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Jan 2-3 Big Snow Threat , Part 3


weathafella

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The GFS deepens the mid-level lows fast enough that an area of deformation lift forms out in western SNE and then slowly collapses SE...which is why most of the region does well on the GFS. I think the issue of the GFS being more generous is lot more than just the model broadbrushing at a lower resolution. The upper levels are simply more impressive on the GFS than the NAM.

 

Check out that s/w I mentioned earlier. That gets really intense.

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The GFS deepens the mid-level lows fast enough that an area of deformation lift forms out in western SNE and then slowly collapses SE...which is why most of the region does well on the GFS. I think the issue of the GFS being more generous is lot more than just the model broadbrushing at a lower resolution. The upper levels are simply more impressive on the GFS than the NAM.

GFS has had a good handle on what I perceive dynamics should look like with the parameters given. Lt snow here
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Very best is east, but they are in a very good spot.They benefit from that weenie incline in elevation...they are the Tug Hill plateau of the s shore.

In this set up i respectfully disagree w idea easton/canton are worth mentioning wrt enhancement- this is more diff of opinion w messenger. but JUST discussion.they are often an area foxboro and canton over to nw easton as a spot where the rain -snow like sets up just se of, I grew up in raynham and have seen time and time again where real enhancement helps Abington, norwell, s weymouth over to e bridgewater and negligable west of there...and mansfield /foxboro are not really aided much.
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There's going to be OES advantage along the coast for sure tomorrow evening...still can't get over how cold the BL is. BOS tomorrow night is out of 050 at 900mb with like -13C temp. That's going to add some fluff inflation into whatever synoptic snow is falling.

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WOOOAH WOAH WOAH WOOOO HO HOOOO. The NWS Chaaaaanged their rules? This would be life changing for me. Litterally. I fully believe that swiping the board every 6 hours is the right way to do it. Is fair to the snow. And it's a Right of Passage for The Real weather people vs. the standard people that just think whatever is on the grounds is on the ground.

I could go on for hours on this. They better have not changed it cause we should not change.

when the differences climb more than ten to fifteen percent it just doesn't seem right to me...Baltimore and Boston PD 2003...Central Park 2006...BDL Dec 2002...

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In this set up inrespectfully disagree , they are often an area foxboro and canton over to nw easton as a spot where the rain -snow like sets up just se of, I see this not being an issue in this and i see this as more south shore storm.

WTF are you disagreeing with?

I said that the best will be east of them...I outlined my circle of win.

Man, b*tches be mesosemanticing me to death.

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There's going to be OES advantage along the coast for sure tomorrow evening...still can't get over how cold the BL is. BOS tomorrow night is out of 050 at 900mb with like -13C temp. That's going to add some fluff inflation into whatever synoptic snow is falling.

 

Check out some of the low level omega and even CAPE on the 4KM NAM on BUFKIT if you can, Look at PYM..LOL.  

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Man that 12z GFS is pretty awesome for SNE... H85 closes off well SE of the area, with H7 closing off along the southern coastline.  Would advect some better moisture into the area and I haven't really looked at the soundings, but gut feeling is snow growth will be great with 850s in that -10C level.  Ratios will likely even decrease as one heads north due to the arctic airmass.

 

f33.gif

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Pickles, if you are try to imply that the only reason that Foxboro area often jackpots is that it rains just se of them, then you are wrong.

Period.

They jackpot because:

1) They are in the climatologically favored area for to jackpot in KUs, just sw of Boston.

2) They are on a plateau, which accentuates oes bands.

 

I agree that in very cold events like this, about as cold as you will ever see, actually, that the very best is east of them.

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Most of these storms always have some sort of enhancement anyways when it's below 30F. I saw it all the time..it was a nice benefit to what sometimes can be a hostile place in winter. This storm is more of a different beast. The cold is going to allow processes for OES that normally do not happen.

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Pickles, if you are try to imply that the only reason that Foxboro area often jackpots is that it rains just se of them, then you are wrong.

Period.

They jackpot because:

1) They are in the climatologically favored area for to jackpot in KUs, just sw of Boston.

2) They are on a plateau, which accentuates oes bands.

 

I agree that in very cold events like this, about as cold as you will ever see, actually, that the very best is east of them.

 

 

Most of Foxboro's advantage is elevation and promixity to the coastal front in many of our storms. OES is probably relatively minor, but they do get it...prob mostly ocean enhancement rather than pure OES to meso-semantic you to death. I specifically recall them getting hit in the 2/16/96 event when the rest of dryslotted horribly, and they were pounding away and got over a foot.

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Most of Foxboro's advantage is elevation and promixity to the coastal front in many of our storms. OES is probably relatively minor, but they do get it...prob mostly ocean enhancement rather than pure OES to meso-semantic you to death. I specifically recall them getting hit in the 2/16/96 event when the rest of dryslotted horribly, and they were pounding away and got over a foot.

 

That was a weird storm. I remember that one as well.

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Most of Foxboro's advantage is elevation and promixity to the coastal front in many of our storms. OES is probably relatively minor, but they do get it...prob mostly ocean enhancement rather than pure OES to meso-semantic you to death. I specifically recall them getting hit in the 2/16/96 event when the rest of dryslotted horribly, and they were pounding away and got over a foot.

What I meant.

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Most of these storms always have some sort of enhancement anyways when it's below 30F. I saw it all the time..it was a nice benefit to what sometimes can be a hostile place in winter. This storm is more of a different beast. The cold is going to allow processes for OES that normally do not happen.

 

 

Dendritic growth in the boundary layer for one....it will be very interesting to see how that plays out.

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Most of these storms always have some sort of enhancement anyways when it's below 30F. I saw it all the time..it was a nice benefit to what sometimes can be a hostile place in winter. This storm is more of a different beast. The cold is going to allow processes for OES that normally do not happen.

Normally a perennial jack pot candidate here on the cp, I bowed out of the running as soon as I saw how cold this would be.

Zero chance. Nada.

OES does not penetrate on the n shore.

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Normally a perennial jack pot candidate here on the cp, I bowed out of the running as soon as I saw how cold this would be.

Zero chance. Nada.

OES does not penetrate on the n shore.

 

Sometimes you guys even in Wilmington get that "indirect" ocean effect snow. It occurs when your winds are north, but aloft at like 950 or 900mb winds are ESE. You get an overrunning kind of deal hence "indirect" OES. Doesn';t add to a lot..but will add to totals or precede a main snow shield. See Jan 2005 just east of you.

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