snowNAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 06z GFS ENS anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 would probably be a blizzard for NyC and 5 boroughs as well if that's the case Prob. But blizzard is defined by vis and wind. Nassau and Suffolk are closer to the center. If they go then maybe nyc . But gotta start there 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Congrats this has gone better for you guys and a whole lot of others. We all got our stronger vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs ens mean is .5+ and .75+ for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This pattern is going to be like a roller coaster ride - by Monday after near 0 temps over the weekend - a cold rain - then right back in to the freezer http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is gonna be fun.... Must stay up! Never thought I'd see the mention of 30:1 ratios! Mount holly IMPACTS...WHILE SOME SNOW COULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON THURSDAY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS COULD BE FELT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS INCLUDE THE COMBINATION OF A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS, GUSTY WINDS PRODUCING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS, LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY WITH 20- TO POTENTIALLY 30-1 RATIOS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 15-1 RATIOS SHOULD BE COMMON WHERE TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE TEENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is gonna be fun.... Must stay up! Never thought I'd see the mention of 30:1 ratios! Mount holly IMPACTS...WHILE SOME SNOW COULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON THURSDAY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS COULD BE FELT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS INCLUDE THE COMBINATION OF A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS, GUSTY WINDS PRODUCING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS, LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY WITH 20- TO POTENTIALLY 30-1 RATIOS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 15-1 RATIOS SHOULD BE COMMON WHERE TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE TEENS then you look at their forecast and no winter storm watches or even advisories except for the northwest corner of their region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 then you look at their forecast and no winter storm watches or even advisories except for the northwest corner of their region That's where I am (Sussex County). Can't recall a "colder" snowstorm. If the trends continue with the 0z suite it's watches for at least the Northern 2/3 of Mt Holly's forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This storm is referenced on a plaque in a local park. Geographically it was larger and known as "The Cold Storm", but this seems like it in a microcosmic way for some... http://files.usgwarchives.net/nc/perquimans/newspapers/snowstor189gnw.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 then you look at their forecast and no winter storm watches or even advisories except for the northwest corner of their region Most likely waiting for the 12Z runs to come out. The storm is not expected to hit until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Really nice break for us on the overnight model runs to shear out the southern stream vort fast enough allowing the low further west to take over closer to the coast. 12z not sheared out enough near Mid-Atlantic 6z shears out to almost nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice subtropical connection available for this storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 For LGA on 06z NAM 12.8" in 31hrs. and on the 06z GFS, just 5.5" in 33-36hrs. (length of storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice to see models consolidate overnight with a general 5-9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Would like to see the Euro beef up snowfall amounts today.But it's doable with all the run to run changes the models have been exhibiting with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Would like to see the Euro beef up snowfall amounts today. North32America_msl_48.gif shocked the euro seems to be behind the 8-ball right now. usually in these systems its leading the charge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 shocked the euro seems to be behind the 8-ball right now. usually in these systems its leading the charge It may not worry me that much this time since the Euro has been struggling like all the other models with this system. There is still time for more change here as it's not like the Euro when it locks in an holds serve right through to the event.I would be really happy with .5 liquid and higher ratios with this event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It may not worry me that much this time since the Euro has been struggling like all the other models with this system. There is still time for more change here as it's not like the Euro when it locks in an holds serve right through to the event. reading earlier that the NAM model looks to have the best forecast according to the short range forecast output it had comparing what it is showing currently on IR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It may not worry me that much this time since the Euro has been struggling like all the other models with this system. There is still time for more change here as it's not like the Euro when it locks in an holds serve right through to the event.I would be really happy with .5 liquid and higher ratios with this event . Was gona post the nam high res but resisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I can't believe MT Holly going min 15 to 1 and 20 to 30 to 1 at the end. If you get .75 your looking a NAM numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Upton... AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOWDEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPSFROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELSCONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BEST MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESISTO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...PLACING BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIERSNOW BANDING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAYMORNING. WITH THAT SAID...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AREPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITHLOCALLY 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES DEPENDING ON EXACTLOCATION OF MESOSCALE BANDING.FOR OUR REGION...PROBABILITY FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDING INCREASES LATETHU INTO THU EVENING AS THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WORK TOWARDSTHE EAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE/S INTENSIFIES ALONG THE CAROLINACOAST IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KT UPPER JET. MODELSARE FAIRLY CLUSTERED IN THESE LOW PRESSURE AREAS TRACKING NE...JUSTSOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINEDINCREASE IN DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT...DEFORMATION...AND OVERRUNNINGMOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND/S TO DEVELOPAND GRADUALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THU EVENING INTOEARLY FRI MORNING. ADDITIONAL QPF RANGING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITHHIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AS TEMPS DROP THROUGH THETEENS...BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.AS USUAL...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS UNTILMESOSCALE BANDING BEGINS TAKING SHAPE...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5TO 9 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 7 TO 11 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERNZONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Was gona post the nam high res but resisted it's encouraging that the RGEM has a max of almost .8 on Long Island with great ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 With Long Island Sound sea surface temperatures around 4 C or 5 C, 850 mb temperatures dropping to at least -10 C, and a stiff northerly fetch...that's going to create some very unstable air...always a factor to consider whenever the delta between those two items is greater than 12 C. The 4km NAM might have been picking that up with those crazy high totals on the N. Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it's encouraging that the RGEM has a max of almost .8 on Long Island with great ratios. SN_000-048_0000.gif Earplugs, gas and stabilizer will be used in 48 hours. Snowblow time is on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it's encouraging that the RGEM has a max of almost .8 on Long Island with great ratios. SN_000-048_0000.gif You start at 15 to 1 may go to 20 to 1. .8 gets the laurel hollow pad to 12 plus Its a blizzard on Long Island.And it goes back through Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You start at 15 to 1 may go to 20 to 1. .8 gets the laurel hollow pad to 12 plus Its a blizzard on Long Island. And it goes back through Monmouth county Monmouth has found a way to do well on the two previous events back in December. They also has the summer thunderstorm magnet this past year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Monmouth has found a way to do well on the two previous events back in December. They also has the summer thunderstorm magnet this past year. How are the latest SREF s thru the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Joe Cioffi pix 11. Shows 6 to 9 from NYC thru Monmouth. Joe has been around long time and is well respected and feels early morning models are a trend to bringing storm closer to coast with blizzard conditions. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I hear the 1 inch line is approaching the city it's a Solid run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How is there no discussion on the SREFs lol. They look awesome. .75" for the city, maybe a hair more. low pressure leaning west still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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