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Jan 2-3 Big Snow Threat , Part 3


weathafella

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Looking at the twisterdata maps, the GFS QPF is like .6''-.7'' for most of SNE outside extreme eastern MA and the Cape which is more and CT which is less. Seems pretty reasonable to me and I wouldn't really expect any more for most of us, so I'd think 9-10'' is probably the upper limit for a lot of us outside of Eastern MA unless we see wall to wall 20:1.

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I don't see potential of tsnow anywhere. This isn't that kind of setup.

 

 

I Agree.  There really isn't much of a tight thermal gradient with this storm to cause that sort of thing.

 

Thundersnow potential is definitely there...not a signal for widespread potential but it's there  Decent amount of VV's being forecasted at 700mb...700-500mb lapse rates will also be increasing up over 6-6.5 C/KM which isn't bad.

 

Like Jerry and Steve said...best shot would probably be eastern MA 

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8-10 for you would be my call.

 

Exactly, but he is close to much more, just inside 128.

8-15" is a hell of a range though I guess it covers the meso jackpots and subsidence zones well. The problem is a lot of the public only remembers the high end of the ranges.

This.

Everyone keeps criticizing my 8-10" call for mby, yet Harv puts up an 8-15" RANGE, and everyone strokes their keyboard in awe of how "bullish" he is.

New Flash: Harv agrees with me!!

He's an on-air-met, and is not going to illustrate mesoscale screw jobs on his map, but psss....guess what, the 8" accounts for those.

He'd probably agree with me that the area just west of that oes is prime to see the lower end...aka mby.

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