weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 the no lull. I kind of envision a day that snows hard, lets up a bit then snows hard again. One of those deals but not 8 hours of cloudy I agree with that but I remember the lull 12/17 and it was real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Qpf: BOS to the canal.0.75 Canal east 1.0 Most of the rest is 0.5 Western LI and NYC: <0.5 most models have me between 0.5-0.75 10-14 seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS hammering the WAA snows pretty hard so no complaints from me. Living and dying by the WAA out here. the no lull. I kind of envision a day that snows hard, lets up a bit then snows hard again. One of those deals but not 8 hours of cloudy Um......I think that's what a lull is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS hammering the WAA snows pretty hard so no complaints from me. Yeah that could be pretty good around here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's not a bad run, but I think some in the interior need to keep their expectations in check. Looks good 25-50mi either side of the MA/NH-Vt border with the WAA and then far SNE and E MA start playing catch-up with E MA/Cape eventually taking the lead. No surprises really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 most models have me between 0.5-0.75 10-14 seems reasonable. 8-10 for you would be my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS hammering the WAA snows pretty hard so no complaints from me. I have a feeling the first part overproduces, partly due to ratios, and the round 2 is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the no lull. I kind of envision a day that snows hard, lets up a bit then snows hard again. One of those deals but not 8 hours of cloudy Overcast...flurries...freezing drizzle...snow grains...who cares? It's still a lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NYC weenies may have some unpleasant surprises if this run is even close. Still not beyond the realm of possibilities that a lot of others fall victim to a similar fate, either. If there were ever a candidate storm to hold one's optimism in check pending now-cast results ... .this is IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dotb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ray, where exactly are you? I'm basically at the intersection of 93/495, off of 133 near Andover CC. I'm guessing a bit NE of you, but was just curious as I generally use your posts as a gauge on what to expect here. I've been lurking for years, and post only on occasion in obs threads. Used to have a different profile when I was living in North Wilmington, but have since moved, although don't think enough to affect my weather. Anyway, happy New Year to you all. Keep up the good work for those of us that like to read your thoughts on these storms. And for the snow lovers, good luck over the next couple of days. I think the folks that are bullish on this one will be rewarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's not a bad run, but I think some in the interior need to keep their expectations in check. Looks good 25-50mi either side of the MA/NH-Vt border with the WAA and then far SNE and E MA start playing catch-up with E MA/Cape eventually taking the lead. No surprises really. E MA looks really good early in the game for OES to go with the WAA too...I won't be surprised to see areas near BOS have pretty good totals by noontime tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nasty hole in the 18z GFS. Gets all the way up into SNH. QPF cutback on western edge too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I have a feeling the first part overproduces, partly due to ratios, and the round 2 is meh. That's how I'm leaning. Maybe 4-8"/5-10" part 1 and then 2-4" part 2 for S NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Chicopee and Springfield schools have closed tomorrow and Friday. I'd lol but after this week's reminder about how "interesting" a lot of folks down south drive in the snow, it's no wonder schools close for fluffy few inches tomorrow. 15,000 out-of-staters in town this week and judging by the sh*tshow that even one inch of snow causes these folks, you'd think no one has ever seen or driven in the snow before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NYC weenies may have some unpleasant surprises if this run is even close. Wonder if Long Island even makes criteria for their Blizzard Warning on this GFS run, just looking at 925 winds and total qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 E MA looks really good early in the game for OES to go with the WAA too...I won't be surprised to see areas near BOS have pretty good totals by noontime tomorrow. Yeah...shouldn't have forgotten to mention the OES spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That's how I'm leaning. Maybe 4-8"/5-10" part 1 and then 2-4" part 2 for S NH? I feel the same in SNH. Tomorrow may be a bit of a surprise to some after some of the forecasts i heard on the radio today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nasty hole in the 18z GFS. Gets all the way up into SNH. QPF cutback on western edge too. Like I said earlier the gefs slumped se vs the earlier run at 12z let's see if that continued at 18z Expectations in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looking forward to waa mixed with big fat oes flakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 . Euro gives you and I 6"-10". I think 8". Maybe a little more Whoops my bad, wasn't up to date. 8" seems fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Like I said earlier the gefs slumped se vs the earlier run at 12z let's see if that continued at 18z Expectations in check 8-12" works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I feel the same in SNH. Tomorrow may be a bit of a surprise to some after some of the forecasts I heard on the radio today. My mom just texted me and said Mike E. on ZID said 1-3" tomorrow and the brunt coming Thu night. I replied with an "lol". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looking forward to waa mixed with big fat oes flakes... It's probably obvious as hell, but what is "waa"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's probably obvious as hell, but what is "waa"? Warm air advection. Aka overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Warm air advection. Aka overrunning. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Tomorrow? KORD 012151Z 05010KT 3/4SM R10L/3500VP6000FT -SN BLSN VV017 M06/M09 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP235 P0003 T10611094 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 My mom just texted me and said Mike E. on ZID said 1-3" tomorrow and the brunt coming Thu night. I replied with an "lol". Yup I heard 1-3/2-4 by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Qpf: BOS to the canal.0.75 Canal east 1.0 Most of the rest is 0.5 Western LI and NYC: <0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 BOX 4:39p re: Blizzard Warning... still plenty of time to pull the trigger if necessary by Thursday AM (and I'm guessing OKX went ahead with less lead time...? though as I posted above, not sure they'll verify): We thought a lot about issuing blizzard watches and warnings. Atthis time we think that the full criteria for a blizzard will notbe met...but it is very close. As such will upgrade the WinterStorm Watch to winter storm warnings and continue to mentionnear-blizzard conditions at times. The greatest threat will bealong the immediate East Coast of Massachusetts...as well as the coastalplain of southeast Massachusetts. Later shifts can reevaluate as we getcloser to this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow Harvey is bullish. 12-18 southeast ma 8-15 for many outside that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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