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Jan 2-3 Big Snow Threat , Part 3


weathafella

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  On 1/1/2014 at 11:24 PM, weatherwiz said:

Looking forward to some thundersnow potential with this...should have a period where thundersnow is a definite possibility given the degree of lift associated with the system and some elevated instability

I don't see potential of tsnow anywhere. This isn't that kind of setup.
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Looking at the twisterdata maps, the GFS QPF is like .6''-.7'' for most of SNE outside extreme eastern MA and the Cape which is more and CT which is less. Seems pretty reasonable to me and I wouldn't really expect any more for most of us, so I'd think 9-10'' is probably the upper limit for a lot of us outside of Eastern MA unless we see wall to wall 20:1.

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  On 1/1/2014 at 11:26 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I don't see potential of tsnow anywhere. This isn't that kind of setup.

 

 

  On 1/1/2014 at 11:27 PM, RobbieL241 said:

I Agree.  There really isn't much of a tight thermal gradient with this storm to cause that sort of thing.

 

Thundersnow potential is definitely there...not a signal for widespread potential but it's there  Decent amount of VV's being forecasted at 700mb...700-500mb lapse rates will also be increasing up over 6-6.5 C/KM which isn't bad.

 

Like Jerry and Steve said...best shot would probably be eastern MA 

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Looks spot on for the valley going south to north.Looks the best for the Hippy Hippy Shake. :snowman:

  On 1/1/2014 at 11:34 PM, moneypitmike said:

Welll--I give wggb credit for not letting their maps go stale.  I think this is the 4th one of the day.

post-462-0-31311400-1388619255.jpg

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  On 1/1/2014 at 9:47 PM, weathafella said:

8-10 for you would be my call.

 

Exactly, but he is close to much more, just inside 128.

  On 1/1/2014 at 10:18 PM, dendrite said:

8-15" is a hell of a range though I guess it covers the meso jackpots and subsidence zones well. The problem is a lot of the public only remembers the high end of the ranges.

This.

Everyone keeps criticizing my 8-10" call for mby, yet Harv puts up an 8-15" RANGE, and everyone strokes their keyboard in awe of how "bullish" he is.

New Flash: Harv agrees with me!!

He's an on-air-met, and is not going to illustrate mesoscale screw jobs on his map, but psss....guess what, the 8" accounts for those.

He'd probably agree with me that the area just west of that oes is prime to see the lower end...aka mby.

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