DomNH Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Also pretty good. The only map I don't care for really is Bouchard. Seems a tad low If he had a + after 10-12'' I'd think it's the best map out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 And make MarkO spit beef on the keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 sry if this has already been posted NECN? Not a fan of the single numbers. Is that the low/high/average in those areas? From a pure contouring, I don't mind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 sry if this has already been posted Never understood why NECN refuses to employ ranges...so dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NECN? Not a fan of the single numbers. Is that the low/high/average in those areas? From a pure contouring, I don't mind it. I always interpreted it as "up to x inches of snow". That way they can never say they busted badly because they never set a minimum amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 OuchLol, well you too, my FA home and work, believe me not good timing for work. Big inauguration ceremony, brunch scheduled Friday, lots of dignitaries and mucky mucks, on my shoulders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Keep working at it. Takes time when you get olderlmao true dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I like the single numbers if they're the average expected accumulation +/- an inch or two, but if that's the case narrow ranges would work just as well and probably not confuse the public as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What's that dry slot in CT all about? Backside of up glide from WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What's that dry slot in CT all about? Backside of up glide from WAA?Ryan wants the sun out tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Never understood why NECN refuses to employ ranges...so dumb. I agree. Am assuming that those numbers are the max. possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I am guessing that my area will be hit with a dry slot or whatever the correct term is for this particular situation. Had one last time. This will be the year of dry slots for me. Makes up for cashing in on some good snow the past few seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think a phased storm is possible between the polar jet stream disturbance over OK and the STJ disturbance over MX right now, at least energy from both streams will get involved. Moisture transport is ideal from the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I am guessing that my area will be hit with a dry slot or whatever the correct term is for this particular situation. Had one last time. This will be the year of dry slots for me. Makes up for cashing in on some good snow the past few seasons.8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 DT not even sure the let up or lull gets as far north as NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 DT not even sure the let up or lull gets as far north as NYCRGEM, my hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I am guessing that my area will be hit with a dry slot or whatever the correct term is for this particular situation. Had one last time. This will be the year of dry slots for me. Makes up for cashing in on some good snow the past few seasons. aka the Sucker Hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The trends on the HRRR are very discouraging for the first round of snowfall with relatively weak mid-level frontogenesis... will have to keep watching, but the short range forecast leaves much to be desired for those looking for significant overnight/early Thursday morning accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Fwiw: re: 18z GEFS, there are actually 5/10 members that bring the 0.75-1" contours through most if not all of SNE... more than the 12z members. The mean is skewed down by 2 members p001 and p010, but I think the "mode" and "median" in 18z may actually be more robust than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 RGEM, my hope.Tough to beat its consistency but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The trends on the HRRR are very discouraging for the first round of snowfall with relatively weak mid-level frontogenesis... will have to keep watching, but the short range forecast leaves much to be desired for those looking for significant overnight/early Thursday morning accumulations. This would be a major issue, but again do other meso's look so weak later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 DT not even sure the let up or lull gets as far north as NYC good! i''ll go to bed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 good! i''ll go to bed now.I like the one stop shopping here to get the range of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Burt thinks the lull gets up to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I like the one stop shopping here to get the range of thinking. as do i. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This would be a major issue, but again do other meso's look so weak later18z btv wrf tapers amounts from waa snows as wellLike a general .3-.4 inches for large part of n ma snh s vt (w of 495) w .5-.6 e orh hills and e slope Likes s ct a bit more and still crushes s shore and pym county. .5-.75 inside 128 (n shore) Lynn beverly cape Ann .75-1.0. Looks like difficult for a foot or more outside ne mass (inside rte 1/cape Ann and s shore /pym county/ cape. Unless waa snows deliver this would morph into pedestrian event outside e and s/se sne . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 DT not even sure the let up or lull gets as far north as NYC I'm not sure what he's smoking, but he is off the hook with regard to his thoughts for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This would be a major issue, but again do other meso's look so weak later The RAP (the parent of the HRRR) looks pretty unimpressive through 17z with no reflectivity exceeding 20 dBZ in New York State and points eastward. Obviously before the "main event" but worrisome for those expecting the front end to be more impressive (myself included). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ray if these waa snows dont produce more than 2-3/4 this event looks pedestrian outisde cape Ann/route 1 corridor and se mass /cape imo. And when i say predestination i mean under warning totals. We need big amounts from WAA and it needs to produce , i have only heard phil sound alarm on this looking weaker but ...meh this storm is sort of a mess. That lead vort w precip blossoming off se coast pushing best barcolinity off shore doesnt inspire much confidence in me of much of a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The RAP (the parent of the HRRR) looks pretty unimpressive through 17z with no reflectivity exceeding 20 dBZ in New York State and points eastward. Obviously before the "main event" but worrisome for those expecting the front end to be more impressive (myself included). I'm amazed so many schools are already closed for Thursday. Looks meager tonight. Strong hints of oes getting involved even by this panel though. We will have to see how that goes overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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