January Banter

[frazdaddy]

Copied from the storm thread  

   

You guys did a great job! Trolls were delt with and fun was had by all. Great event. Thank You for all your time and effort guys.

[Isopycnic]

Copied from the storm thread    

   

[Isopycnic]

The dry air took a toll on the flakes. No really fluffy dendrites. Just small needles and desiccated dendrites.

[Cold Rain]

LMA needs a timeout or extended vacation.

55 post in 4 years don't even know he exist till a "busted" snowstorm.

He's probably one of the briercreek people.

[packbacker]

Woohoo, streak continues, looks like RDU came in at 1.4"! Still since 2010 without a 2" snowstorm. This just made my day icing on the cake for this bust.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

[frazdaddy]

Woohoo, streak continues, looks like RDU came in at 1.4"! Still since 2010 without a 2" snowstorm. This just made my day icing on the cake for this bust.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

You know stamp collecting is a great hobby. You should give it a try.

[Cold Rain]

Woohoo, streak continues, looks like RDU came in at 1.4"! Still since 2010 without a 2" snowstorm. This just made my day icing on the cake for this bust.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

You called it dude. Hats off. What did you end up with?

I just can't believe how hard it is to get accumulating snow. I have lived in NC all my life and we used to get at least one decent snowfall every year until the 90s. Now, you get more mixing, less qpf, boundary layer issues, less dynamic cooling, etc etc etc. it's crazy.

[packbacker]

You called it dude. Hats off. What did you end up with?

I just can't believe how hard it is to get accumulating snow. I have lived in NC all my life and we used to get at least one decent snowfall every year until the 90s. Now, you get more mixing, less qpf, boundary layer issues, less dynamic cooling, etc etc etc. it's crazy.

 

I ended up with about 1.5".  Looking at the numbers is just crazy, prior to 1990 we would consistently get 7-10" seasons and we would have a couple of seasons every 10 years that were klunkers but than we would have 2 or 3 every 10 years that were 10"+ seasons.  Those days are gone, I don't want to get into a climate debate as that is such a hot button topic, but other areas are doing fairly well, for goodness sakes PGV probably has us tripled up over the past 10 years and they have a 30 year snow average half of what we do.  Not sure what they finished at, but I guess they are 200% of climo this season and they were climo+ last season.  So really it's just been bad luck the past 10 years, it's been very close to being a really snowy 10 years for us but we have just missed bigger snows NSEW.  

 

I know I got ripped apart yesterday for calling the bust so early, but it was fairly evident, the HRRR nailed it, the trough wasn't digging as much and things started ticking east and that's all it took, 30 miles west and we are 4-6".

[burgertime]

You called it dude. Hats off. What did you end up with?

I just can't believe how hard it is to get accumulating snow. I have lived in NC all my life and we used to get at least one decent snowfall every year until the 90s. Now, you get more mixing, less qpf, boundary layer issues, less dynamic cooling, etc etc etc. it's crazy.

 

I still think RDU folks have little to complain about. I had to watch during 2009 and 2010 you guys getting pounded round after round while I was stuck on the outside looking in. Even in March of 2009 CLT underperformed. I think 2003 was the last time CLT jackpotted during a storm. Meanwhile RDU was killing it. Don't even mention 2011 to me. 

[Jon]

Yeah apologies to packbacker, I can't believe all of that moisture over GA didn't at least skim RDU. This storm was an epic bust for most places. It could have been much different had that southern energy even incorporated. I hate when we miss big snowfalls by a hair.

[Cold Rain]

Yeah apologies to packbacker, I can't believe all of that moisture over GA didn't at least skim RDU. This storm was an epic bust for most places. It could have been much different had that southern energy even incorporated. I hate when we miss big snowfalls by a hair.

Exactly, because we just don't get that many opportunities.

[Dunkman]

I can't believe I did better than RDU, pretty amazing.  Those morning virga bands really helped us out.  Brought the humidity up like 30% so when the main event started around 1pm it almost immediately started snowing.

 

Still, I feel the worst for Asheville.  How KAVL can go over 3 years without measuring 1" I'll never know.  Someone get those guys a snowstorm!

[Cold Rain]

I still think RDU folks have little to complain about. I had to watch during 2009 and 2010 you guys getting pounded round after round while I was stuck on the outside looking in. Even in March of 2009 CLT underperformed. I think 2003 was the last time CLT jackpotted during a storm. Meanwhile RDU was killing it. Don't even mention 2011 to me.

