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January 2014 Obs


Isopycnic

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WHAT?! WHERE DID THIS T-STORM COME FROM?!

Looking outside, No Precip @ 11:30 PM, Just got *rattled*, (Heavy thunder!), outta bed, 12:10am..

TEMP IS SETTING AT 55 DEGREES

North winds at 10

DP 46

 

 

THUNDER-LIGHTING HEAVEY RAIN? CURRENTLY?

Where did *that* come from? Was NOT mentioned in the forcast...

 

(Looks @ Local AFD)

As of 7 PM Friday...VAD wind profile registering 100 knots winds at

500 mb ahead of a highly amplified trough plowing across the Gulf

states as clearly evidenced in vapor animations this evening. The

basal portion of this feature will zip across the forecast area

after midnight as it flings into a negative tilt overnight. The

surface front will precede the upper trough axis and cross the

coast around midnight. Just about all of the models confine any

precipitation with this MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM over the coastal waters

where over-running and lift will be a bit stronger.

Will retain slight chance of rain into the pre-dawn hours as is

currently advertised...namely over our very NE/north coastal zones.

Temperatures do not support icy precipitation in this area as it remains

a bit too mild over this area through daybreak. Inland however

at daybreak upper 20s will be seen but drying aloft will already

be underway.

We were working in Wilmington last night and your right 12:07 a crack of thunder and the bottom fell out! we stayed for another 20 mins and no signs of it letting up so we packed up and headed back to Raleigh... Try again later in the coming week.

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CAE........the wording at the beginning is great...then......naso much...sigh

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY A WEAK REX BLOCK LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND ALLOW THE COLD CANADIAN AIR TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK OVER THE
EASTERN US THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING TEMPERATURES. COLD AND DRY
HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US SATURDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME.

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Dewpoints are pretty impressive this afternoon. Some locals have dewpoints of -7 or -8.Currently I have a dewpoint of -2 but I was as  low as -5...that is actually a degree or so lower than during our big arctic outbreak a little while back. Gfs is showing dewpoints of -10 to even -15 on friday. That might be a bit over done with the nam showing similar dewpoints as we have today. Plus I recall the gfs, and nam for that matter, being way too cold with dewpoints earlier in the year when we had our first good arctic shot. But if we can manage to get dewpoints in the negative teens..that would truly be incredible. Probably the lowest dewpoint I have ever seen here.

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My temperature had fallen to 24.5 by 6:30.  It has since risen by over 3 degrees.  I believe this can be tied to the clouds that have rolled over the mountains and are just barely reaching into Catawba County.  GSP has forecasted a low of 15 here tonight, but I'm going in the wrong direction to meet that goal.  Interesting...

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30 currently. The low so far today was 30 this morning. Hard freeze warning out even though I could have sworn they said they were done issuing these till March due to the fact that we all ready had a hard freeze with the first outbreak and that meant the end of growing season.

Edit: Down to 29 so we set a low for the day.

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