downeastnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Euro usually underestimates QPF out in time, right? Isn't that a known bias? Or am I making that up? It does tend to underdo it, at least it did in the last several good snows we had especially back west during a coastal low like this, it always had the Atlanta to CLT up to Triad area to dry it seems. It wont take much QPF to get a decent event there with the air this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I usually go by join date if you have been lurking for years you should know how he is and to go off on him is kinda pointless since he doesn't change EVER at least not in the 8 or so years I have been posting with him....and I don't want him to change he is often the cold harsh voice of reality. If this storms ends up a coastal and he gets shut out expect to see him in his prime lol. In "it only happens to Widre" fashion, there will be 6" totals surrounding his house but he will magically get dry-slotted and, combined with the most snow-shielding trees that exist calling his yard home, he will end up with a paltry inch and the rant will be on. I think we should all chip in and buy him a chainsaw so we don't have to hear about the trees for another 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I didn't know the Euro had a dry QPF bias. Interesting. In truth, looking at QPF is pretty useless at this time frame, anyways, but it's fun. EDIT: Trickster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 In "it only happens to Widre" fashion, there will be 6" totals surrounding his house but he will magically get dry-slotted and, combined with the most snow-shielding trees that exist calling his yard home, he will end up with a paltry inch and the rant will be on. I think we should all chip in and buy him a chainsaw so we don't have to hear about the trees for another 5 years. Widre doesn't ever get snow because he lives underground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 it tends to. It does tend to underdo it, at least it did in the last several good snows we had especially back west during a coastal low like this, it always had the Atlanta to CLT up to Triad area to dry it seems. It wont take much QPF to get a decent event there with the air this cold. Yeah, that's what I remember. Thanks. Even a few meager tenths of an inch would be a very nice snow with these cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 My confidence has increased greatly now that we have seen a weenie run from the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 lord, people posting the jma in the main thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I usually go by join date if you have been lurking for years you should know how he is and to go off on him is kinda pointless since he doesn't change EVER at least not in the 8 or so years I have been posting with him....and I don't want him to change he is often the cold harsh voice of reality. If this storms ends up a coastal and he gets shut out expect to see him in his prime lol. Just because he doesn't change doesn't mean that we should accept the bad behavior. Perhaps we continue to feed the monster... The Euro usually underestimates QPF out in time, right? Isn't that a known bias? Or am I making that up? I think you might be making that up, CR. But, everyone sure was quite willing to jump in and run with it. You do have immense powers on this board. Make sure that you use them for good. Mwahahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 My favorite panel of the 12z ensembles. HERE HERE!!! Also... it's a sunny day and 25 degrees at 2pm, gotta love that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm guessing the Euro lost those crazy low surface temps from 12Z yesterday since the snow pack is less? Others have mentioned how similar this is to the Xmas 2010 storm. Again CHS will be hugging the 850 line (2010 was rain changing to snow for me). The main difference is the surface temps considerably cooler this year and (perhaps) more precip if we are really lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm guessing the Euro lost those crazy low surface temps from 12Z yesterday since the snow pack is less? Others have mentioned how similar this is to the Xmas 2010 storm. Again CHS will be hugging the 850 line (2010 was rain changing to snow for me). The main difference is the surface temps considerably cooler this year and (perhaps) more precip if we are really lucky. euro dropped 7" in chas, no temp issues. and this airmass is much stronger/colder than the airmass in place for the feb 2010 storm. barring a huge shift west with the low on the coast i think temps will be a non issue. and i know a lot of posters want a west trend but damn, when you have to resort to posting the jma and dgex you know your inner weenie is out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Despite the weenie in me, I'm not going to hug any model (any more for this event). But logic tells me that you don't want to be in the bulls eye at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Anybody want to play over/under for 4 inches of snow for the major cities? I'll need some help coming up with the list of cities (not Waycross): Charlotte Atlanta Charleston Myrtle Beach Wilmington Savannah Columbia Norfolk DC Greensboro Raleigh Greenville What other cities do I need to add or subtract to get a good sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just because he doesn't change doesn't mean that we should accept the bad behavior. Perhaps we continue to feed the monster... I think you might be making that up, CR. But, everyone sure was quite willing to jump in and run with it. You do have immense powers on this board. Make sure that you use them for good. Mwahahaha! Mwahahaha (as the thunder crashes).