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Jan 2-3 Big Snow Threat , Part 3


weathafella

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Phil I'm not willing to go that far yet I was mainly commenting on the fact that there are schools already closed through Monday before the first flake fell.  Ridiculous IMO for a storm that may largely produce 6 to 10" or so over many, many hours in some parts of New England. 

 

Gotcha... and I agree. It would definitely be worth waiting till 09z or 12z to make the final call, but these days school superintendents would rather CYA than have to worry about a wrong call on the side that leaves kids stuck at school with worried parents unable to get to their kids with impassable roads. Even if the probability is low, the non-zero risk that scenario poses probably is too much to ignore outright. Society today is in quite a different position than it was 20-30 years ago, with most kids being driven to school rather than walking. Society has also become more risk averse in these sort of conditions and don't have enough faith in meteorological predictions of snowfall to make a call one way or the other with enough confidence... so they error on the side of caution.   

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Really?

 

I normally think they're pretty good but this one seemed way off the mark to me. 

 

I was surprised, too... I worked there for a year and they touted their superiority... there is an entire company devoted to forecast verification (Forecastwatch.com) and TWC was consistently at the top (above WU and Weather Central, before they were acquired, lol) - IIRC, NWS was kind of middle of the pack, AccuWx toward the bottom.  But that may have changed.

 

The scores are determined based on temperature errors and precipitation observations (yes/no, based on POP, but there likely was more to it than that).

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I wasn't endorsing the model in general, I just feel as though in this particular instance, it has a good handle on the mesoscale aspects in e MA.

That's it.

 

You agree that the JMA correctly signaled 2/06...has it been your go-to model since?

Every dog has its day.

 

 

Well it is continuing that trend at 00z... To say the least

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Gotcha... and I agree. It would definitely be worth waiting till 09z or 12z to make the final call, but these days school superintendents would rather CYA than have to worry about a wrong call on the side that leaves kids stuck at school with worried parents unable to get to their kids with impassable roads. Even if the probability is low, the non-zero risk that scenario poses probably is too much to ignore outright. Society today is in quite a different position than it was 20-30 years ago, with most kids being driven to school rather than walking. Society has also become more risk averse in these sort of conditions and don't have enough faith in meteorological predictions of snowfall to make a call one way or the other with enough confidence... so they error on the side of caution.   

 

Agreed it just bugs me that we've become this way.  I mean there are schools that are closed for two days that may not get 8 or 9" over the 2.5 days the schools are closed.  Nuts.

 

Far as the models go, I think the NAM evolution is the direction this is headed.  Moisture transport west of the eastern 1/2 or 40% of SNE is going to be difficult with the way this system winds up.

 

Over eastern areas it's a crush job.  It would snow into Friday evening right along the coast.

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