MarkO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 FYI - this is what I'm going with at 5. Wow, 10-16 for me in Lowell? I'm with Ray, i just don't see it. I'm thinking more like 6" +/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice get out in it. GFS has had a good handle on the thermals , I wonder if the Euro's too cold in the lower levels is screwing up its dynamically induced precip.. Put on 50 miles this am, Left it was -8F, This old man is sore 1st time out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm not surprised as the skepticism that I'm encountering from the CT crowd because they don't experience the gradients that e MA does in these events....the coast line jets back, and sharpens, thus the temperature gradients and corresponding subsidence zones, are tightened and exaggerated. It slowly washes out as you get back into s central MA and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think Ray will be getting more than me What's your call? I'm going with 6" based on everything I'm seeing...plus the euro says only a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What's your call? I'm going with 6" based on everything I'm seeing...plus the euro says only a dusting. Euro gives you and I 6"-10". I think 8". Maybe a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 What's your call? I'm going with 6" based on everything I'm seeing...plus the euro says only a dusting Dusting for who? Euro flipped 12Z fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow, 10-16 for me in Lowell? I'm with Ray, i just don't see it. I'm thinking more like 6" +/- You'll have that probably by tomorrow night...6" that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ray is right, the subsidence is real...but I'm just not sold on a bad screw job like that and the stuff tomorrow has a chance to pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You'll have that probably by tomorrow night...6" that is. Yeah I agree. Dry slot never really makes it up there plus column is cold enough north of the Pike that even lift between BL and 800mb or so is enough to drop accumulating snow. Down here once that 700mb dry slot moves in I think we go to snow grains. The 20:1 crowd is going to be in trouble during the day tomorrow south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 THE BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF THEFRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NY STATE INTO SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT BENEFITS FROMTHE SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN EXITING 110KNOT JET STREAK. THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL THAT MESOSCALE BANDINGWILL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE IS ENOUGHMODEL SPREAD IN PLACEMENT OF THE BANDING TO ATTEMPT TO COVER THEMOST LIKELY PLACEMENTS MORE BROADLY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FORBANDING...SLR VALUES IN THIS AREA COULD BE AS HIGH AS 15:1. THEMODEL CONSENSUS QPF MAXIMA STRETCHES FROM EASTERN NY STATE INTOSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SO A SWATH OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WASPLACED HERE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY 00Z GEFS ANDECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Getting ready for my 2-4 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You'll have that probably by tomorrow night...6" that is. Respect the WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Mr. Whoa is me you are not getting 6". Just being that cold with that amount of QPF and everyone's mama and brother going with a general foot. Don't see it. I could see CT getting the shaft with some slants 3" inflated just to keep up with the going to have's. OES will pad 6+" IMO on he southshore of MA. Scoots looks GOLDEN. In the real world it comes down to how this all meshes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow, 10-16 for me in Lowell? I'm with Ray, i just don't see it. I'm thinking more like 6" +/- Don't see that at all. 10-14 is much closer to model consensus. 6" not out of the question during the WAA occurring in part 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Getting ready for my 2-4 here Looks reasonable...going to be -10F with wind chills to -30F on Thursday night with a couple inches of snow possible. We'll see how cold we can actually get it to snow at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow, this is some pretty heavy wording here ... * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW/GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLYLOW WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTINGSNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIMEALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLYFRIDAY...RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. TRAVEL MAY BECOMEIMPOSSIBLE." Wonder if they'll pull the B-criteria trigger here shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm going to got ahead a bun myself for the statement I am about to make ... ... but I am actually really interested in seeing the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm going to got ahead a bun myself for the statement I am about to make ... ... but I am actually really interested in seeing the 18z NAM It'd be nice to see full consensus but in reality all models continue to agree on blizzard conditions in at least coastal sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Asked earlier but got no responses--clearly not a popular topic. But, any guesses to how BOX might proceed with advisories and warnings? I guessed earlier that perhaps going with an adivsory for the northern tier tonight and evolve into a warning for the entire region tomorrow afternoon? It's not clean but the two part system isn't a really clean one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm going to got ahead a bun myself for the statement I am about to make ... ... but I am actually really interested in seeing the 18z NAM This will be the run that takes the low across nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Asked earlier but got no responses--clearly not a popular topic. But, any guesses to how BOX might proceed with advisories and warnings? I guessed earlier that perhaps going with an adivsory for the northern tier tonight and evolve into a warning for the entire region tomorrow afternoon? It's not clean but the two part system isn't a really clean one.Why would they go with an advisory to the north when the whole region sees at least a couple inches tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Probably the best map we've seen out to date @danburyweather: New snowfall map: http://t.co/eKm0o5Vj14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It'd be nice to see full consensus but in reality all models continue to agree on blizzard conditions in at least coastal sections. Congrat's Messenger and the South Shore on the 12z BTV4 run....its really a good model to pick up those enhancements, but look at that coastal front jackpot on the south shore. Nice easterly fetch upslope into the ORH Hills and East Slopes, too. This is run total precipitation through 7pm Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Congrat's Messenger and the South Shore on the 12z BTV4 run....its really a good model to pick up those enhancements, but look at that coastal front jackpot on the south shore. Nice easterly fetch upslope into the ORH Hills and East Slopes, too. This is run total precipitation through 7pm Friday... btv4.jpg I am about 6-8 hours from full fledged excitement. I'm not prone to throw out analogs but the setup could yield some craziness like 05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why would they go with an advisory to the north when the whole region sees at least a couple inches tonight? I suppose it would be warranted. But, no one's forecast for a couple inches tonight. Around an inch or so is the current call for tonight. Official forecast up here is for an additinal 3-5 tomorrow; a little less further south. I guess they could go straight warning assuming 8" over 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I could see all BOX counties South of the Pike including NE MA getting a Blizzard Watch for a period of time, but Warnings should be limited to SE areas and Coastal CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Congrat's Messenger and the South Shore on the 12z BTV4 run....its really a good model to pick up those enhancements, but look at that coastal front jackpot on the south shore. Nice easterly fetch upslope into the ORH Hills and East Slopes, too. This is run total precipitation through 7pm Friday... btv4.jpg Nice hit for them. Am I reading the colors wrong? I'm surprised that it has so many areas less than .5"??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice hit for them. Am I reading the colors wrong? I'm surprised that it has so many areas less than .5"???That model never scores well on qpf 's only useful for picking up local mesoscale features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 sref plumes cut back like 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Asked earlier but got no responses--clearly not a popular topic. But, any guesses to how BOX might proceed with advisories and warnings? I guessed earlier that perhaps going with an adivsory for the northern tier tonight and evolve into a warning for the entire region tomorrow afternoon? It's not clean but the two part system isn't a really clean one. They have some pretty heavy-handed wording in their threat assessment that's associated with the current WWA, where they discuss the plausibility of dangerously cold wind chill, wind, and blowing snow hazard reducing visibility to whiteout, and that traveling might become impossible for eastern zones. That is about as close to pulling the trigger for Blizzard as they can get without actually pulling the trigger, so we'll wait and see what happens on the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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