jburns Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I had a hard time taking your post seriously, hence the sarcasm. No problem, I'll program the no typo thing into our youtube robot forecaster. Do you really think we didn't notice the typo and we don't care if we repeat it? I was "educating" him because obviously he doesn't know how a typo like that can happen. I can tell you one thing, that wont be the last typo for us, even with the standards we adhere to. That was the impression you original post gave me, yes. Had your original post contained several of the things you have stated since, I never would have responded in the first place. I think we agree enough to stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That was the impression you original post gave me, yes. Had your original post contained several of the things you have stated since, I never would have responded in the first place. I think we agree enough to stop now. So giving the reason for the typo wasn't enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I was ninja'd by Chris while merging threads EDIT: Well.....maybe not...it gave me the sql server page.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Shawn, Thanks for that info. So, you're able to see clown maps for each of the 51 members of the Euro ensemble? Wow! I didn't expect multiple members to give 12" to ATL and some others to give 6-8" since those are rare to almost unheard of amounts and those few runs would add to close to 50". 6"+ snow in the Atlanta area is pretty uncommon though it has occurred more often on the northside than at the southside's airport. Some areas got close to 6" in the last big storm, Jan. of 2011. They're on wxbell... they are more like "bars". if that makes sense per member. So it's an image with 1-51 basically. I counted 24 members total showing some sort of snow in ATL. Some of these members have over 1 inch of liquid. I'm dropping you a private message. Edit, I think I over exaggerated a bit for ATL. There is a 12 inch member and a cpl other teens numbers. Some others lower, some really low, some in the 8-9 inch range, etc. Either way; it's a great sign to see 24/51 members with accumulating snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Shawn, Thanks for that info. So, you're able to see clown maps for each of the 51 members of the Euro ensemble? Wow! I didn't expect multiple members to give 12" to ATL and some others to give 6-8" since those are rare to almost unheard of amounts and those few runs would add to close to 50". 6"+ snow in the Atlanta area is pretty uncommon though it has occurred more often on the northside than at the southside's airport. Some areas got close to 6" in the last big storm, Jan. of 2011. That storm like countless others in the past clearly show how the airport is a bad representation of average snowfall totals in the city of Atlanta as a whole. Unless this wasn't documented or something I believe Atlanta has yet to officially have a 12 inch snowstorm. The highest amount I can find documented is just over 10 inches back on January 23, 1940. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The entire state of Minnesota had below zero lows this A M! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Also, 2013 was the 4 th warmest , global temperature wise , on record!! It tied 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Damn I'm glad I went to the movies, what a day in the dry slot huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That storm like countless others in the past clearly show how the airport is a bad representation of average snowfall totals in the city of Atlanta as a whole. Unless this wasn't documented or something I believe Atlanta has yet to officially have a 12 inch snowstorm. The highest amount I can find documented is just over 10 inches back on January 23, 1940. That's right. There was also one close to 10" in the city in January of 1893. one reason for this is that the very wet storms often aren't pure snow. So, many have IP/ZR in the mix, which brings down measurements. The 2/1979 IP, which measured over 1.2" liquid, was heavy enough to give a foot of snow for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm pretty impressed with a 288 hr GFS from 4 days ago showing this potential that the Euro now has I posted above (the map.) I am pretty sure the wxbell maps also seem to include ice/mix/freezing rain as snowfall accumulation/snowfall also. Still Wintry though. Many members on here in the deep South would be happy with just a ZR event to help curb the dissappointment of this Winter so far. To be honest, I'm still trying to figure out how to read that wxbell graph lmao! Edit: I think I may be slowly getting it. Is the six hour period and day they have snow determined by how long the bar is? So, if a bar has more than one color, that means more than one six hour period with snow for that one member? So, for example, does one member show 0.1-0.5" of snow between hours 90 and 96? And that same member has between 0.5" and 1" between hours 180 and 186? I'm also trying to understand the bottom graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 To be honest, I'm still trying to figure out how to read that wxbell graph