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Anybody want to play over/under for 4 inches of snow for the major cities? I'll need some help coming up with the list of cities (not Waycross): Charlotte Atlanta Charleston Myrtle Beach Wilmington Savannah Columbia Norfolk DC Greensboro Raleigh Greenville What other cities do I need to add or subtract to get a good sampling? That Greenville SC or NC? Do both...and Elizabeth City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I could see Charlotte on the fringe of 4 inches; RDU and GBO yes; coastal cities double it; Greenville, NC yes... SC no; Columbia no; DC (don't they always); Hickory no, Boone yes (NW Flow), Asheville yes MBY... If I don't get at least a flizzard I'm going to the beach and getting a room for the duration of the event! (Don't worry... I'll send pics) Waycross? There's no place called that... Are you drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 That Greenville SC or NC? Do both...and Elizabeth City. No problem. Do you think it would be ok to start a thread for this to save for verification? I was thinking to maybe have folks chime in this weekend and lock it before the 0z runs Sunday night. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Add Hickory and Boone and Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Remember KCLT is on the far west side of Mecklenburg near the county line, so while East Charlotte might get over 4, the official reading from the airport would most likely be lower, especially with a coastal where the precip amounts drop quickly on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Remember KCLT is on the far west side of Mecklenburg near the county line, so while East Charlotte might get over 4, the official reading from the airport would most likely be lower, especially with a coastal where the precip amounts drop quickly on the west side. Good point. For that matter, KGSO is in extreme western Guilford County, too. It's almost halfway between Greensboro and Winston-Salem. KINT is in northeastern Winston-Salem, IIRC. KRDU is northwest of Raleigh where I-40 and I-540 come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Add Hickory and Boone and Asheville. got it. Thanks! I probably need some more Georgia locations too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 No problem. Do you think it would be ok to start a thread for this to save for verification? I was thinking to maybe have folks chime in this weekend and lock it before the 0z runs Sunday night. What do you think? Sure, start it if you want! You know you'll probably get some "it's too early to start it" stuff, but don't worry about it. You may not get a lot of participation till it becomes more likely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 When do we get to see the latest Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Start the thread!!! I'm just happy we're not talking about a clipper... I'm beginning to hate those things. Clippers are like my last girlfriend, she gave everyone some but me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Good point. For that matter, KGSO is in extreme western Guilford County, too. It's almost halfway between Greensboro and Winston-Salem. KINT is in northeastern Winston-Salem, IIRC. Back in Dec '09 or '10, I went from cold rain just north of Uptown in the Noda area to heavy sleet out by the airport. The county has a huge gradient usually when it comes to winter weather, especially North-South. You can go from 6"+ in huntersville to an inch in Ballantyne. Same can also be said somewhat going West-East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hmmm, how about Dacula! :-) got it. Thanks! I probably need some more Georgia locations too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hmmm, how about Dacula! :-) *pats you on the back* Good look to ya sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Start the thread!!! I'm just happy we're not talking about a clipper... I'm beginning to hate those things. Clippers are like my last girlfriend, she gave everyone some but me. Don't feel bad, I'm in Ohio right now and these supposedly great clippers this past week have been underperforming. I really want the SE to hit it big, and considering I'm out of town, it's a virtual lock to happen lol. Now if only something can pop up between the 1st and the 9th while I'm home.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Don't feel bad, I'm in Ohio right now and these supposedly great clippers this past week have been underperforming. I really want the SE to hit it big, and considering I'm out of town, it's a virtual lock to happen lol. Now if only something can pop up between the 1st and the 9th while I'm home.... Want me to drive to Mt. Holly and send you pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Start the thread!!! I'm just happy we're not talking about a clipper... I'm beginning to hate those things. Clippers are like my last girlfriend, she gave everyone some but me. Done. Y'all pop in and make your picks! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42561-overunder-4-of-snow-contest/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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