TheSnowman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Only 37 on here for a Huge Euro run? Guess Ray finally DID actually go to bed. Awesome to see another 49ERS Fan here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Only 37 on here for a Huge Euro run? Guess Ray finally DID actually go to bed. Awesome to see another 49ERS Fan here! Yup......I'm from there so no brainer.....this will be my 3rd night waiting up for Euro.....thats pretty rare for me....snow outside so I'm stoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro is probably just a shade less impressive than 12z. 0.75" line is now just a hair SE of a BOS/PVD line...most of SNE is still over 0.50" except a little hole of 0.25-0.50 SW of ORH around Sturbridge from N CT back W to CT River valley N of HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Dusting on the ground already here in Smithfield. Harv has me in 9-15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro is probably just a shade less impressive than 12z. 0.75" line is now just a hair SE of a BOS/PVD line...most of SNE is still over 0.50" except a little hole of 0.25-0.50 SW of ORH around Sturbridge from N CT back W to CT River valley N of HFD.Not about the QPF. The output is great. Taken verbatim its stayed impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not about the QPF. The output is great. Taken verbatim its stayed impressive. 5H was slightly less impressive I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It digs really nicely by 00z tomorrow night, and then it looks like it shoves east just a razor bit faster than 12z which makes the difference. I'm not sure anything can be drawn conclusively from it though since we are talking such small shifts that are likely smaller than model noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How can Harv be putting out so much 9-15 when most models have 0.5" - 0.7" for many spots. It's a long storm and will compact too so even if people got 10", 14" and such you wouldn't know it since it will be compacted by storms end. God I'm loving Harv but WHERE is he seeing this? Just Climo and set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not sure, but most of the mets I've seen have posted similar maps (8-12, 9-15, etc.) in those same areas. How can Have be putting out so much 9-15 when most models have 0.5" - 0.7" for many spots. Is a long storm and will compact too so even if people got 10", 14" and such you wouldn't know it cause it be compacted. God I'm loving Harv but WHERE is he song this?Just Climo and set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Light weenie dusting on the cars already so I guess it's safe to say our 30 hours of snow has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Light weenie dusting on the cars already so I guess it's safe to say our 30 hours of snow has begun. It's actually coming down pretty quickly -- not the flurries I was expecting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How can Harv be putting out so much 9-15 when most models have 0.5" - 0.7" for many spots. It's a long storm and will compact too so even if people got 10", 14" and such you wouldn't know it since it will be compacted by storms end. God I'm loving Harv but WHERE is he seeing this? Just Climo and set up? The 9-15" zone on Harv's map is generally over 0.75" on guidance right now...only the 00z Euro is slightly more pessimistic in the 0.60-0.70" range until you get SE of BOS-PVD. If you go with like 14 or 15 to 1 ratios, that gets you to at least 9-10" even using Euro qpf. The 15"+ zone has been jacked on just about all guidance as roughly an inch of qpf...even the Euro is like 0.80+ there. I personally might shrink the 9-15 zone about 10-15 miles east, but that is nitpicking. As for other maps that show widespread 10"+ totals well west of BOS into most of SNE, I agree that is a bit precarious. I'd keep the range wide like Harv has it to the west...6-12 isn't bad. I might go 6-10, but that is really semantics. There could be lollis higher if it pans out, and the 6-8 rage should verify even if it doesnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm just going with my gut (one based on 20 years of experience living in SNE) here, but nice light snow this ahead of an event is a very good sign that many are missing the boat on their forecast IMO. Many times it has meant that conditions are ripe for the whole region to see generous QPF. I could be wrong, but I still have yet to see a forecast that convinces me it is correct for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Already a nice coating on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm just going with my gut (one based on 20 years of experience living in SNE) here, but nice light snow this ahead of an event is a very good sign that many are missing the boat on their forecast IMO. Many times it has meant that conditions are ripe for the whole region to see generous QPF. I could be wrong, but I still have yet to see a forecast that convinces me it is correct for this event. Well then you'd Love the SREF's Mean totals which have PVD at 16", me at 18"-20" and TAN and BOS at 22". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yep.. I was just out in Attleboro and roads are already covered.. Good sign IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well then you'd Love the SREF's Mean totals which have PVD at 16", me at 18"-20" and TAN and BOS at 22". I don't think love is the correct word -- but I might believe them more than any forecast I've seen. This smells like a positive bust to me. I guess we'll know soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm jealous. I'm hoping to be flying back into BOS on Friday. Right now: Ain't gonna happen. Leave STL 8:45 AM arrive BOS 12:15. Then there's the hellish bus trip back to Falmouth. We already have about 2.5 inches otg here in St. Louis. It's headed that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow we've got 3 guys in Cumberland and 1 in Smithfield here haha. We must be feeling confident. Forgot to mention is been snowing since midnight and I have a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow we've got 3 guys in Cumberland and 1 in Smithfield here haha. We must be feeling confident. Forgot to mention is been snowing since midnight and I have a coating. 4, or was I included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow we've got 3 guys in Cumberland and 1 in Smithfield here haha. We must be feeling confident. Forgot to mention is been snowing since midnight and I have a coating. I admit I'm a little bummed that I'm not in Newton or Boston anymore. Been movin around NE too much lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pickles, if you are try to imply that the only reason that Foxboro area often jackpots is that it rains just se of them, then you are wrong. Period. They jackpot because: 1) They are in the climatologically favored area for to jackpot in KUs, just sw of Boston. 2) They are on a plateau, which accentuates oes bands. I agree that in very cold events like this, about as cold as you will ever see, actually, that the very best is east of them. So I'm interested... Whats your personal thinking of why Cumberland, RI has been in the "jackpot zone" for most of the storms over the years? Its not on a plateau at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow we've got 3 guys in Cumberland and 1 in Smithfield here haha. We must be feeling confident. Forgot to mention is been snowing since midnight and I have a coating. I actually grew up in the same neighborhood as you but 2 years older. Small world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 3/7 "never forget" you can see the town of Cumberland, RI contoured in there w/ the snowfall, it's crazy. Sorry OT.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm thinking a solid 10" in my neck of the woods, with the possibility for a few inches more. Doesn't look like there will be a Narragansett Bay snow hole this time around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 BOX reigned it in a little, but a couple spots of 14+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 BOX reigned it in a little, but a couple spots of 14+ Smart move. Gfs goes up nam goes down at 6z. Euro bumped down a touch. 6-12 in my area....not sold yet on anything higher than 9/10 quite yet. Unimpressive waa stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro and NAM argue for about 9-10" about where I am ~25 miles West of Boston assuming a 15:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 06 NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 LOL at anyone still looking at qpf Put the models away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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