lmao! Edit: I think I may be slowly getting it. Is the six hour period and day they have snow determined by how long the bar is? So, if a bar has more than one color, that means more than one six hour period with snow for that one member? So, for example, does one member show 0.1-0.5" of snow between hours 90 and 96? And that same member has between 0.5" and 1" between hours 180 and 186? I'm also trying to understand the bottom graph. I think it goes by the hr. Each block so to speak. So you see how it goes from lighter then to the brighter pink? I think its like. first 6 hr: this much ; second 6 hr: this much; third 6 hr; this much. So basically 6 hr intervals; but total precip; not just for that 6 hrs. thats why the accums go up at the end of the bars.. cause that's the whole period.. I think.... so it takes each 6 hr period and adds the next 6 hr period to it etc. until the "storm is done". and it basically ends up as a total between the first 6 hrs through the end. Haha man I can't explain anything intricate in text to save my life. Maybe think of 6+6+6+6+6+however long the precip lasts. then the last block on the bar is the total of the whole thing. Also, I think they are read across and not up and down. Each set of blocks that make a bar across is 1 member. The bottom part is just liquid precip i believe. the green is the ensemble mean of all the members and the blue should be the deterministic forecast of the euro. If all else fails, hopefully someone else with the wxbell maps can explain it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Kevin, did you see any snow today? Had a nice convective-type shower move through Ball Ground this afternoon with temps around 38F. It was actually beginning to whiten the ground but ended just before you could call it a "good dusting". Anyway, it sure did whet my appetite! Larry, thanks for all of your hard work you put into that analysis. It sure sounds better than nothing showing up at all. Your analogs are matching up well with the prevailing weather too. Hey Greg, yeah I did! It totally caught me off guard too, actually I think it was the best I've seen in a couple of seasons lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 So giving the reason for the typo wasn't enough? I really want to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hey Greg, yeah I did! It totally caught me off guard too, actually I think it was the best I've seen in a couple of seasons lol That, my friend, is exactly why it wouldn't take a whole lot to make me happy. A one inch storm, if offered? Where do I sign up? LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think it goes by the hr. Each block so to speak. So you see how it goes from lighter then to the brighter pink? I think its like. first 6 hr: this much ; second 6 hr: this much; third 6 hr; this much. So basically 6 hr intervals; but total precip; not just for that 6 hrs. thats why the accums go up at the end of the bars.. cause that's the whole period.. I think.... so it takes each 6 hr period and adds the next 6 hr period to it etc. until the "storm is done". and it basically ends up as a total between the first 6 hrs through the end. Haha man I can't explain anything intricate in text to save my life. Maybe think of 6+6+6+6+6+however long the precip lasts. then the last block on the bar is the total of the whole thing. Also, I think they are read across and not up and down. Each set of blocks that make a bar across is 1 member. The bottom part is just liquid precip i believe. the green is the ensemble mean of all the members and the blue should be the deterministic forecast of the euro. If all else fails, hopefully someone else with the wxbell maps can explain it better. Ok, now I think I understand it all. Also, it looks to me that the bottom graph, which I also first thought was liquid, is actually also snowfall. I know that because I'm comparing it to my provider's output. It has to be snowfall. So, for KATL, it shows 0.7" of snowfall on the op. clown map and ~1.4" of snowfall on the ens. mean. clown. Now that I think I understand it: when I'm done analyzing, I'll post a comment. Edit: I just had a thought. Could it be that WxBell's clown amounts are overdone because the algorithm is misinterpreting these bars like I first did? Is it possible that the WxBell maps take what is supposed to be a total amount to that point and misinterpret them as just the six hourly amounts? I ask this because they actually mesh well with my provider's clown when not misinterpreted. Hmmmm. If I were a WxBell client, I'd ask them. But, alas I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Ok, now I think I understand it all. Also, it looks to me that the bottom graph, which I also first thought was liquid, is actually also snowfall. I know that because I'm comparing it to my provider's output. It has to be snowfall. So, for KATL, it shows 0.7" of snowfall on the op. clown map and ~1.4" of snowfall on the ens. mean. clown. Now that I think I understand it: when I'm done analyzing, I'll post a comment. Edit: I just had a thought. Could it be that WxBell's clown amounts are overdone because the algorithm is misinterpreting these bars like I first did? Is it possible that the WxBell maps take