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January Banter


Isopycnic

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Let's see how long it takes for a full on weenie freakout if none of us report in about the Euro. 

It is funny how the collective mood of the group changes drastically from one model run to the next. Take this morning when the gfs was dry and compare it to after seeing the canadian. If the euro is dry or just a coastal storm, everyone will be right back in "gfs mode"

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It is funny how the collective mood of the group changes drastically from one model run to the next. Take this morning when the gfs was dry and compare it to after seeing the canadian. If the euro is dry or just a coastal storm, everyone will be right back in "gfs mode"

The "I told you so's" will come out. 

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with the strength of the cold blast and precip rates we are looking at i dont think temps will be an issue in chas.

12z GFS literally at the SFC is in the low to mid 20's with .42 Liquid Equiv. QPF.  however, 850mb runs between 0-1C and 925mb run between 0-2C.   ZR/IP verbatim, but the good news is given the source airmass (arctic-established), those might trend colder.

 

on a side note, back on Tuesday when the arctic cold front came through, I was working but was unaware (until now) that the cold front passage did indeed generate some strong convection, several hail reports, one outside of Summerville (.88" diameter), and another one near Sullivan's Island (1.00" diameter), and I had to check archive radar from wunderground and sure enough there it was, scattered convection/thunderstorms erupted.  these s/w's embedded in this pattern have been extremely energetic.  

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Again....this looks similar to today's gfs at 114   ;)   I need to see if I still have the maps saved from 2010   :)

I don't have the maps saved since my old hard drive crashed, but I can tell you the GFS was so far south because it was having convective feedback issues treating the SFC low like an MCS, making a right turn banking it ESE against a WSW flow at all levels in the atmosphere.  I spent more time with that storm progging/searching archives than practically any other event.  I can still remember almost to a tee just about all the guidance progs leading up to it.

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I don't have the maps saved since my old hard drive crashed, but I can tell you the GFS was so far south because it was having convective feedback issues treating the SFC low like an MCS, making a right turn banking it ESE against a WSW flow at all levels in the atmosphere.  I spent more time with that storm progging/searching archives than practically any other event.  I can still remember almost to a tee just about all the guidance progs leading up to it.

I remember it doing that  :lol:  That might be the reason for my hesitation for this system.....not sure why I can't fully buy into it just yet, but needless to say it does have my interest ;) 

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Whats funny is how predictable it all is, my personal favorites are the noobs that just joined that go off on Widremann for being a debbie downer I love those.....

 

Well, he does fit that description to a T.  So, they're not wrong in their assessment.  Plus, how do we not know that the so-called "noobs" haven't been lurking for many years up to this point?  They might be quite familiar with the make-up of the board, and they're just now getting a chance to voice their observations.

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Well, he does fit that description to a T.  So, they're not wrong in their assessment.  Plus, how do we not know that the so-called "noobs" haven't been lurking for many years up to this point?  They might be quite familiar with the make-up of the board, and they're just now getting a chance to voice their observations.

 

I usually go by join date ;) if you have been lurking for years you should know how he is and to go off on him is kinda pointless since he doesn't change EVER at least not in the 8 or so years I have been posting with him....and I don't want him to change he is often the cold harsh voice of reality. If this storms ends up a coastal and he gets shut out expect to see him in his prime lol.

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I usually go by join date ;) if you have been lurking for years you should know how he is and to go off on him is kinda pointless since he doesn't change EVER at least not in the 8 or so years I have been posting with him....and I don't want him to change he is often the cold harsh voice of reality. If this storms ends up a coastal and he gets shut out expect to see him in his prime lol.

:lol:  There will be a few others that will fit that description too  

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