weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Gfs robust with qpf. 42 hours 0.75 all of mass, ne ct including Tolland, all or ri, southern nh and vt. 1.0 canal eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS looks pretty good, steady last few runs It's a lot slower than the 18z, not very consistent at all TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 me="CT Rain" post="2599454" timestamp="1388633852"] GFS definitely more impressive all around. That's a big snowstorm for many. somebody needs to make up our minds, nowcast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I swear, it's like model musical chairs. Can we make up our minds? haha it's just that you are reading all the ups/downs of people scaling their thoughts with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well, I just had a met from GYNX tell me today that wiping was fine....as long as its not more frequently than 6 hour intervals. yea from what i just read in there only ones they want to clear are first order stations. makes no sense why they allow some but not others? heres the link to famartins thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41853-new-nws-snow-measurement-guide/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not bouncing around each run has proven to be a good strategy. We started with 6"-10" Tuesday morning and haven't wavered... still looking good tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Gfs is like the twc map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Gfs is like the twc map.That would be a hoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not bouncing around each run has proven to be a good strategy. We started with 6"-10" Tuesday morning and haven't wavered... still looking good tonight. it takes restraint to A) not put something out way early and b ) not waiver every 3 to 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well we got the word. Daughter off till Monday. Just for that I hope that system breaks really cold and snowy...lol. I'm good for 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's a lot slower than the 18z, not very consistent at all TBH.nothing is dude, going to have to watch it evolve, you are golden its us interior kids that are on the edge of going from moderate to something much more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 it's just that you are reading all the ups/downs of people scaling their thoughts with every run. I don't buy the aerial extent of this GFS run. That may be an erroneous thought but this looks like one of those "gotcha" GFS runs that occurs with every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not bouncing around each run has proven to be a good strategy. We started with 6"-10" Tuesday morning and haven't wavered... still looking good tonight. yup. Good starting point. If needed make slight tweaks as the day progresses. I am sticking with my 8" and Ray getting 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's a lot slower than the 18z, not very consistent at all TBH. compared to the other models I guess you could say it has been more consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 nothing is dude, going to have to watch it evolve, you are golden its us interior kids that are on the edge of going from moderate to something much more interesting. I'm in line for a solid early January snow here, but I may miss the heaviest OES banding which is likely to occur NW of here in that normal stripe from Weymouth/Braintree down to Easton/Sharon/Mansfield/Foxboro Brockton etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 new nws guidelines dont want you to clear the board anymore, basically just want snowdepth WOOOAH WOAH WOAH WOOOO HO HOOOO. The NWS Chaaaaanged their rules? This would be life changing for me. Litterally. I fully believe that swiping the board every 6 hours is the right way to do it. Is fair to the snow. And it's a Right of Passage for The Real weather people vs. the standard people that just think whatever is on the grounds is on the ground. I could go on for hours on this. They better have not changed it cause we should not change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS is nice for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't buy the aerial extent of this GFS run. That may be an erroneous thought but this looks like one of those "gotcha" GFS runs that occurs with every storm. could be broad brushed a bit. then again, it's not like this is pure OES storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not bouncing around each run has proven to be a good strategy. We started with 6"-10" Tuesday morning and haven't wavered... still looking good tonight.yeah I have been 8-10 but I still see an upside happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 compared to the other models I guess you could say it has been more consistent HA, excellent point. In that regard it's been pretty good. If we were to trace the 1" QPF line...it's barely moving run to run, it's the .75" that's bouncing. Crude measure I know but it's telling to the model bouncing the dynamics around for the interior folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Cory needs to go sledding naked while ripping off a tune on the squeezebox GFS slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 When it gets right down to go-time, the model with the greatest resolution is your own, in-house climo model. The models construct the situation, and we can apply that to are own internal databases of past experiences. Attleboro is a little too removed from the ocean....Situate is right on the ocean, and therefore unable to reap the benefits of that slight incline that is representative of the s shore topography. I like the S Weymouth, Holbrook, Avon, Stoughton, Brockton, Abington, Whitman, Rockland circle for jack pot potential. Positioned optimally to maximize fetch of the Atl, yet avail of the very same orographic phenomenon that the TUG does in LE events, though on a much smaller scale. On the N shore, the topography is a non issue, so the KBEV, Peabody, Danvers, Salem circle is likely to prevail in the battle for local supremacy. I suspect the reason being is that further out on the peninsula, the Manchester-by-the-sea, Gloucester, Rockport contigent is just a little too exposed to maximize the oceanic contributions, and further n, up toward Rowley, Ipswich, Newbury, Newburyport,, and Salisbury etc, they don't have quite as efficient a fetch off of the ocean due to the angle of the Maine coastline. In and around the immediate Boston metro portion of the coast line, from Lynn, down through the n half of Braintree, I suspect the angle of the fetch to not be optimal, however that is admittedly speculative on my part. Just some arbitrary analysis derived from my own experience of which precise spots should be favored in cold events, with oes contributions. Ultimately time will tell and I shall adjust accordingly for future considerations. Riding that call out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't buy the aerial extent of this GFS run. That may be an erroneous thought but this looks like one of those "gotcha" GFS runs that occurs with every storm. "gotcha" GFS runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 could be broad brushed a bit. then again, it's not like this is pure OES storm. A general .35 to .6 across the areas in "blue" on tonights GFS run seems reasonable back from the coast. Normally around this range the GFS is overdone and I think that's the case here. Ratios should make up some of the normal difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Riding that call out.typing in your sleep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Really loving my spot here on Kingston/Plympton live, wish i wasn't working and staying up in Quincy to avoid the Friday morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 WOOOAH WOAH WOAH WOOOO HO HOOOO. The NWS Chaaaaanged their rules? This would be life changing for me. Litterally. I fully believe that swiping the board every 6 hours is the right way to do it. Is fair to the snow. And it's a Right of Passage for The Real weather people vs. the standard people that just think whatever is on the grounds is on the ground. I could go on for hours on this. They better have not changed it cause we should not change. Take a pill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yeah I have been 8-10 but I still see an upside happening. I think that upside down this way is going to be hard to come by since the overrunning will be sort of meh south of the Pike. Generally to get double digits in SNE I like to see 2 mechanisms to help get us there.... i.e. overrunning and comma head/cold conveyorbelt or ocean enhancement + CCB etc. It's hard to get 10"+ when you're solely relying on the developing comma head or you're just relying on a strong thump of warm advection snows in a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 typing in your sleep? I'm sick. Ok, up at 5, so I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Warm air advection. http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/af/adv/wadv.rxml For some reason I am having trouble linking the whole site. Copy and paste the URL Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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