a very good sign that many are missing the boat on their forecast IMO.  Many times it has meant that conditions are ripe for the whole region to see generous QPF.  I could be wrong, but I still have yet to see a forecast that convinces me it is correct for this event.

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I'm just going with my gut (one based on 20 years of experience living in SNE) here, but nice light snow this ahead of an event is a very good sign that many are missing the boat on their forecast IMO.  Many times it has meant that conditions are ripe for the whole region to see generous QPF.  I could be wrong, but I still have yet to see a forecast that convinces me it is correct for this event.

Well then you'd Love the SREF's Mean totals which have PVD at 16", me at 18"-20" and TAN and BOS at 22".

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Pickles, if you are try to imply that the only reason that Foxboro area often jackpots is that it rains just se of them, then you are wrong.

Period.

They jackpot because:

1) They are in the climatologically favored area for to jackpot in KUs, just sw of Boston.

2) They are on a plateau, which accentuates oes bands.

 

I agree that in very cold events like this, about as cold as you will ever see, actually, that the very best is east of them.

 

 

So I'm interested... Whats your personal thinking of why Cumberland, RI has been in the "jackpot zone" for most of the storms over the years?    Its not on a plateau at all.

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