BostonWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 When it gets right down to go-time, the model with the greatest resolution is your own, in-house climo model. The models construct the situation, and we can apply that to are own internal databases of past experiences. Attleboro is a little too removed from the ocean....Situate is right on the ocean, and therefore unable to reap the benefits of that slight incline that is representative of the s shore topography. I like the S Weymouth, Holbrook, Avon, Stoughton, Brockton, Abington, Whitman, Rockland circle for jack pot potential. Positioned optimally to maximize fetch of the Atl, yet avail of the very same orographic phenomenon that the TUG does in LE events, though on a much smaller scale. On the N shore, the topography is a non issue, so the KBEV, Peabody, Danvers, Salem circle is likely to prevail in the battle for local supremacy. I suspect the reason being is that further out on the peninsula, the Manchester-by-the-sea, Gloucester, Rockport contigent is just a little too exposed to maximize the oceanic contributions, and further n, up toward Rowley, Ipswich, Newbury, Newburyport,, and Salisbury etc, they don't have quite as efficient a fetch off of the ocean due to the angle of the Maine coastline. In and around the immediate Boston metro portion of the coast line, from Lynn, down through the n half of Braintree, I suspect the angle of the fetch to not be optimal, however that is admittedly speculative on my part. Just some arbitrary analysis derived from my own experience of which precise spots should be favored in cold events, with oes contributions. Ultimately time will tell and I shall adjust accordingly for future considerations. Sounds right, but I'm curious as to why you say topography is a non issue on the No Shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro is basically a 6-12 hour blizzard for E MA. Nice--congrats easterners. GFS-like? Eager to hear the details for important places like GC. MPM (many pots mike). Those were temps. Sorry. I forgot the F. -10F to -15F LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro sounds yummy... more details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 nice news on the EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 1.00" on the Cape 0.75 BOS-UUU 0.50-0.75 the rest of SNE Pretty big change from last run only having .5 BOS and .6 Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Its def nice to see the Euro come more aboard for the Thu night deal...it has definitely not handled this system well. Evne inside of 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 She's on board now. Better late than never. All of SNE is over 0.50" QPF. 0.75 from near BOS (just SE like S shore) and southeastward. 1" on ACK. Does the EC provide any of the overrunning tonight along RT 2/VT/NH, Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is it also doing the 2 part deal? Overrunning then coastal developer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not that anyone asked ... I must admit that I do not have a confident vision on what will transpire of this event. Very little at that. For one, the whole advent of the thing has never really sat well with me, particularly when stepping back and noting the highly compressed flow in the SE well prior to the wave amplitude passing through the lower OV/TV regions. A good bit of that arriving amplitude should by physics differentiate toward a loss, given to the speed of the maelstrom absorbing it, and that would ultimately reduce cyclogenesis potential (enter migraine explanation here....) But, it can still happen; the wave amplitude has to be that much stronger such that the differential still goes the other way. Not sure this is that wave... Then there are devilish details, such as it being "too cold" (eyes roll...). What that means is, too dry in actuality. The 12z NAM may in fact not be a whole helluva lot different in the mechanics of this event compared to the 00z and 06z runs, but the QPF panel on this latest run (to me) almost looks like a hygroscopic robbery in progress. However, I look upstream around southern Lower Michichan, where AZO is 15/3 with steady light snow for the past ...12 hours or so, and figure yeah ...when that lead isentropic lift axis evolves E and cuts over our region we'll probably do the same. It's just that balancing all this tedium to come up with amounts is tantamount to not possible... Best guess is about all one can do. And that is prior to any "main low" down the coast. You know, it is possible in mind that we never do get into the main low for much of the SNE region, and that all we get is that lead isentropic band of light snow falling into arctic cold, dust and teeny dendrites at 1 mi vis type stuff. Then the long awaited forcing finally encroaches upon the coast and whatever remains of the baroclinicity post the premature spin up racing to England (that's whole 'nother bag of bs to deal with...), the new low winds up, clips the Cape, while we go dim sun flurries in bitter cold wind, NW of the CCC. Those towering heights and fast winds fields at mid levels in the SE would love nothing better than to force a flatter solution. But, that is not what is currently modeled, so one cannot really force that prediction -- I would say just do not be surprised if something like that evolves. I bet you would find that just about every storm that has busted seaward, where you went to bed with vision of winter scenery for your dawn, only to awaken to sun beams cutting through your curtains, all of them had higher heights and fast wind speeds at mid levels over Florida. I scanned over the water vapor imagery and I really do not see a very impressive "dive" characteristic to the atmosphere ranging from the B.C. cordillera to the MV this morning. I would like to have seen a more impressive incursion appeal, with even a better lead "curl" in the western TV, for 24 hours prior to a major coastal. Yet, there is some vague impression that is all there; it is just not that impressive to me. We shall see... It