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January Banter


Isopycnic

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I was @ the whee during that one. The only weather info you got back then was off wlos. Heard a storm was coming a few days in advance but it was March and we had no idea what we where about to witness. Anyway It was a full fledged Blizzard. Started snowing Friday afternoon/evening but the hammer feel that Saturday with 50 mph gust and 18 inches of fresh snow. Missed the ACC tourny due to power outages and saw the Tuckasegee river freeze over the following Sunday/Monday.

 

Edit: I rank the Carolina Crusher as my most impressive personal expierence. The 15 inches that came completely out of nowhere. Next would be the 93 superstorm, then February 2004 17 incher, followed by the major ice storm of 2002.

 

The time span from 1993 to 2004 would have been awesome on this board with those big 4 winter events plus Fran,Floyd,Bonnie & Bertha. Amazing stretch of weather here in NC for sure!

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Today that would be a chase.

 

That is the DBM my friend, a 36-48hr 4'+ event, google triple phaser, HM's thread on Eastern is still the first hit.

 

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/57019-triple-phasers-are-we-due/

 

To quote...

 

A triple phaser is a rare but perhaps one of the most exciting meteorological events and they fascinate me deeply. A list of the most recent triple phasers:

MAR 1993 superbomb

JAN 1978 OH superbomb

LATE JAN 1966 SUB 500DM 500mb low!

NOV 1950 great appalchian bomb

These storms are when the Artic jet, polar jet and sub tropical jet phase and have baroclinic zones w/ amazing temperature gradients... amazing jet winds.... amazing slp .... everything is amazing. LOL... any specific conditions used to predict winter help predict the odds of one?

ENSO:

1950-51: moderate-strong la nina that persisted more than one year.

1965-66: moderate-strong el nino that was quite strong in the fall.

1977-78: weak-moderate el nino, generally weaker.

1992-93: neutral ENSO conditions that followed an el nino/in el nino period.

QBO:

1950-51: easterly w/ value around -4

1965-66: VERY STRONG E QBO... -21 in JAN!

1977-78: weakly west QBO.. around 4 in JAN

1992-93 westerly QBO....increased to 11 by MAR.

There isnt much of a year set here.... so we dont have much to work with. I know by experience that la nina-east and el nino-west combinations of ENSO and QBO are the best for blockiness/cold and east coast winter storms vs la nina-west or la el nino-east. But that doesnt mean you can get that activity in other combos, you just have better chance. Perfect example of 96-97 where it was neutral after la nina, and it generally was terrible... however QBO switched westerly in april w/ the approaching 1997 el nino, and lo and behold a noreaster on aprils fools day! SO the indices can really effect the pattern.

la nina-east for 50-51.... el nino-west 77-78.... neutral-west in 92-93, but neutral in an el nino period can behave like el nino..... perhaps the indices were so strong in 65-66 that something had to give? lol ... the point is, there isnt much correlation for triple phasers. They remain a rare / unforseen beast! FOR NOW ! lol .... 

frequence: 16 years, 12 years, 15 years .... its been 12 years since MAR 93, so we are now in triple phaser hunting season. 2006 will be 13 years. 

Neutral-east never made the list for the past 4, but given theres no correlation, it would be lovely to add to the already useless mix of global indices!

 

 

Happens more than many in the SE may think for the LE regions of NY state, isolated instances into coastal NE during some Cat 3 and 4's.  If we ever move, wife knows I like Oswego county NY, compromise may be the favored upslope area of W NC.  Eastern NC sucks for +SN, I avg 3.4" per year @ PGV, not cool.

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East Central FL (born and raised in Brevard county), freshman in HS, remember the tornados that morning with a few deaths in counties to my west.

 

I was about 7 at the time. Living about an hour to your west. I don't remember that.. which I guess is selective memory.

