Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You have to wonder if that area up around Sailsbury, Newburyport, and Amesbury..near the coast in extreme ne MA may be one of the winners. Avoid the dry slut, and get some oes contributions in round 2 with the coastal. think the question for those areas is how long the flow remains NE as opposed to N. sometimes when these things are late in the development stage the low level flow bends around relatively quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not just the Euro, NAM and GFS both have really good 850 mb frontogenesis just sitting overhead tonight. What does this mean for Coastal Cumberland County (Portland/Scarborough and points south)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Closes off H7 over the Cape on Friday morning. I'd like to see that happen near s RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I thought they looked similar to 6z overall here. For here they are but there's a notable SE tick vs 6z in the 72 hr accum. .75 was in VT, through most of western MA and west central CT. 12z central CT, just west of ORH up into NH. Like I said notable only in that it may have come a bit more into line with the middle solutions in pin pointing the hardest hit areas. Very little/negligible change over our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 4-8" for CT. http://wxedgect.s3.amazonaws.com/lglead/2013/12/image_258d7d04409af0d8_2d02bcca2029b3b8.jpg I like the 8-12" nod to northern Tolland County though. The snow is one aspect but I think another aspect of this storm is the cold. The combination of cold and snow and potential for double digits below zero here on Saturday morning are what I am watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd like to see that happen near s RI. Well margin of error is probably going to include that. Good spot for it overall for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What does this mean for Coastal Cumberland County (Portland/Scarborough and points south)? It will start snowing tonight, couple inches by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NCEP has low confidence but favored the 12z GFS....I think they're not biting on the 0z Euro either 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFSNO SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORS WERE SEEN ON THE NAM OR GFSIMPACTING THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST....ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN U.S...PREFERENCE: 12Z GFSCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 think the question for those areas is how long the flow remains NE as opposed to N. sometimes when these things are late in the development stage the low level flow bends around relatively quickly. Excellent point. My final call for jackpot: KBEV 15" S Weymouth to Brockton- 15" Someone in s NH will prob see a foot from fronto. 8-12" range mby....gun-to-weenie- 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why is this so hard for some to comprehend? The 06z NAM was a clear outlier. The 09z SREFs, as far as I know, are based off that, so we should see the 15z SREFs come back down some as well.ok Mr Met, lol. I like Quincy approach, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Tick up in amounts from on air mets. Harvey and Burbank seem to have a good handle. Bouchard seems a little low, and has only a small area of 10-12. My bro is a senior in high school, and he said that he thinks school will be in session tomorrow from what he's hearing. Unlikely Friday from my point of view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I like the 8-12" nod to northern Tolland County though. The snow is one aspect but I think another aspect of this storm is the cold. The combination of cold and snow and potential for double digits below zero here on Saturday morning are what I am watching. I could see -10 to -14 or so imby. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I like the 8-12" nod to northern Tolland County though. The snow is one aspect but I think another aspect of this storm is the cold. The combination of cold and snow and potential for double digits below zero here on Saturday morning are what I am watching. Sure, but I personally don't see many towns in CT getting 10"+, do you? 6-10" is a great call for the state as a whole, maybe a select few towns get a few more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 With 8-12 in NE and NW hillsremember all the dry slot calls for CT that ended in someone's back yard last time? Yes there will be one, who gets it tbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sure, but I personally don't see many towns in CT getting 10"+, do you? 6-10" is a great call for the state as a whole, maybe a select few towns get a few more. Yeah there's always going to be lollis....and hopefully people understand that unless it's widespread, it realyl doesn't undermine a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NWS NY issued their statement my apologies if this was already posted it was an interesting read and they use the B word. http://ow.ly/sbM7i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I thought they looked similar to 6z overall here. get the microscope out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bastardi is ALSO calling for 1-2 FEET in NYC. Agreed those Awful 12z Runs? No.Actually he's not. Look on his twitter. He's going 4-8". Don't like him and never will but he's only going 12+ for east coast of ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Closes off H7 over the Cape on Friday morning.I think the GFS suite has a good handle on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ok Mr Met, lol. I like Quincy approach, Actually a great approach rather than cherry-picking the model of choice. A blend of all and if there are clear outliers, either throw those #s out or weight them accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 remember all the dry slot calls for CT that ended in someone's back yard last time? Yes there will be one, who gets it tbdI think a lot or people across Connecticut Rhode Island and mass get it.I see it as more of a lull before the coastal gets going really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Actually a great approach rather than cherry-picking the model of choice. A blend of all and if there are clear outliers, either throw those #s out or weight them accordingly.He agrees it is not perfect and is not his forecast, but i like the look of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ugh...it never ever gets any easier.............I have really been studying the ku books and the pattern seems to go as far back as their tracking of storms in ten year intervals (1900). and it really doesn't seem to matter the set up it seems. I am really worried about the waa stuff though I'm sure you'd see similar patterns in the Hudson Valley and Champlain Valley. Nature of the beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Actually a great approach rather than cherry-picking the model of choice. A blend of all and if there are clear outliers, either throw those #s out or weight them accordingly.certainly easy to compare and contrast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 remember all the dry slot calls for CT that ended in someone's back yard last time? Yes there will be one, who gets it tbd There it is, apparently because it's discussed, I'm taking away someones snow. Why can't we discuss what models show? Because it's voodoo around here to discuss negatives. Reality can't be discussed. Did you miss my post and the one by Will and OceanStwx? There will be a dryslot. Looks like everyone S of the MA Pike will likely be impacted by it based on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think a lot or people across Connecticut Rhode Island and mass get it. I see it as more of a lull before the coastal gets going really There is the issue, it's not a dry slot in the standard approach more two different processes in a developing storm, someone who benefits from no lull will get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd like to see that happen near s RI. BDR/HVN, please. NCEP has low confidence but favored the 12z GFS....I think they're not biting on the 0z Euro either 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS NO SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORS WERE SEEN ON THE NAM OR GFS IMPACTING THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. ...ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND COASTAL LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN U.S... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE LOL--below average confidence at this time frame is a little disconcerting. I could see -10 to -14 or so imby. Not too shabby. Good luck with that. I'm riding 6-10 for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There it is, apparently because it's discussed, I'm taking away someones snow. Why can't we discuss what models show? Because it's voodoo around here to discuss negatives. Reality can't be discussed. Did you miss my post and the one by Will and OceanStwx? There will be a dryslot. Looks like everyone S of the MA Pike will likely be impacted by it based on modeling.wth are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 UKMET has the low pretty far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 UKMET has the low pretty far offshore. But is it closer or further off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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