bobbutts Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 10-14", 10-18" for my area seems really aggressive. I guess we're counting on ratios 20-1 or more? rare to see forecasts exceed the clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 18z NAM gives 1.25" liquid over central LI. Can I book it? Tricky thing is we are getting closer to range when we can trust it, or is that just wishful thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sh*t sorry...lol http://weatherchest.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Mentioned this yesterday with Phill and it seemed warranted at the time. Gray ME has gone with freezing spray advisories. I'm wondering if that doesn't get extended into the Boston outer Harbor waters/CC Bay, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 18z NAM gives 1.25" liquid over central LI. Can I book it? Tricky thing is we are getting closer to range when we can trust it, or is that just wishful thinking? This is probably going to get tweeked around yet again over the next couple of cycles. There's just so much immense complexity in dealing with such a fast overall, progressive flow, and then having a strong S/W passing through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The pack will survive Monday IMHO.Based upon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 18z NAM gives 1.25" liquid over central LI. Can I book it? Tricky thing is we are getting closer to range when we can trust it, or is that just wishful thinking? Ed some SF maps have a JP's along the NorthShore (LOL) for the whole length of the island. Sound enhancement FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Based upon? 12z GFS would be ice to rain even along the coast. The Euro is more torchy though. If the GFS verified the interior wouldn't get above the mid-upper 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is probably going to get tweeked around yet again over the next couple of cycles. There's just so much immense complexity in dealing with such a fast overall, progressive flow, and then having a strong S/W passing through it. Agreed. I was just trying to enjoy the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Mount Holly has raised warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Based upon? Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 The pack will survive Monday IMHO.Based upon? 12 hours of 40s followed by flash freeze will not kill a 6-12+ snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z GFS would be ice to rain even along the coast. The Euro is more torchy though. If the GFS verified the interior wouldn't get above the mid-upper 30sWell I know that. I'm wondering what makes Jerry so sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Blizzard Warnings hosted for LI. Wish S CT could get one as well, but I doubt we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol 12-16 for SW CT? FWIW, DT isn't pulling his forecast out of thin air. He presents a pretty detailed write-up defending his bullish forecast. Here's the part of about eastern areas (i love how he calls our geography blessed, lol) But if you read through he also discusses why he thinks SW CT will do well. I think he's a bit overdone, but we'll see how it goes. Over Eastern New England including the eastern half of Connecticut.... central Eastern Massachusetts ....and all Rhode island your blessed geography is going to allow this area to get a major snowstorm. As I said yesterday I believe that the area from Boston down towards Cape Cod is going to see close to 2 feet of snow. The 12z GFS ensemble now has the 1.25- 1.50" band of precipitation over southeastern mass/ Cape Cod and 1.0 to 1.25" covering all of Boston and Rhode Island. Just do the math and assume a 15 or 20 to 1 ratio. ... 1.25 at 10:1 is 12-13" of snow but at 20:1 its 2 feet. I don't know of anybody else in New England is calling for that amount of for southeastern Mass snow but this doesn't seem to me to be a particularly difficult or outrageous call to make. https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/1st-call-map-and-discussion-/627146927332569 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12 hours of 40s followed by flash freeze will not kill a 6-12+ snowpack.the euro is 50-55 ish for hours and hours. Hope and pray its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 blizzard warnings up for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 FWIW, DT isn't pulling his forecast out of thin air. He presents a pretty detailed write-up defending his bullish forecast. Here's the part of about eastern areas (i love how he calls our geography blessed, lol) But if you read through he also discusses why he thinks SW CT will do well. I think he's a bit overdone, but we'll see how it goes. https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/1st-call-map-and-discussion-/627146927332569 I always knew e CT was ene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 12 hours of 40s followed by flash freeze will not kill a 6-12+ snowpack.the euro is 50-55 ish for hours and hours. Hope and pray its wrong I don't see a wound up system then as it won't happen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 As others have mentioned...I think tomorrow will be a frustrating day for those of us in CT...especially the valley and southern counties. I see the initial burst of WAA snows maybe dropping a quick 0.5-1" of snow early AM then getting sucker holed rest of the day while areas near the Pike maintain the steadier light snows. Will be a long day waiting for the coastal to finally take over tomorrow evening and fill us back in. And while DTs map overdoes it...I don't think we'd need that big of a shift to get some of the better banding into CT. While I wouldn't bank on it...12-14" totals wouldn't be out of reach if that were to happen. 18z NAM almost does it...but of course nothing else really backs it up. As for now, I think 4-8" is reasonable for CT with some spot 10" amounts in the hills. Side note...anyone else having issues with the Euro on wunderground? Hasn't updated for me since 12z yesterday. Hope their not dropping it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Mount Holly has raised warnings. The PNC map is going to change to a nice pretty PINK and RED in sections with the 4pm release. GYX just changed to warning also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the euro is 50-55 ish for hours and hours. Hope and pray its wrong wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 blizzard warnings up for LI. Blizzard watches possibly for Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Kevin has succeed in derailing this thread... Now back to topic... These isentropic lift scenarios can sometimes beat modeled timing... Now-cast off looking at the NWS rad mosaic and looping it that we could actually have light snow/flurries in the air during the night, tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 nice! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY356 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...STRONGWINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Blizzard warning LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I always knew e CT was ene I-395 due north into ORH and then up 190 basically cuts SNE in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 18z NAM gives 1.25" liquid over central LI. Can I book it? Tricky thing is we are getting closer to range when we can trust it, or is that just wishful thinking? If you look at NAM's simulated radar, you will see that we get nailed with a Norlun-ish jackpot band near the end. That would be extraordinary good luck for us if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Channel 40's updated--I think this looks pretty reasonable. Though Albany's lofty totals give me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ed some SF maps have a JP's along the NorthShore (LOL) for the whole length of the island. Sound enhancement FTW! I was looking at the 18Z NAM soundings related to that early in the event (12z Thurs). We'll have an ene wind early on with water temps around +6c, surface around 0 to -1 and 925s around -6. 850's are a bit warm (-3), not to mention from the south at that time, but I think that may keep it at least spitting some plates or needles here tomorrow AM even if the overrunning is to the north. ENE is actually a pretty good fetch around here...and a fairly rare direction with favorable uppers. Oh, and happy New Year Don! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.