Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:09 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Wow Harvey is bullish. 12-18 southeast ma 8-15 for many outside thatRgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:09 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Wow Harvey is bullish. 12-18 southeast ma 8-15 for many outside that He rarely busts big so take that to heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:09 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Wow Harvey is bullish. 12-18 southeast ma 8-15 for many outside that yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:11 PM, weathafella said: He rarely busts big so take that to heart. Yeah he is never ever outlandish. Surprised by that. Must be buying the rgem solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:10 PM, Ginxy said: Rgem Accurate time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Rgem has been most consistent. May as well ride it home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:10 PM, Ginxy said: Rgem I think he's thinking 0ES enhances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 8-15" is a hell of a range though I guess it covers the meso jackpots and subsidence zones well. The problem is a lot of the public only remembers the high end of the ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:06 PM, wxsniss said: BOX 4:39p re: Blizzard Warning... still plenty of time to pull the trigger if necessary by Thursday AM (and I'm guessing OKX went ahead with less lead time...? though as I posted above, not sure they'll verify): We thought a lot about issuing blizzard watches and warnings. At this time we think that the full criteria for a blizzard will not be met...but it is very close. As such will upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to winter storm warnings and continue to mention near-blizzard conditions at times. The greatest threat will be along the immediate East Coast of Massachusetts...as well as the coastal plain of southeast Massachusetts. Later shifts can reevaluate as we get closer to this event. I agreed with just keeping WSW, then relay on heavy wording for the other. Still too many holes in the plot at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Eric fisher pretty bullish. 10-14+ north shore, down through all of southeast ma. Bouchard sticking with 8-10 with 10-12 along the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 9:49 PM, dendrite said: That's how I'm leaning. Maybe 4-8"/5-10" part 1 and then 2-4" part 2 for S NH? That's pretty much what I have as well. It's this early stuff that prompted the warnings though. Otherwise we could have waited another shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Definitely still seeing the blizzard potential for eastern areas. Late Thursday and Friday the GFS and Euro were mixing down 30-35 knot gusts for BOS up through PWM. That's pretty much what I put and what BOX has in the grids. This light, dry snow should blow and drift easily. A lot of the reduced visibilities may be with blowing rather than falling snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Expectations set low, I think I get screwed on both ends of this storm. Subsidence and just west of any ocean enhancement. 6-8" final call. Prolly same total for Thornton, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 My feeling is that there will probably be a band close to Harvey's number. I envision a 2-3"/hr fluff band along the CF and that CF is only going to slowly move SE. Not to mention bands ahead of it. However if models back off the CCB stuff...then I could see a little less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:18 PM, dendrite said: 8-15" is a hell of a range though I guess it covers the meso jackpots and subsidence zones well. The problem is a lot of the public only remembers the high end of the ranges.Yeah, this.I agree that 8-15" may be a good range for that region but most will have 8" not 15" IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 8-16 was the norm forecast since I can remember, we knew that meant 8-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:19 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I agreed with just keeping WSW, then relay on heavy wording for the other. Still too many holes in the plot at this point in time. We're in full agreement. My question was about the bilzzard warning over Long Island. Blowing snow / snowfall intensity / winds aren't progged to be any less intense in southeast MA Friday morning. Wish there was more wiggle room for suspense tonight. As you posted, would be exciting if the lobes of energy off the southeast coast are over-modeled. TWC still going with a huge swath of 12-18 across upstate NY / most SNE... I think they're drawing alot more out of the initial WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Waa will produce 3-5 imby IMHO. Then 8-10 Thursday night early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:28 PM, MarkO said: Expectations set low, I think I get screwed on both ends of this storm. Subsidence and just west of any ocean enhancement. 6-8" final call. Prolly same total for Thornton, lol I see that up here as well. Even tho the RPM is sometimes off. It has kept the lower totals in our area, consistently every run, for the last 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:30 PM, Ginxy said: 8-16 was the norm forecast since I can remember, we knew that meant 8-16. Growing up I seem to remember a lot of 8-12s and 8-14s. I actually like his range though as long as he conveys there will be winners and losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Pick your MET #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:36 PM, dendrite said: Growing up I seem to remember a lot of 8-12s and 8-14s. I actually like his range though as long as he conveys there will be winners and losers.PVD weather radio, glued to any clue including off shore forecast. The opening salvo on 78 was 8-16, Harvey is old school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NECN and Channel 7 look good, Channel 7 being the most likely to verify for the CT Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 8-15 was common for these situations since the mid 70s. Harvey has questions regarding meso effects I think and pointing out the widespread wsw and winds and snow is prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 9:49 PM, dendrite said: That's how I'm leaning. Maybe 4-8"/5-10" part 1 and then 2-4" part 2 for S NH? That sounds like a good call. Maybe a spot 5-6" total for Nashua or Lowell- Lawrence or something, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:35 PM, weathafella said: Waa will produce 3-5 imby IMHO. Then 8-10 Thursday night early Friday. Id say 6-9 by tomm eve. Then 4-7 for u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:35 PM, weathafella said: Waa will produce 3-5 imby IMHO. Then 8-10 Thursday night early Friday. Harvey + Jerry combo is hard to deny. Agree for our hood. Was hoping the 0z-6z New Year's model trends would continue thru the day (briefly closed H5 low on 6z Nam, different beast entirely!) but the window for suspense is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd go 5-8 for the river valley in CT, leaning toward the low side. I'd love to be wrong, but I'm guessing that we only get an inch or two from the overrunning, and we just get clipped with three or four inches from the coastal after a lull. Still should be an impressive storm. OKX is much more bullish, though, with 8-10+. I'm almost always wrong when I don't line up with those guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't see how we can get less than 8" in this event, OES enhancement keeps Cape Cod snowing throughout Thursday along with the coastal first low that develops brings us some precip into the region, then the main show after 3pm EST tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 10:46 PM, sankaty said: I'd go 5-8 for the river valley in CT, leaning toward the low side. I'd love to be wrong, but I'm guessing that we only get an inch or two from the overrunning, and we just get clipped with three or four inches from the coastal after a lull. Still should be an impressive storm. OKX is much more bullish, though, with 8-10+. I'm almost always wrong when I don't line up with those guys. That sounds reasonable to me. I'm expecting 6 of 7" in many towns... a few in the hills wind up closer to 9 or 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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