OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There's alwYs been one modeled south of NYC the Pike. No surprises there FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There's alwYs been one modeled south of NYC. No surprises there And it will likely creep up into CT/RI/MA as Will stated as the WAA lifts N and before the coastal gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 And it will likely creep up into CT/RI/MA as Will stated as the WAA lifts N and before the coastal gets going. Yeah I'm starting to think we'll accumulate very little here in CT between 12z and 00z on Thursday... a bit before and more after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hard to takes those SREF too seriously when more than half spit out 20+ for PWM. Yeah, I find them fun to look at though. Personally I just like to get a sense of where they are pegging the best snows(not qpf or totals) as you get closer to an event and ignore everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah I'm starting to think we'll accumulate very little here in CT between 12z and 00z on Thursday... a bit before and more after. I'd stick with you 6-10" totals for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Might pull off back to back single digit highs here and then the MEX plops a -21F for CON Sat AM. Should be a fun 48hrs with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think the lull will make some of the general public feel like the forecasts were overdone, then the firehose gets turned on Someone might get 20" on the coast or a little inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah, I find them fun to look at though. Personally I just like to get a sense of where they are pegging the best snows(not qpf or totals) as you get closer to an event and ignore everything else. There is a use for everything, SREFs included. They are nicely highlighting eastern MA for snowfall, so that provides you with some kernel of truth. But absolute values? No thanks, I'll toss the 40+ inches the extremes show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd stick with you 6-10" totals for CT.@BradNBCCT: From late tonight into Friday, significant snow, over 10" in many towns, strong wind and bitter cold...sub zero to follow!#FirstAlertCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ukie's 500mb looks really good, surface doesn't match it though, I like the trend though, I only look at the model for trends lol At some point, whacking it to H5 just has to lose some luster...I mean, folks don't run plows in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 @BradNBCCT: From late tonight into Friday, significant snow, over 10" in many towns, strong wind and bitter cold...sub zero to follow! #FirstAlertCT i trust this guy a lot: Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan1m Becoming more confident in a long lull in the snow during the day tomorrow. Some accumulation in the AM then snow tapers odd during day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There is a use for everything, SREFs included. They are nicely highlighting eastern MA for snowfall, so that provides you with some kernel of truth. But absolute values? No thanks, I'll toss the 40+ inches the extremes show. Good qualitative tool.....not quantitatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd stick with you 6-10" totals for CT. I agree. As I pointed out earlier in a sense. They may miss the good WAA snows and the coastal storm setup favors easy. Pretty tough call, but I think a lot of places in ct, especially west will verify 6-10. I could see a foot in far eastern areas if it breaks right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 i trust this guy a lot: Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan1m Becoming more confident in a long lull in the snow during the day tomorrow. Some accumulation in the AM then snow tapers odd during day. No doubt This Hanrahan guy is a good met. His chief met Brad is too. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nothing new about that here. Like the Pretenders said: "it's a thin line......" That is one ugly dry slot Ya think? Yeeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro definitely bothers me for really hammering the higher totals....but hopefully 12z sheds some light. The other guidance at 12z hasn't really backed down. Ukie ramped up too at 12z. Yep...the Euro has been slow at times to pick up on higher QPF but it's usually had the pretty decent idea by now. If it comes towards .8 or .9" down here I think that's a good sign. The 12z GEFS trimmed back ever so slightly with the .75" line, but they've been very solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nothing new about that here. ugh...it never ever gets any easier.............I have really been studying the ku books and the pattern seems to go as far back as their tracking of storms in ten year intervals (1900). and it really doesn't seem to matter the set up it seems. I am really worried about the waa stuff though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 No doubt This Hanrahan guy is a good met. His chief met Brad is too. Interesting What's your buddy Quicy tweeting out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GEFS are juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Closes off H7 over the Cape on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GEFS are juicy. Worth noting they pulled the .75 S and E a good bit on the fringe. 1 and 1.25 barely moved in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What's your buddy Quicy tweeting out?Youre on Twitter. Give him a follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here are the last five cycles of the NAM's QPF for ORH, showing a clear trend toward greater impact: .68 .82 .92 1.27 .61 .... .61 ?!?! W-T-F- See, I am sure people have their own reasons, but I can see that, right there, as a particularly infuriating one wrt the NAM, and why it 86's its own reputation for many. There were both synoptic arguments toward greater amplitude occurring during those increasing numbers, so in a lot of ways, it made/makes sense. Then this 12z arrives and it is less than half the previous cycle, and one is left scratching their head. It's a process of miss-direction using that guidance at times. The Euro was a minor hit, but still impressive with the cold aspect. But we're just talking handling snow. ... The Euro has been trending off the throttle as far as significant impact. Remember just two days ago, that incredible model run...ever since then it's just been battling against developing a storm at least excuse imaginable. Last night's run really wasn't a storm -- just some minor snow inconvenience in a uber cold atmosphere. Big whoop! May just have to now cast this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Youre on Twitter. Give him a follow 4-8" for CT. http://wxedgect.s3.amazonaws.com/lglead/2013/12/image_258d7d04409af0d8_2d02bcca2029b3b8.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Worth noting they pulled the .75 S and E a good bit on the fringe. 1 and 1.25 barely moved in eastern areas. I thought they looked similar to 6z overall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What's your buddy Quicy tweeting out?He has one way to show it with BOS getting 11.6" or so, ORH 10.5ishI think 9 for BDL. I think a general 7-10 for CT. I like his tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That is one ugly dry slot You have to wonder if that area up around Sailsbury, Newburyport, and Amesbury..near the coast in extreme ne MA may be one of the winners. Avoid the dry slut, and get some oes contributions in round 2 with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bastardi is ALSO calling for 1-2 FEET in NYC. Agreed those Awful 12z Runs? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 4-8" for CT. http://wxedgect.s3.amazonaws.com/lglead/2013/12/image_258d7d04409af0d8_2d02bcca2029b3b8.jpg With 8-12 in NE and NW hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You have to wonder if that area up around Sailsbury, Newburyport, and Amesbury..near the coast in extreme ne MA may be one of the winners. Avoid the dry slut, and get some oes contributions in round 2 with the coastal. That area has looked good to me, or from Attlehole out to Scituate or Duxbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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