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Jan 2-3 Big Snow Threat , Part 3


weathafella

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I am guessing that my area will be hit with a dry slot or whatever the correct term is for this particular situation.  Had one last time.  This will be the year of dry slots for me.  Makes up for cashing in on some good snow the past few seasons.

aka the Sucker Hole

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The trends on the HRRR are very discouraging for the first round of snowfall with relatively weak mid-level frontogenesis... will have to keep watching, but the short range forecast leaves much to be desired for those looking for significant overnight/early Thursday morning accumulations. 

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Fwiw:

re: 18z GEFS, there are actually 5/10 members that bring the 0.75-1" contours through most if not all of SNE... more than the 12z members.

 

The mean is skewed down by 2 members p001 and p010, but I think the "mode" and "median" in 18z may actually be more robust than 12z.

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The trends on the HRRR are very discouraging for the first round of snowfall with relatively weak mid-level frontogenesis... will have to keep watching, but the short range forecast leaves much to be desired for those looking for significant overnight/early Thursday morning accumulations.

This would be a major issue, but again do other meso's look so weak later

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This would be a major issue, but again do other meso's look so weak later

18z btv wrf tapers amounts from waa snows as well

Like a general .3-.4 inches for large part of n ma snh s vt (w of 495) w .5-.6 e orh hills and e slope

Likes s ct a bit more and still crushes s shore and pym county. .5-.75 inside 128 (n shore) Lynn beverly cape Ann .75-1.0.

Looks like difficult for a foot or more outside ne mass (inside rte 1/cape Ann and s shore /pym county/ cape.

Unless waa snows deliver this would morph into pedestrian event outside e and s/se sne .

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This would be a major issue, but again do other meso's look so weak later

 

The RAP (the parent of the HRRR) looks pretty unimpressive through 17z with no reflectivity exceeding 20 dBZ in New York State and points eastward. Obviously before the "main event" but worrisome for those expecting the front end to be more impressive (myself included).

 

cref_t3sfc_f18.png

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Ray if these waa snows dont produce more than 2-3/4 this event looks pedestrian outisde cape Ann/route 1 corridor and se mass /cape imo. And when i say predestination i mean under warning totals.

We need big amounts from WAA and it needs to produce , i have only heard phil sound alarm on this looking weaker but ...meh this storm is sort of a mess.

That lead vort w precip blossoming off se coast pushing best barcolinity off shore doesnt inspire much confidence in me of much of a coastal.

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The RAP (the parent of the HRRR) looks pretty unimpressive through 17z with no reflectivity exceeding 20 dBZ in New York State and points eastward. Obviously before the "main event" but worrisome for those expecting the front end to be more impressive (myself included).

cref_t3sfc_f18.png

I'm amazed so many schools are already closed for Thursday. Looks meager tonight. Strong hints of oes getting involved even by this panel though. We will have to see how that goes overnight
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