franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 #toss the opi That's just funny stuff right there. lol.. did you read what Ji posted earlier today? That was hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I'm so disappointed. The OPI was great and everything until this month. It might just only have a good handle on the AO for December and November, unless we see a super ++AO equivalent to the strength of the - PII going on currently. Ugh, It had so much accuracy. Maybe a SSW event caused it to fail or some other small scale feature caused the failure. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-480-0-51174400-1381532942.jpg the opi is really unproven. Its like the new theory of global warming causing global cooling m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 What's the OPI? I must have missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 What's the OPI? I must have missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Oh I know Opie Taylor, just not the opi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 We need to make a list of the people who bought in hardcore to that thing and point and laugh. Jk but really, what if those OPI guys are just trolling everyone? I was skeptical of those numbers and graphs from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 lol.. did you read what Ji posted earlier today? That was hilarious. I missed it. I'll go back and look. Was it in the banner thread? It really amazed me how many good, respectable people bought so solidly into it right away. I'd never heard of it before this year. How could something like that just come into the arena and have such broad based buy-in without any doubt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I missed it. I'll go back and look. Was it in the banner thread? It really amazed me how many good, respectable people bought so solidly into it right away. I'd never heard of it before this year. How could something like that just come into the arena and have such broad based buy-in without any doubt? its amazing how it was instantly held up as gospel. Ji said " I need to find a new hobby, like self water boarding". Whatever happened to glaam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 From Kirks blog at 6:23 pm tonight "The primary global equations GFS, GEM, ECWFM and their respective ensembles continue to point to a cold ending to January. They build the western ridge in the East Pacific through Alaska and close off a ridge for a few days over Alaska, and try to build the upper heights such that overall ridging wraps from the East Pacific, across the North Pole, and into eastern Europe. That would essentially create two main vortices in the Northern Hemisphere. One in Siberia, the other In Canada. The day 10 maps show the coldest vortex is in North America, not Siberia!" From Roberts paid site posted yesterday: "All the models and their respective ensembles continue to point to a cold ending to January. With time over the next two weeks the European model and ensemble continues to build the western ridge in the East Pacific through Alaska. Both it and GFS close off a ridge for a few days as well, directly over Alaska, and try to build the heights such that overall ridging wraps from the East Pacific, across the North Pole, and into eastern Europe. That would essentially create two main vortices in the Northern Hemisphere. One in Siberia, the other In Canada. The day 10 maps show the coldest vortex is in North America, not Siberia." Maybe he got his permission? Sorry mods, this probably goes to banter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hey guys if you can go to WSB and ask them why Kirk Mellish ripped off Robert. This was done without his permission and WSB should know that their meteorologist who is well paid as opposed to Robert is plagiarizing his content. Here is what I posted using weathernut's post. https://www.facebook.com/wsbradio Wondering why your meteorologist Kirk Mellish is plagiarizing a local small town meteorologist based out of NC. Is this what you allow as news? From Kirks blog "The primary global equations GFS, GEM, ECWFM and their respective ensembles continue to point to a cold ending to January. They build the western ridge in the East Pacific through Alaska and close off a ridge for a few days over Alaska, and try to build the upper heights such that overall ridging wraps from the East Pacific, across the North Pole, and into eastern Europe. That would essentially create two main vortices in the Northern Hemisphere. One in Siberia, the other In Canada. The day 10 maps show the coldest vortex is in North America, not Siberia!" From WxSouth online blog posted before Kirk's: "All the models and their respective ensembles continue to point to a cold ending to January. With time over the next two weeks the European model and ensemble continues to build the western ridge in the East Pacific through Alaska. Both it and GFS close off a ridge for a few days as well, directly over Alaska, and try to build the heights such that overall ridging wraps from the East Pacific, across the North Pole, and into eastern Europe. That would essentially create two main vortices in the Northern Hemisphere. One in Siberia, the other In Canada. The day 10 maps show the coldest vortex is in North America, not Siberia." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Everyone wants it to snow for different reasons.. I just want my mom to see it snow one last time..and it will be a nice distraction for me as well from the hellish past few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Everyone wants it to snow for different reasons.. I just want my mom to see it snow one last time..and it will be a nice distraction for me as well from the hellish past few months We'll all be rooting for it extra hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Did mellish really think no one would notice ? Or did he not care? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 the opi is really unproven. Its like the new theory of global warming causing global cooling mYeah we still have February so not sure why some are so quick to criticize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Opi is a good nail polish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Yeah we still have February so not sure why some are so quick to criticize it. I mean I'm all for innovation and people discovering new indices and what not to make better forecasts, it just sounded too good to be true to me and what I've always known is when it sounds too good to be true...then it probably is. Weather, just like everything, loves disorder and has high entropy, at least to me. Most of it is instability and energy. I'm sure somewhere in the field they study that fact, theoretical meteorology maybe? There's always going to be a pattern that surprises us and indices that don't work, ones that do, blind squirrels that find nuts, etc. That's what makes forecasting fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Hey guys if you can go to WSB and ask them why Kirk Mellish ripped off Robert. This was done without his permission and WSB should know that their meteorologist who is well paid as opposed to Robert is plagiarizing his content. Here is what I posted using weathernut's post. https://www.facebook.com/wsbradio He did a few years ago too! Did you get a response? I posted something as well. Complete and total disrespect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Did mellish really think no one would notice ? Or did he not care? Kirk has been around for a long time and is a good met IMO. Who posted first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Kirk has been around for a long time and is a good met IMO. Who posted first? Robert did. He has ripped stuff off before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Kirk has been around for a long time and is a good met IMO. Who posted first? Robert posted on the 15th, Mellish on the 16th. We've got all kinds of documentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Van Denton getting ready to drop the cold hammer on the 10:00 news. Teasing on the next two cold shots and the pattern change for the rest of january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 its amazing how it was instantly held up as gospel. Ji said " I need to find a new hobby, like self water boarding" . Whatever happened to glaam? Haha! Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I think that's pathetic shows you that you really can't believe anything anymore.. the time robert takes to make his forecast and discussions and to get plagarized like that is just wrong... kirk should loose his job.. and should loose a lot of followers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 the shortwave coming through the Lowcountry of South Carolina has mustered quite a surprise, a huge flash of lightning, which I thought was originally a transformer blowing with some wind, but it was a long rolling peel of thunder. check of the radar and sure enough, so much for PWATS around 0.4 inches. it was enough to trigger elevated convection in Charleston County. and a check of the AFD, sheesh .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN WATERVAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SWING ACROSS THE EASTERNCAROLINAS/GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THENORTHEAST. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THECENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREALATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AND EASTOF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.DESPITE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCINGALONG THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LOWERSOUTH CAROLINA AND FAR UPPER GEORGIA COASTS. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMSHAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND EVEN A REPORT OF BRIEF PEA-SIZED HAILRECEIVED FROM THE SAVANNAH AREA. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLYSHIFT OFFSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THENEXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH JUST SOME MID-LEVELCLOUDS PERSISTING.WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO THEPRESSURE GRADIENT AND IMPENDING COLD ADVECTION. EXPECT WEST WINDSTO BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 MPH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALLQUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH LOWS BOTTOMINGOUT IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND RANGING TO LOW TO MID 30S AT THECOAST. and two more hail reports in Charleston 000NWUS52 KCHS 180332LSRCHSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC1032 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..1027 PM HAIL JAMES ISLAND 32.73N 79.93W01/17/2014 E0.25 INCH CHARLESTON SC PUBLICPEA SIZE HAIL OFF OF FORT JOHNSON ROAD.&&EVENT NUMBER CHS1400063$VB 000NWUS52 KCHS 180330LSRCHSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC1029 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..1020 PM HAIL 1 S CHARLESTON 32.77N 79.94W01/17/2014 E0.25 INCH CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTERPEA SIZE HAIL NEAR THE CORNER OF BROAD STREET ANDRUTLEDGE AVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 ^That's really cool. I would have loved for that to come through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Send the convection my way tonight stormsfurry after I hit 32. Alright I'm betting before Wednesday night we have a true synoptic winter storm event thread running. Banking on how trigger happy we all have become thanks to the 3 year snow drought we are approaching as well as consistent smoke signals being sent out by the ops and ensembles for the last 6 day stretch of January. This isn't a textbook snow pattern we are heading into but it is worlds better than anything we've seen in a long time. Taking at face value it should be able to produce and reward several of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I mean I'm all for innovation and people discovering new indices and what not to make better forecasts, it just sounded too good to be true to me and what I've always known is when it sounds too good to be true...then it probably is. Weather, just like everything, loves disorder and has high entropy, at least to me. Most of it is instability and energy. I'm sure somewhere in the field they study that fact, theoretical meteorology maybe? There's always going to be a pattern that surprises us and indices that don't work, ones that do, blind squirrels that find nuts, etc. That's what makes forecasting fun. Yeah, probably was too good to be true, and I agree that there will always be a pattern that surprises us. We should be glad that we have gotten that - EPO this year. We saw what happened in December once it relaxed along with the very positive AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 How come the 00z GFS seems to want to crush snow lovers dreams? Did the same last night? How can you go from epic cold to no ridge at all in one run? Hopefully that not worrying about every run statement that is always made holds some truth, on to the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 the shortwave coming through the Lowcountry of South Carolina has mustered quite a surprise, a huge flash of lightning, which I thought was originally a transformer blowing with some wind, but it was a long rolling peel of thunder. check of the radar and sure enough, so much for PWATS around 0.4 inches. it was enough to trigger elevated convection in Charleston County. WUNIDS_map.gif and a check of the AFD, sheesh .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING ALONG THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA AND FAR UPPER GEORGIA COASTS. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND EVEN A REPORT OF BRIEF PEA-SIZED HAIL RECEIVED FROM THE SAVANNAH AREA. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH JUST SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING. Lordy StormsFury, You sgould be HERE right now, (KILM).. What you mentioned the shortwave coming through the Lowcountry..... Robust indeed... It's just started to come up into KILM area(s).. LOTS of Lighting & Thunder + HEAVY PRECIP... caught ME BY SURPRISE, *rattled* Me outta bed, wife is up, DOG in Hiding... Again Heavy Wind(s), Lotsa Lighting/Thunder/Heavy Precip Temp 55 Winds from the north at 10 dew point 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Must not be much of a variance in the short term perturbations to create such wildly different solutions in the long term. If you bet against ANY extremes, you will get it right 98% of the time. I highly doubt there will be anything historic coming up in the next few weeks. It looks like slightly to sometimes moderately below normal for a few days and then back to typical cool to mild conditions. Unfortunately, it looks to remain dry with predominant northwest flow. Hopefully, it will exhaust this northwest flow pattern and then return to sw flow for summer (wet and relatively cooler). Trough is centered too far east to help Atlanta for possible snow. NC may still catch a storm before the pattern relaxes. It's hard to go against Robert G. and JB, but I don't think you can ever safely forecast extremes unless it's imminent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Picked up around .56 inches of Liquid from that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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