 

But I do remember the great florida hailstorm of 92. Actually I think there was 2 big hailstorms that came through that year. But the one I remember sure f'ed somethings up. I remember all the greenhouses broken, lots of houses had roof and siding damage, cars were pretty well totaled, trees too a beating. 30 mins after the storm passed we still had hailstones the size of tangerines.

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 Anyone staying up for the king tonight? I think it would be quite therapeutic. That would be Sunday therapy item #1. Hopefully, that would be all that is needed for Sunday. What's the old saying? When the king speaks, people lose all doubt.

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Heres the Archived Data, (History), from the 1993 *Super Storm*... As It came up the Coast Here in Wilmington..

Me & My then Wife were in Bolivia, Warm Sunny, slightly breezy, Morning, High Temps approaching almost 75..

Around 9am things started breezy, between 10AM & 12PM things really started to get UGLY,We began leaving BY 12PM We were on Our way back to Wilmington, Temps started crashing, By then, SNOW WAS FLYING, nearly a *white-out*, Wind(s) approaching Hurricane Force, Pine trees cracking & breaking, (PLUS Branches flying across the highway), as We came back down 17 towards ILM...Normal 45 minute drive took almost 3 hours, Traffic was at a crawl because of the Wind/Snow & flying "debris",, Really, My Wife was scared  S-less driving in that. (My License were "suspended during that time).. I was 29 that year, going on 30.. 

 

Heres the Data from that Day

3/1993

post-2767-0-98463000-1390134741_thumb.jp

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 Anyone staying up for the king tonight? I think it would be quite therapeutic. That would be Sunday therapy item #1. Hopefully, that would be all that is needed for Sunday. What's the old saying? When the king speaks, people lose all doubt.

I was up around 2:30 - 3:30 watching for some flyin' flakes and got some of that therapy then. I then went back to bed and slept like a log! 

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I got lucky in 93 in that we started as sleet and switched to snow without much rain. Sleet started around dark and by 8:30 we had several inches. We measure 14" at our house but my uncle up the street measured 18". It was hard to get a true measurement with all of the drifting.

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I can't believe how good looking that clipper looked yesterday to completely fall apart and be such a disappointment. Well so much for my mojo.  I guess thats the way the cookie crumbles.

I was up around 2:30 - 3:30 watching for some flyin' flakes and got some of that therapy then. I then went back to bed and slept like a log! 

 

Congrats eventhough it wasn't much. Atleast somebody seen some flakes.

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Is there a site or a link that would allow a comparison between what the GFS OP was showing 10, 12 or 14 days ago with current conditions?

 

Or if not, is there a site that shows how well the GFS OP has verified from prior runs going back 10, 12 or 14 days ago?

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_model_verification.php

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Cant help but notice the cold outlook in the LR continuing to creep further away. Was looking like a 1/25 timeframe and now i see this morning the discussion is centering around 2/2-2/3. Even my 11 year old is singing the blues and commented that the same thing happened last year. (Kept pushing events out beyond 200 hours.)

This has me as depressed as a New England victory later today. Sigh.....

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Cant help but notice the cold outlook in the LR continuing to creep further away. Was looking like a 1/25 timeframe and now i see this morning the discussion is centering around 2/2-2/3. Even my 11 year old is singing the blues and commented that the same thing happened last year. (Kept pushing events out beyond 200 hours.)

This has me as depressed as a New England victory later today. Sigh.....

Thats folks discussing the GFS which flops around more than a fish out of water on a dock. The euro op and esp ensembles have been pretty rock steady. The change for us begins during the day Tues. From midnight Tues through the end of the week we probably want spend 10 total hours above freezing, with 3 -4 occuring on Wed while we fight to get to 40 for a high that day. It's not the shock and awe 48 hr low temp cold wave like we exp earlier this month coming, but the long duration of mid 30 highs and teens for lows. When you only spend 2-4 hours an afternoon at or above freezing over the coarse of 1 to 2 weeks it's pretty impressive. The white stuff on the other hand is another debate.

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