Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think it is better for folks to be prepared than caught off-guard. I bet the folks in Atlanta wish they knew snow was coming and stayed home from work and school Tuesday. And maybe this isn't snow, but it looks like it could be ice. The important thing is there could be a big storm next week, whether snow or ice, and people should be following it. It's almost as if on here people are not happy because it isn't snow so they don't care about it. Even though some places do show snow and then ice on the Euro. The important thing isn't that the Euro is wrong in showing all the snow but that there could be a big storm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWXnc Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just read this interesting article about long range models and social media. I for one could care less what people do with a bs euro snow map. But this author has some great points on why we should care... http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2014/01/monster_blizzard_headed_to_nj_probably_not_but_social_media_is_a_powerful_thing.html Good read -- thanks for posting! Exactly summarizes my opinion about it, and brings up some points I hadn't considered before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We gonna talk about Facebook and false snow maps or the new run of the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWXnc Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We gonna talk about Facebook and false snow maps or the new run of the GFS? Well since this is the banter thread -- in case you missed it -- the new run of the GFS is in the discussion thread, so you should probably check over there (just messin' with you btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just read this interesting article about long range models and social media. I for one could care less what people do with a bs euro snow map. But this author has some great points on why we should care... http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2014/01/monster_blizzard_headed_to_nj_probably_not_but_social_media_is_a_powerful_thing.html Good post, Strong. Thanks for the article. I hear the author, but I'm still not convinced that it's really a big deal. It might be a headache for the NWS mets, but we all have different headaches with our jobs, and they're constantly changing. We must learn to adapt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you're probably right! Maybe that's the problem: there's no Snopes for weather models Yep -- it's just an interesting discussion topic these days, especially with what Atlanta just went through and already rumors of another storm on the horizon! Complex issue to think about. If they grab up all the pizza & beer, then it is their fault! There's no convincing me otherwise Good stuff, JWXnc. I've enjoyed the friendly debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well since this is the banter thread -- in case you missed it -- the new run of the GFS is in the discussion thread, so you should probably check over there (just messin' with you btw) It's cool, I just await feedback and analysis on every run! I'm hooked on the chase and ups and downs! I know it's about GFS time and I'm on mobile, I'm ready for the GFS to cave to the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's cool, I just await feedback and analysis on every run! I'm hooked on the chase and ups and downs! I know it's about GFS time and I'm on mobile, I'm ready for the GFS to cave to the euro! Not there yet mackerel...I'm out to hr 153 on my maps so close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Calc, But it is misinformation. The misinformation shouldn't even be distributed to anyone, much less the general public. Because they're very inaccurate, what good does it do for the ignorant general public to see them? It is bad enough when they see accurate info. But inaccurate? Example: Euro clown maps yesterday showed 4" of snow in Savannah that day, which was essentially impossible with 850's well above 0C. How is it good for the largely ignorant general public to see maps showing 4": of snow yesterday when it had no chance to happen? Savannah got no snow whatsoever, which I pretty much expected and as the GFS clown showed.. Edit: Now I just read in the other thread that they're circulating maps for next weekend showing ATL getting a huge snow when the model isn't really doing that. OMG, this is really bad! I wish there was a way to outlaw clowns! I saw some maps from that EuroWX site tonight.. I think the guy who wrote the F5Data server/modeling program came up with it. Anyway, the maps were really freakin' accurate with snowfall through 240 hr. None of this explosive & ridiculous stuff going on. So it's not just the Euro data itself. It's the way these people are generating their snow maps judging by just the 32 degree line. Is it really hard to do something like: if surface temps <= 0c & 850mb temps <= 0.5c then consider precip as snowfall accumulation else if surface temps <= 0c & 850 temps > 0.5c then consider precip as freezing rain end if end if This is just random pseudocode to make sense; but it's not that hard. Even I figured out how to script in Grads properly.. which is what a lot of these crap Euro maps are generated on. I'm appauled that a company who's been around as long as accuweather offering a pro data service is generating the same crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think it is better for folks to be prepared than caught off-guard. I bet the folks in Atlanta wish they knew snow was coming and stayed home from work and school Tuesday.They had a winter storm watch up for days then they got a winter weather advisory. Then at 3am it was changed to a winter storm warning "BEFORE!!!" the snow started falling. Plenty of time to decide weather to cancel school or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 They had a winter storm watch up for days then they got a winter weather advisory. Then at 3am it was