Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The last week of the month has gone from potentially epic to maybe nothing at all in just a couple of days. The maybe nothing will probably be right. Should have known to not trust the models in the long range when they show good potential for snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I see the long-range op gfs crackpipe was passed around last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The last week of the month has gone from potentially epic to maybe nothing at all in just a couple of days. The maybe nothing will probably be right. Should have known to not trust the models in the long range when they show good potential for snow here.Actually I don't see anything different today than yesterday. The cold is still coming and the snowstorms the GFS was showing were 300+ hours out so of course that was going to change.It's snowing in Fayetteville NC btw. Can see it on the precipitation depiction on radarscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The last week of the month has gone from potentially epic to maybe nothing at all in just a couple of days. The maybe nothing will probably be right. Should have known to not trust the models in the long range when they show good potential for snow here. To be fair do you even look at models? This statement is false and biased. For folks in the deep south yeah it might not look superb for a blockbuster foot + snow. But to summarize what other folks have summarized is crazy. Maybe you should read more. Cause honestly.... it still looks cold and the snow chances are the same 50/50. FYI no model is going to be 100% right... but there is potential for 2 light snow/flurry events ahead. One in the morning and one potentially about 90 hours out. Personally I hope you score on both flurry events that away maybe it will shut you up for a while. Actually I don't see anything different today than yesterday. The cold is still coming and the snowstorms the GFS was showing were 300+ hours out so of course that was going to change. It's snowing in Fayetteville NC btw. Can see it on the precipitation depiction on radarscope. Agree. Really thats worth repeating. "Actually I don't see anything different today than yesterday. The cold is still coming and the snowstorms the GFS was showing were 300+ hours out so of course that was going to change." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I don't care if its not brutal cold for three weeks straight! As long as its cold enough to snow next Saturday , it can torch the rest of the winter! Hate to call a general, almost board-wide 2-4 inch snow "the one" but I'll be stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Actually I don't see anything different today than yesterday. The cold is still coming and the snowstorms the GFS was showing were 300+ hours out so of course that was going to change. It's snowing in Fayetteville NC btw. Can see it on the precipitation depiction on radarscope. Did you hit some of the euros pipe last night? Most models are showing a decent storm next Saturday ! That honey boo boo math you use does not compute! Next Saturday is not 300 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It is a best possible ski weekend this time of year. Snow at night and relatively sunny days. Get out and enjoy it! I learned the hard way years ago that snow won't be experienced sitting behind a computer screen looking at 5+ day weather models. Snow is best experienced out in winter sports! Get out and Git it Done ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Did you hit some of the euros pipe last night? Most models are showing a decent storm next Saturday ! That honey boo boo math you use does not compute! Next Saturday is not 300 hrsWait.. what are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Wait.. what are you talking about? Models yesterday and day befor were showing a good event next Saturday ! Now they are not! But it was not 300 hrs out, that's why it's a little dissapointing to not see it on there today and the warmer look to the GFS just sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Well, it looks like winter is over again after about 200 hours or so. It was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It is a best possible ski weekend this time of year. Snow at night and relatively sunny days. Get out and enjoy it! Snow is best experienced out in winter sports and won't be experienced sitting behind a computer screen looking at 5+day weather models ! I agree with you, sir, but why do you post the same message in multiple threads? I do plan to enjoy it later this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It is a little concerning when everything looks rock solid for the long range for several days in a row then all the sudden the GFS starts throwing in very crappy runs. I ignored it at first but now it is still doing it. The Euro hasn't fell for it yet though. Still the indices don't look that great either after next week. Hopefully just a hiccup and all falls back in place for continued cold and snow chances. Btw, has anyone seen the crazy uncle for 12z yet to see which way it goes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Tazaroo, the Uncle doesn't release his statements until after 1 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It is a little concerning when everything looks rock solid for the long range for several days in a row then all the sudden the GFS starts throwing in very crappy runs. I ignored it at first but now it is still doing it. The Euro hasn't fell for it yet though. Still the indices don't look that great either after next week. Hopefully just a hiccup and all falls back in place for continued cold and snow chances. Btw, has anyone seen the crazy uncle for 