January Banter

[timnc910]

or"there's nice banding to our west hopefully it will stay together long enough for mby"

[Cold Rain]

yes plenty of good rainstorms to come.

Haha!

[franklin NCwx]

Not if you are realistic.

It's all about expectations.

well, my post was more about the overall pattern and not this storm. My expectations are realistic. But 1" of snow is well below average here. Heckler even the peaks that are over 5000"ft have had less than two inches this winter here in Macon county. Thats terrible with the cold and above average precipitation.

[Cold Rain]

Ok, I'm going to look at the 12Zs and prepare some remarks.

[jburns]

Ok, I'm going to look at the 12Zs and prepare some remarks.

The easiest method is to just hold down the shift key and run your finger up the number row.

[Cold Rain]

The easiest method is to just hold down the shift key and run your finger up the number row.

Sounds about right.

So after looking at the guidance, the Euro looks weird at 240. That's about all I can come up with.

[franklin NCwx]

Sounds about right.

So after looking at the guidance, the Euro looks weird at 240. That's about all I can come up with.

so it has qpf with 850 temps below freezing in the southeast? Gotcha, thanks.

[GaWx]

 With all of the whining now, imagine how bad it might have been among Atlantans and others if it were 1/31/79. As of then, none of the prior NINE winters had even exceeded the median of 1" for S/IP at KATL! (the mean is ~2") There hadn't been even one MAJOR snow or sleetstorm (3.5"+) at KATL in the better part of 20 years (early 1960's)! There had been only 0.2" for that winter to that point. There hadn't been a major ZR in six years. The severe cold of 1976-7 and 1977-8 wouldn't have mattered to most posters. As bad as it is now, this would likely be quite tame compared to how it would have been if this BB had existed then. Then, suddenly in Feb. of 1979, KATL had both a major ZR and a major IP, a whopping 4.2", the greatest single S or IP storm since Jan. of 1940! 

 

 Part of the problem is that many posters have been spoiled by the three winters of 08-09 through 10-11, when KATL and many other SE locations had a very rare three winters in a row with a major snow! Major snows (3.5"+) occur on average only about once every 4 winters in KATL. So, the odds that those three winters were going to all have major snows there were only about 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 or 1/64! In addition, there were four other months during those three winters for which KATL had between 1/2" and 1.5"! The seasonal totals for all three winters were all quadruple the median or higher! The total was 16.6" for the three winters, combined. The last time for that was way back in the early 1980's. All of this has lead to spoiling imo. Now that I think about it, maybe the BB wouldn't have been as bad in Jan. of 1979 due to a lack of spoilage.

[Jon]

Sounds about right.

So after looking at the guidance, the Euro looks weird at 240. That's about all I can come up with.

for one there's a strong -AO/-NAO combo. The slight ridge or lack thereof would essentially be underdone. This is a good run. The PNA never goes negative, huge change from previous runs, bottoms out around neutral.

[Cold Rain]

for one there's a strong -AO/-NAO combo. The slight ridge or lack thereof would essentially be underdone. This is a good run. The PNA never goes negative, huge change from previous runs, bottoms out around neutral.

Well, maybe that's it. I don't even remember what a -NAO looks like anymore, so that's why it looks weird, I guess.

[Cold Rain]

so it has qpf with 850 temps below freezing in the southeast? Gotcha, thanks.

Haha.....sounds just about right.

[Cold Rain]

Yay, the 18z NAM looks wetter now. Time to get sucked back in or should we wait for an SREF?

[EmersonGA]

I need some advice from you Asheville folks.  I'm surprising my wife with a quick weekend trip up there in a few weeks and need to know a good place to take her out to dinner.  I don't want to break the bank but I'm not afraid to pay well for good food.  I would like to avoid two hour waits for tourist traps.  Any advice?  It would likely be on a Saturday evening.

[Hvward]

I need some advice from you Asheville folks.  I'm surprising my wife with a quick weekend trip up there in a few weeks and need to know a good place to take her out to dinner.  I don't want to break the bank but I'm not afraid to pay well for good food.  I would like to avoid two hour waits for tourist traps.  Any advice?  It would likely be on a Saturday evening.

 

Pack's Tavern or Vincenzo's Italian are both downtown, fairly reasonable with good food, and shouldn't be to crammed with tourist.  You may have to wait a little at either one but this is the off tourist season and all the retirees are back in FL so there are not as many people in the area.

[mackerel_sky]

How much for Brooklyn?

[superjames1992]

Yay, the 18z NAM looks wetter now. Time to get sucked back in or should we wait for an SREF?