changed to a winter storm warning "BEFORE!!!" the snow started falling. Plenty of time to decide weather to cancel school or not. Are you kidding me!!!! These decisions to cancel stuff for the next day have to be made by 9pm the night before, Heck, just with school buses alone some are on the road at 5:30am. Not to metion parents and family jobs, planning, transportation industry. No. You make these all-call decisions the night before. Wake county did it right. Sure wasted an entire day, but didn't get caught like Atlanta. As for the NWS--making the call to WSW in the middle of the night did no good. Having said that, Atlanta should have known better watching the northwest trends and made the call the evening before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is a good debate. Lots of people agreeing with each side I have to side with calc on this one. It's info availible to everyone. How they use it is up to them. I believe eventualy they will figure out how difficult forcasting really is and leave it to to the more educated to tell them whats happening. It's a new toy right now. They will get bored when it doesn't work the way they want it to. To me the ten day model is alot like trying to name the super bowl champion at the begining of the season. You have some good info but no where near enough to make a call. That does't stop some people from trying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think it is better for folks to be prepared than caught off-guard. I bet the folks in Atlanta wish they knew snow was coming and stayed home from work and school Tuesday. And maybe this isn't snow, but it looks like it could be ice. The important thing is there could be a big storm next week, whether snow or ice, and people should be following it. It's almost as if on here people are not happy because it isn't snow so they don't care about it. Even though some places do show snow and then ice on the Euro. The important thing isn't that the Euro is wrong in showing all the snow but that there could be a big storm next weekend. I think they had a clue, there was a winter storm warning issued at 3 in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Are you kidding me!!!! These decisions to cancel stuff for the next day have to be made by 9pm the night before, Heck, just with school buses alone some are on the road at 5:30am. Not to metion parents and family jobs, planning, transportation industry. No. You make these all-call decisions the night before. Wake county did it right. Sure wasted an entire day, but didn't get caught like Atlanta. As for the NWS--making the call to WSW in the middle of the night did no good. Having said that, Atlanta should have known better watching the northwest trends and made the call the evening before. This is not true. They do not have to make that call by 9pm. My ex wife was teacher and numerous times we have gotten the call at 430 to 5 in the morning that school was closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So our next great threat turned into the next great rain threat overnight? Bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is not true. They do not have to make that call by 9pm. My ex wife was teacher and numerous times we have gotten the call at 430 to 5 in the morning that school was closed. Yep this is definitely true here in Cherokee (I'm just a parent but I've seen it happen as well). IMHO Cherokee kind of had an excuse in that we didn't have a warning in place that morning. The superintendent started sending kids home as soon as he realized we were getting hammered with no warning in in place (it didn't come until hours later, in the afternoon). However, it's like everyone in the metro counties was completely not paying attention to that 3:38am warning they got. I get the feeling that a lot of them were just like Deal and his guys - from what I saw on the news, more than one of them admitted they had no idea there was even an upgraded storm warning in place until mid-morning, when everyone had already gone to work and school. I don't know how off-hours notification works for those high up in the school administrations and government offices - maybe they just need a good old fashioned phone tree to wake everyone up and say "look at this". Sad, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm having a little trouble with colors here, but I think CMC is showing Ice in N.NC on this map from 00z last night? correct me if I'm wrong! And a nice snow for our Va. friends!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I've worked for two school systems in the Atlanta area for the past 25 years. Most systems will wait to make the call early in the AM if things are marginal. I was posting radar maps at 5:42am letting people know what was imminent and was already letting people know what was going on in Birmingham long before it got here. If I can do it, these people in charge can do it. There was no surprise except for those with their heads in the sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm having a little trouble with colors here, but I think CMC is showing Ice in N.NC on this map from 00z last night? correct me if I'm wrong! And a nice snow for our Va. friends!!! Looks like by half a pixel there is some ice in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm having a little trouble with colors here, but I think CMC is showing Ice in N.NC on this map from 00z last night? correct me if I'm wrong! And a nice snow for our Va. friends!!! This is the banter thread. What do you think you're doing posting weather related stuff here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1352Z FRI JAN 31 2014THE 12Z NAM STARTED ON TIME.12Z RAOB RECAP..91348/PNI - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY FROM 886MB TO 850MB; SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE72365/ABQ - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY 205 MB TO 200MB SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE.71600/YSA - SHORT TO 463MB..76256/GYM - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEM.76405/LAP - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEM.76692/HYY - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEM.CRITICAL WEATHER DAY IS IN PLACESTART: 1800Z Thur Jan 30 2014END: 0000Z Tue Feb 04 2014REASON FOR THE SUPER BOWLSHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1352Z FRI JAN 31 2014 THE 12Z NAM STARTED ON TIME. 12Z RAOB RECAP.. 