OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There is the issue, it's not a dry slot in the standard approach more two different processes in a developing storm, someone who benefits from no lull will get smoked. That's probably a better way of phrasing it, it's not a dry slot in the sense of a SWFE of something like that. It's a lull in precip (due to forcing aloft). You aren't in the WAA/frontogenesis snowfall, nor has the low started to develop precip around its circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 But is it closer or further off? It was definitely more robust than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Actually a great approach rather than cherry-picking the model of choice. A blend of all and if there are clear outliers, either throw those #s out or weight them accordingly. Love It!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 MPM (many pots mike). Those were temps. Sorry. I forgot the F. -10F to -15F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There is the issue, it's not a dry slot in the standard approach more two different processes in a developing storm, someone who benefits from no lull will get smoked. I just posted in the NYC thread that anyone who gets under that dry area for more than a few hours may have freezing drizzle problems, could make the roads a complete crap show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There is the issue, it's not a dry slot in the standard approach more two different processes in a developing storm, someone who benefits from no lull will get smoked. I agree, the lull won't be an end all be all really either. The WAA snows are focused up north, coastal south. It's more of just a break as I see it. No big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Actually he's not. Look on his twitter. He's going 4-8". Don't like him and never will but he's only going 12+ for east coast of ma He is good Met Joe Bastardi............. He says NYC. Weather 4,8 or 16(and this could dump 1-2 feet-ratio) Rarely is the kind of wind and cold while snowing seen in these areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 1st Call: BOS, ORH, PVD, HYA, CQX: 9-15" CEF, BDL, HFD, DXR, BDR, HVN, GON: 6-12" (higher N and E) ACK: 5-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think we even lull up here for a little bit late Thursday afternoon as the WAA shuts off. I'm gonna up to 3-6'' during the day Thursday and 4-7'' Thursday night into Friday and I think that's fair. Hopefully the Euro isn't as paltry as 00z because that gives me some pause as to how potent Thursday night will be here away from the best snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That area has looked good to me, or from Attlehole out to Scituate or Duxbury When it gets right down to go-time, the model with the greatest resolution is your own, in-house climo model. The models construct the situation, and we can apply that to are own internal databases of past experiences. Attleboro is a little too removed from the ocean....Situate is right on the ocean, and therefore unable to reap the benefits of that slight incline that is representative of the s shore topography. I like the S Weymouth, Holbrook, Avon, Stoughton, Brockton, Abington, Whitman, Rockland circle for jack pot potential. Positioned optimally to maximize fetch of the Atl, yet avail of the very same orographic phenomenon that the TUG does in LE events, though on a much smaller scale. On the N shore, the topography is a non issue, so the KBEV, Peabody, Danvers, Salem circle is likely to prevail in the battle for local supremacy. I suspect the reason being is that further out on the peninsula, the Manchester-by-the-sea, Gloucester, Rockport contigent is just a little too exposed to maximize the oceanic contributions, and further n, up toward Rowley, Ipswich, Newbury, Newburyport,, and Salisbury etc, they don't have quite as efficient a fetch off of the ocean due to the angle of the Maine coastline. In and around the immediate Boston metro portion of the coast line, from Lynn, down through the n half of Braintree, I suspect the angle of the fetch to not be optimal, however that is admittedly speculative on my part. Just some arbitrary analysis derived from my own experience of which precise spots should be favored in cold events, with oes contributions. Ultimately time will tell and I shall adjust accordingly for future considerations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I just posted in the NYC thread that anyone who gets under that dry area for more than a few hours may have freezing drizzle problems, could make the roads a complete crap show. I don't think that will happen in SNE...maybe further south. The 900mb range looks too cold to support FZDZ....we might actually be able to form dendrites in the low levels with shallow lift because of how cold the BL is...maybe along the south coast it gets more marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think we even lull up here for a little bit late Thursday afternoon as the WAA shuts off. I'm gonna up to 3-6'' during the day Thursday and 4-7'' Thursday night into Friday and I think that's fair. Hopefully the Euro isn't as paltry as 00z because that gives me some pause as to how potent Thursday night will be here away from the best snow. Not sure it ever shuts off completely, but definitely looks disorganized as the low starts to consolidate to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah, Ray, that area in SE MA you mentioned is better. I sort of cheated painting a broad line from Attleboro over to the coast. Brockton maybe for the southern winner, Beverly for NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I just posted in the NYC thread that anyone who gets under that dry area for more than a few hours may have freezing drizzle problems, could make the roads a complete crap show.totally an issue down there swct probably fine mist stuff that freezes to your clothes as you walk, bad stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Upped my totals just a bit to better account for the WAA snows Thursday morning and for the OES snows across eastern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the RPM is pretty much the definition of haves/have nots. substantial along extreme E MA coast and a secondary axis of good snow across NYS...elsewhere pretty ugly.I know this is an old run but this is what really worries me about having confidence in these massive swaths of substantial accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 euro definitely sharper and stronger aloft...we'll see if it gets it together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 euro definitely sharper and stronger aloft...we'll see if it gets it together Yep...definitely better. Thu night looks better too as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 much improved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks alot better. Thats a fun 6 hours on the Cape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro is basically a 6-12 hour blizzard for E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 But is it closer or further off? TBH I don't pay much attention to the UKMET ever...I just looked at the panels for pay here on this site. It's a nice strong low, it's a good hit. I mean...I'm all set with lows close to shore this year anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Breakdown for the whole region if possible?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 She's on board now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 that is solid. GFS ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Breakdown for the whole region if possible?? Still coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro is basically a 6-12 hour blizzard for E MA. What's up with the Euro this year...last to the party again. Well that should really put everyone at ease. Time to begin the preparations and enjoy what's about to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 1.00" on the Cape 0.75 BOS-UUU 0.50-0.75 the rest of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What's up with the Euro this year...last to the party again. Well that should really put everyone at ease. Time to begin the preparations and enjoy what's about to come. It was also first to the party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 All of SNE is over 0.50" QPF. 0.75 from near BOS (just SE like S shore) and southeastward. 1" on ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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