almost seems the path of least regret is just to go with what our guts told us three days ago: plan on a light to moderate snow, but combined with such cold and wind, may push it into a more significant impact bracket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro is basically a 6-12 hour blizzard for E MA. Are we to far west for the strongest winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Pretty big change from last run only having .5 BOS and .6 Cape. The updated Euro is not the same as what we're used to. This only hammers that home again..... Nice storm incoming, feel better about a 6-12 event here now with the possibility of more (much). Plenty of time to refine. Stores are empty right now which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Better late than never. Does the EC provide any of the overrunning tonight along RT 2/VT/NH, Will? Yes it has the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This one is a head scratcher for school superintendents. Have school Thurs then early release and no school Friday? Cancel both days? Open Friday with a delay and single digit temps (old buildings that take a while to heat up)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thanks for the QPF info guys for SNE. Could anyone give us some info as to QPF for C/NNE for all of those up here. Happy New Year and thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 My maps hve the 0.75 to include the immediate shore of ne ma down to Boston and mre generosly SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here comes my QPF tag - What the heck are so excited about for 0.5"-0.6"???? You guys make it sound life we all got 1.25-1.75". **QPF QUEEN** (Though I am kind of serious since 0.6" doesn't equate to the 8-15 predictions from here to TWC to Timbuktu that are out there right now. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 15z RPM. I like for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 My maps hve the 0.75 to include the immediate shre of ne ma down to Boston and mre generosly SE. Mine do too..my initial totals were through 12z Fri, but there a bit more between 12z and 18z Fri...so it lines up with the 0.75 getting into BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Americans FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 15z RPM. I like for here. Major KTOL shaft zone going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro is basically a 6-12 hour blizzard for E MA. Haha... I just waxed philosophical about how this could be a major screw job to those holding out for a bigger snow/wind thing, and then the Euro like "knows that"? and goes out of it's way to make me look like a big huge azzhole. But, in my defense, I started of that opining diatribe by stating that I don't have very much confidence, if any, in what will transpire from this thing. I will say this ... it's been a lovely modeling ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sounds right, but I'm curious as to why you say topography is a non issue on the No Shore There isn't a general incline....the overall layout is flat. There are some small hills in the Arlington, Newton area.....west side of Boston, but its not a real general incline, and is not aligned will with the fetch off of the ocean due to the concave shape of Boston Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thanks for the QPF info guys for SNE. Could anyone give us some info as to QPF for C/NNE for all of those up here. Happy New Year and thanks in advance. .5 from you to pwm. .25 from btv-bml-bgr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here comes my QPF tag - What the heck are so excited about for 0.5"-0.6"???? You guys make it sound life we all got 1.25-1.75". **QPF QUEEN** (Though I am kind of serious since 0.6" doesn't equate to the 8-15 predictions from here to TWC to Timbuktu) Here comes my QPF tag - What the heck are so excited about for 0.5"-0.6"???? You guys make it sound life we all got 1.25-1.75". **QPF QUEEN** (Though I am kind of serious since 0.6" doesn't equate to the 8-15 predictions from here to TWC to Timbuktu that are out there right now. ) High ratios could give 0.6" qpf 8-12" for yby... BOX has mentioned 15:1 to 20:1 a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 That rpm map jacks scooter with 16-20 while Kevin gets 2-4? Seems a ilittle nuts to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 15z RPM. I like for here. That doesn't look bad at all too me really. I could see that or something close to that verifying. Even has that little 16-20 inch blob right over the potential jackpot areas discussed. ( Weymouth, Brockton, stoughton) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z RGEM totals. Thru 48h with more to come. Approaching 1.20" in SE MA. Looks overdone to me. 12z rgem 1-1-14.gif I actually think its very much giving an important signal for the OE thats likely going to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There isn't a general incline....the overall layout is flat. There are some small hills in the Arlington, Newton area.....west side of Boston, but its not a real general incline, and is not aligned will with the fetch off of the ocean due to the concave shape of Boston Harbor. Cape Ann also creates a natural convergence zone just north of it...so the OES there tends not to penetrate quite as far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 105,000 fans outside in 12 degree snowy weather watching hockey, winter lovers everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There isn't a general incline....the overall layout is flat. There are some small hills in the Arlington, Newton area.....west side of Boston, but its not a real general incline, and is not aligned will with the fetch off of the ocean due to the concave shape of Boston Harbor. On that logic someone in Quincy does extremely well with the Blue Hills, correct? With MQE approaching 670 feet, and there are like 25-35 other hills in the area over 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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