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Jan 2-3 Big Snow Threat , Part 3


weathafella

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All about where the bands set up. It could be 9" it could be 18".  Part of me thinks the jackpot is just SE of me. 12 sounds good give or take.

 

I can just about guarantee the jackpot will be right on the lower end of rt 18 in South Weymouth and into Abington/Rockland

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. Thoughts for yby? 13"!

 

8-10" final call.

I bet this storm has a second max, dual bands. Another one will setup NW further NW than we would expect as the low drops out.

This is a great storm. Someone may get 20" and others may get the shaft at 3 or 5". I would hate to be one of your pros tonight.

Somewhere on the east slopes of the ORH hills in n ORH co up in sw NH (New Ipswich?).

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Yep right back to foxboro and mansfield. That should be the best hit zone.

 

Yeah I could see that too. 

 

Still looks great for all 3 of us... I will probably be looking in from the outside for a period of time, but should still be in a jackpot zone. I'm thinking areas like Newton and Arlington are in a 8-12 inch, a 10-14 range in BOS, MQE, Quincy etc with that jackpot area 14-18. 10-14 for PYM area as well

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The GFS deepens the mid-level lows fast enough that an area of deformation lift forms out in western SNE and then slowly collapses SE...which is why most of the region does well on the GFS. I think the issue of the GFS being more generous is lot more than just the model broadbrushing at a lower resolution. The upper levels are simply more impressive on the GFS than the NAM.

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The GFS deepens the mid-level lows fast enough that an area of deformation lift forms out in western SNE and then slowly collapses SE...which is why most of the region does well on the GFS. I think the issue of the GFS being more generous is lot more than just the model broadbrushing at a lower resolution. The upper levels are simply more impressive on the GFS than the NAM.

 

Agreed with that 100%

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The GFS deepens the mid-level lows fast enough that an area of deformation lift forms out in western SNE and then slowly collapses SE...which is why most of the region does well on the GFS. I think the issue of the GFS being more generous is lot more than just the model broadbrushing at a lower resolution. The upper levels are simply more impressive on the GFS than the NAM.

 

They are much more impressive and close to closing off at h5.

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Very is east, but they are in a very good spot.

They benefit from that weenie incline in elevation...they are the Tug Hill plateau of the s shore.

 

I wouldn't even consider that south shore though... Anywhere west of Brockton really. They're about 30 miles inland and 20 from bos harbor

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