what is supposed to be a total amount to that point and misinterpret them as just the six hourly amounts? I ask this because they actually mesh well with my provider's clown when not misinterpreted. Hmmmm. If I were a WxBell client, I'd ask them. But, alas I'm not. Not sure. Ryan Maue would be the one to ask of course on Twitter or something. So the bars on the bottom are the mean of all the members as snow fall? Even though there are some huge numbers on individual members, it's averaging out with some not showing any snow etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Not sure. Ryan Maue would be the one to ask of course on Twitter or something. I'm also not on Twitter. Would you or someone else mind asking him? There's something seriously wrong with WxBell's clowns. It is so bad that a thread was created in "off topic" to address this! Lots of people other than me are saying they're way too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Damn I'm glad I went to the movies, what a day in the dry slot huh?You aren't missing much in the wet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 You aren't missing much in the wet spot. That's not what she said... I don't think he said it either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Shawn, Thanks for that info. So, you're able to see clown maps for each of the 51 members of the Euro ensemble? Wow! I didn't expect multiple members to give 12" to ATL and some others to give 6-8" since those are rare to almost unheard of amounts and those few runs would add to close to 50". 6"+ snow in the Atlanta area is pretty uncommon though it has occurred more often on the northside than at the southside's airport. Some areas got close to 6" in the last big storm, Jan. of 2011. wonder why it has occurred more on the northside than at the airport ? Is 15 miles really that huge of a difference ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 wonder why it has occurred more on the northside than at the airport ? Is 15 miles really and At that huge of a difference ? 15 miles can make all the difference and Atlanta sits on a pretty good plateau. Dalton is only 15 miles from me and they always seem to get more snow but again, higher elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 That storm like countless others in the past clearly show how the airport is a bad representation of average snowfall totals in the city of Atlanta as a whole. Unless this wasn't documented or something I believe Atlanta has yet to officially have a 12 inch snowstorm. The highest amount I can find documented is just over 10 inches back on January 23, 1940. Dallas, GA (30 miles northwest of Hartsfield) had 24 inches from the 93 superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think tonight is just a taste of what is to come. I think next week the real fun begins.A taste of disappointment? Yes, I agree. Can't wait to see what new bust scenarios the next threat brings. Maybe we'll get something like summer thunderstorms where the line approaches, falls apart, and then reforms to the east, or west, or whatever. Or the BL temps will actually be fine, but we'll have a warm nose. Either way, Greenville will get 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I hate to sound like a whiny baby but man am I ready for a real snowstorm. Events like tonight are just enough to get you upset....LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 A taste of disappointment? Yes, I agree. Can't wait to see what new bust scenarios the next threat brings. Maybe we'll get something like summer thunderstorms where the line approaches, falls apart, and then reforms to the east, or west, or whatever. Or the BL temps will actually be fine, but we'll have a warm nose. Either way, Greenville will get 6". You and packbacker should form a tag team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I hate to sound like a whiny baby but man am I ready for a real snowstorm. Events like tonight are just enough to get you upset....LOL! I think we get it starting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I hate to sound like a whiny baby but man am I ready for a real snowstorm. Events like tonight are just enough to get you upset....LOL!Unless you live in RWI or PGA, and then you're sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I've been waiting for years for a 1/88 or a 1/03 type storm....The best storm we've had lately was 1/20/09 and the only reason for that was because of the cold temps after the 5 inches of snow/sleet. The 12/26/10 storm wasn't that great because of the marginal temps. Hopefully we'll get a decent storm soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Even though it's stressful as crap looking at the short range models every hour, dissecting radar frames, and waiting for the changeover, it's still a lot of fun tracking winter events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Even though it's stressful as crap looking at the short range models every hour, dissecting radar frames, and waiting for the changeover, it's still a lot of fun tracking winter events.It sure is, even if you are getting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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