12z yet to see which way it goes? Lmao, looking at the uncle for cold hopes. Sorry, but I think that model is inferior to the GFS/Euro. That's why it is the CU. But the Euro was still frigid at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 What time do GFS ensembles come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Models yesterday and day befor were showing a good event next Saturday ! Now they are not! But it was not 300 hrs out, that's why it's a little dissapointing to not see it on there today and the warmer look to the GFS just sucks I know, but I was referring to the big storms the GFS was showing in fantasy land, because Brick said it looked like things went from potentially epic to nothing at all when the only epic thing the models were showing was in fantasy land, and of course that was going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I know, but I was referring to the big storms the GFS was showing in fantasy land, because Brick said it looked like things went from potentially epic to nothing at all when the only epic thing the models were showing was in fantasy land, and of course that was going to change. I think MetalMan does deserve some credit here for logical thinking. GEFS coming out now and not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I would say we should ban any discussion regarding models beyond 7 days but if that were the case this forum would be dead with nothing to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I know, but I was referring to the big storms the GFS was showing in fantasy land, because Brick said it looked like things went from potentially epic to nothing at all when the only epic thing the models were showing was in fantasy land, and of course that was going to change. Brick's interpretation of things is like the Canadian Ensemble Mean of everyone else's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I would say we should ban any discussion regarding models beyond 7 days but if that were the case this forum would be dead with nothing to talk about. This is a weather board and we discuss weather possibilities months in advance on occasions (tropical season and winter outlooks) are some examples. To some, 2 weeks is a short-term forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I thought the GFS PSD Reforecast would show past maps, but I cannot get any to load. Given the last few runs of the GFS into the long range, I'd be real interested to see what the GFS was showing 10 - 14 days ago for now and early next week. My recollection is that the OP GFS was not catching onto any real cold, but I may be mistaken. In any event, it would be interesting to see how the GFS projected today through next week from 10 or more days ago, and how it has verified recently. Anyone know how to compare old runs with current ones? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I would say we should ban any discussion regarding models beyond 7 days but if that were the case this forum would be dead with nothing to talk about. If that were to happen then really no need in having a wx board for discussions. But I agree... some people do get a little carried away. Every run is a new soap opera. Get all excited and start jizzing in their pants over something shown on the 300+ hr gfs and euro, only to be disappointed come the next run. If anybody is at fault for disappointments its that individual not 300+ hours models runs which honestly the way the modeling has been this winter... the models haven't a damn clue either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It is a best possible ski weekend this time of year. Snow at night and relatively sunny days. Get out and enjoy it! I learned the hard way years ago that snow won't be experienced sitting behind a computer screen looking at 5+ day weather models. Snow is best experienced out in winter sports! Get out and Git it Done ! I agree. Standing in a four hour lift line for a 5 minute downhill, is epic. The real Disney on Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I agree. Standing in a four hour lift line for a 5 minute downhill, is epic. The real Disney on Ice. Ha, that's one of the pros of snow skiing on a 60-degree day in March. No lines! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I agree. Standing in a four hour lift line for a 5 minute downhill, is epic. The real Disney on Ice.Add kids to the mix for the wait, and you have the tower of terror! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Looks like we will be in a very dry period for the next 7-10 days. Really nothing to gives us any good precipitation except for maybe a clipper that gives most of NC a dusting or whatever. I want some rain. I would rather stay in a rainy pattern than become a California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I agree. Standing in a four hour lift line for a 5 minute downhill, is epic. The real Disney on Ice.Wow is that what people really do? Have you ever been skiing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Wow is that what people really do? Have you ever been skiing?Probably not in Waycross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Looks like we will be in a very dry period for the next 7-10 days. Really nothing to gives us any good precipitation except for maybe a clipper that gives most of NC a dusting or whatever. I want some rain. I would rather stay in a rainy pattern than become a California. Don't worry. Once it warms back up, the moisture will be back and we will all get our rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Wow is that what people really do? Have you ever been skiing? I skied several weeks over a three year period in Austria. It pretty much spoiled me for Eastern US skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.