It's time to go all-in. You know you want to.

[BullCityWx]

Early Girl Eatery in AVL

[Cold Rain]

It's time to go all-in. You know you want to.

I'm bout to go all in on a Chinese buffet! That's right.

[Shawn]

My top 5 worst interior locations in the SE (north of Florida) for Winter weather.  Speaking average.  Not big historic storms.

 

#1 Waycross

#2 Macon

#3 Augusta

#4 Columbia

#5 Atlanta

[jburns]

Here's some more from RAH:

 

...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SNOW ACCUMULATION

Translation:

Possible insignificant snow accumulation.

Discussion:

There is a chance of a meaningless amount of snow. However, this is by no means certain and at least an equal chance exists of no snow, which, by strange coincidence, would also be meaningless. This effectively doubles the chance of meaningless weather in our area. A meaningless weather advisory may be need for late Tuesday. All persons in central NC should keep abreast of the latest NWS statements concerning this possible round of meaningless weather.

[superjames1992]

On tap for tomorrow:

 

The 12z GFS comes in bone dry, but the 12z NAM leaves hope alive with 0.1" of QPF.  Meanwhile, the 15z RAP, after being dry in previous runs, comes in with a death band that sweeps across NC during the late afternoon and evening with 6-8" of snow.  The crowd goes wild.  The 16z RAP drops totals to 4-6" and by 17z, the RAP is down to flurries.  Meanwhile, the 18z NAM has an initialization error and spits out 2-4" of snow across central NC.  NCEP announces the error, but some of us cling to it, anyways.  In the meantime, daylight seeps away and a stray 10-mile wide snow band sweeps across the area, whitening up elevated surfaces while DCA records 10" of snow.  However, Ji still complains that his area only got 8" of snow while Winchester got jackpotted with 18-22".

[frazdaddy]

 

On tap for tomorrow:

 

The 12z GFS comes in bone dry, but the 12z NAM leaves hope alive with 0.1" of QPF.  Meanwhile, the 15z RAP, after being dry in previous runs, comes in with a death band that sweeps across NC during the late afternoon and evening with 6-8" of snow.  The crowd goes wild.  The 16z RAP drops totals to 4-6" and by 17z, the RAP is down to flurries.  Meanwhile, the 18z NAM has an initialization error and spits out 2-4" of snow across central NC.  NCEP announces the error, but some of us cling to it, anyways.  In the meantime, daylight seeps away and a stray 10-mile wide snow band sweeps across the area, whitening up elevated surfaces while DCA records 10" of snow.  However, Ji still complains that his area only got 8" of snow while Winchester got jackpotted with 18-22".

Ok thats It...Burns meet me on 77 we're going to the farm

[metalicwx366]

I didn't even know I posted in that thread. Let me delete those lol. I thought that was the Banter thread.

[Jonathan]

Might as well start now...

[NCSNOW]

Brad P is right on que. I've been saying for a couple of days this weekend provides the best opp we have to get a synoptic snow.   Not saying it's gonna happen but it's the best POTENTIAL look we have had in a long time to get a synoptic snow. I've seen better looking ones but for the first time this winter the potential is there at least. The cold will be here, it's a matter of getting energy ejected at the right time and trajectory from the 4 corners region later this week.

[Cold Rain]

Brad P is right on que. I've been saying for a couple of days this weekend provides the best opp we have to get a synoptic snow.   Not saying it's gonna happen but it's the best POTENTIAL look we have had in a long time to get a synoptic snow. I've seen better looking ones but for the first time this winter the potential is there at least. The cold will be here, it's a matter of getting energy ejected at the right time and trajectory from the 4 corners region later this week.

Strongly agree.

[metalicwx366]

Strongly agree.

Strongly disagree. No model even shows precipitation getting into Carolinas. Hell it barely gets down here. We get upper 30s or low 40s with drizzle. Texas might get something.

[Cold Rain]

Strongly disagree. No model even shows precipitation getting into Carolinas. Hell it barely gets down here. We get upper 30s or low 40s with drizzle. Texas might get something.

#modelhugger

[superjames1992]

Strongly disagree. No model even shows precipitation getting into Carolinas. Hell it barely gets down here. We get upper 30s or low 40s with drizzle. Texas might get something.

 

Both the Euro and GFS show a winter storm in the D9-D10 period, though.  I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's possible.  Something to watch, anyways, and that's what we're here for.

[metalicwx366]

Both the Euro and GFS show a winter storm in the D9-D10 period, though. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's possible. Something to watch, anyways, and that's what we're here for.

Should I create the thread or nah?