91348/PNI - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY FROM 886MB TO 850MB; SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE 72365/ABQ - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY 205 MB TO 200MB SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. 71600/YSA - SHORT TO 463MB.. 76256/GYM - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEM. 76405/LAP - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEM. 76692/HYY - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEM. CRITICAL WEATHER DAY IS IN PLACE START: 1800Z Thur Jan 30 2014 END: 0000Z Tue Feb 04 2014 REASON FOR THE SUPER BOWL SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP so the model run has the flu. !!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You can't hide information from people. I see no problem with letting information out. It is now up to the individual consumer what they choose to do with it. The Euro snow maps are not some super-classified, government secret that only those with high-level clearance are allowed to see. If people want to go crazy with this information, then let them. It's their choice. Others might choose to educate themselves and see what the map really means and how it's created. That would be a great thing for our weather hobby/devotion/addiction that we all share on this board. So, I must respectfully disagree with you on this, Larry. Agree, so all of a sudden the people posting on this board are the "experts?" Folks on here discuss soundings and Meteostar 7-10 days out like they're facts; mood swiings are wild; it's gonna snow, no it's gonna ice; no it's a torch. Witness the "discussion" amongst red-taggers leading up to the even this week; they were "discussing" the validity of short-term models. And "discussing" is a nice word. The weather is what it is; a more involved and interested public is good; there's so much information out there those who think they are more knowledgable can help educate the rest of us. Hold public and appointed officials feet to the fire; if everybody sees it coming and they bury their heads in the sand then there will be repercussions. Nobody here has a firm handle on what's going to happen so I have to chuckle when they think this is their little toy and nobody else can see it or use it. The more the merrier and when the next one hits hopefully more are prepared. And to the school bus issue; anybody who says schools have to make decisions at 9pm the night before really doesn't have a clue; they can make the call as late as when the busses start to roll in the morning. Sure they'd like to do it a bit sooner but if a warning comes out @ 3:45am they can pull the trigger and cancel school. They'd like to get the word sooner rather than later but 3:45am gave them plenty of time; Fulton Schools were idiots for having a full day; there's zero excuse for that stupid decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like by half a pixel there is some ice in NC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 All those coldinistas with their crazy cold Feb pattern may have to start back peddling soon. Unless models and indices are completely wrong, nothing cold looks to be on the horizon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 All those coldinistas with their crazy cold Feb pattern may have to start back peddling soon. Unless models and indices are completely wrong, nothing cold looks to be on the horizon! Honestly, I would be fine with it. We have had plenty of cold for me this year. And the 3 inches of snow has scratched the itch. Not saying I wouldn't care for another good event but I'm pretty satisfied with this winter as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Honestly, I would be fine with it. We have had plenty of cold for me this year. And the 3 inches of snow has scratched the itch. Not saying I wouldn't care for another good event but I'm pretty satisfied with this winter as is. Me too I've had record cold in between a slight thaw that kept me from getting too bored, a flizzard in Nov, and sleet, ice and snow just the other day. I can't ask for much more in a winter pattern that is soooo close, but yet sooooo far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I can't beleive Wake County schools are closed again today over 3 inches of snow. I know it's better to be safe than sorry, but either this is overkill or the DOT sucks at clearing roads here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So can someone explain whats going on with the snow??? http://freepatriot.org/2014/01/30/watch-multiple-reports-isnt-normal-snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I can't beleive Wake County schools are closed again today over 3 inches of snow. I know it's better to be safe than sorry, but either this is overkill or the DOT sucks at clearing roads here. I said the same thing to my wife this morning. Our son just tracked back in (he's on year-round). He went back to school for 3 days and has been out for 4. Tuesday being closed was the head-scratcher. It's like since 2005, there's no evaluation that goes on anymore. Since one time in history, the perfect confluence of events trapped everyone on the road, the course now is to cancel everything. I remember growing up, you would go to bed and school would be on. You would get up and go to school. Then you would get out early. Or you would get up and school would be delayed. Now, if it is supposed to snow at any point in the day, it's cancelled. And I was never out for a week for 3-4 inches of snow. That's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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