Yeah, but it's been the other way around some too. Anyway, no complaining from me. It would just be nice to get back to the days where you could count on a decent snow every year...whether you're CLT, GSO, RDU or wherever.

On another note, it looks like we're going to make it through yet another winter with no -NAO, after supposedly entering into a period of it predominately being in the - phase.

[packbacker]

I still think RDU folks have little to complain about. I had to watch during 2009 and 2010 you guys getting pounded round after round while I was stuck on the outside looking in. Even in March of 2009 CLT underperformed. I think 2003 was the last time CLT jackpotted during a storm. Meanwhile RDU was killing it. Don't even mention 2011 to me.

You must be thinking of a different RDU, we missed the historic Dec 2009 blizzard, cold rain. We then underperformed with the end Jan event as it was a lot of sleet and then the mid Feb event PGV jackpotted, we got 2". Finished around 8", so 1" over climo for a "historic" winter. GSO killed it that year, had to be almost 20" season. I am fairly sure PGV had a 10" season, so again they topped us. We definitely have room to complain, as does AVL.

[packbacker]

Yeah, but it's been the other way around some too. Anyway, no complaining from me. It would just be nice to get back to the days where you could count on a decent snow every year...whether you're CLT, GSO, RDU or wherever.

On another note, it looks like we're going to make it through yet another winter with no -NAO, after supposedly entering into a period of it predominately being in the - phase.

Winter looks like it could be over here, the SE ridge looks like it woke up from his PV beat down. The Euro is trying to bring lower heights into its run for the SE but looks very marginal, and you know how marginal works out around here. The pattern looks ripe for the MA to the NE. I do think a big one will come for the mountains/foothills, I will be rooting hard for them to get hit.

The rubber band has to snap for RDU eventually, we can't keep up this futility forever, or can it...

[mackerel_sky]

Yeah, this was a bust on the modeling all the way around. The mountains weren't even in the game until the day before, when a magical finger appeared! They ended up with as much as anybody else. I guess they can always get snow , no matter what!

[superjames1992]

Has anyone heard from Brick? I hope he's okay and that the cliff didn't overcome him.

[Cold Rain]

Winter looks like it could be over here, the SE ridge looks like it woke up from his PV beat down. The Euro is trying to bring lower heights into its run for the SE but looks very marginal, and you know how marginal works out around here. The pattern looks ripe for the MA to the NE. I do think a big one will come for the mountains/foothills, I will be rooting hard for them to get hit.

The rubber band has to snap for RDU eventually, we can't keep up this futility forever, or can it...

Nah, we'll come back at some point. Really, I'm not too worried about the SE ridge killing the rest of the winter. I think we'll probably escape below normal temps for the next 10 days to two weeks and after that, it's anyone's guess. I suspect that we'll see more arctic intrusions, though they should lessen in severity as we reach the end of Feb. The SE ridge has not had staying power all winter. Maybe this time is different, but I doubt it. Plus, there have been more hints of a -NAO recently. That's a good sign, but will it establish itself in time? I'm not confident enough in it to rely on it to honk for a snowy 2nd half of Feb.

I do think we have 1 or 2 more legit possibilities of a significant winter event, but that's predicated on my thoughts above that the -PNA/SE ridge doesn't maintain it's hold. I strongly suspect that the Euro and the GFS are right about having a system in the 8-10 day range -- it looks to be an active period. BUT, I also strongly suspect it will trend warmer, not colder, as we get closer. That's much more likely when you have a trough in the west and a PV that rotates north, not east. The models are showing it heading more east with time, creating confluence across the NE, locking in HP for our 10 day winter storm. But that hasn't been the case very much this year. We've seen that look in the LR several times so far, but it gives way to the vortex rotating north as we work in. No confluence + SE ridge + -PNA = cutter or Miller screw. If confluence holds, parts of the region will get a winter storm. But we haven't seen a lot of that so far. It's usually very transient.

After that, we have about 3 more weeks of legitimate winter for most of the area. Once we get into March, boundary layer concerns abound, night snow is what you hope for, and the eye of the needle becomes much smaller. And before the climotologists pile on, I know we've had snow in March. But March has not been a great month for snow recently. Anyway, like I said, I'd give about a 60% chance of 1 or 2 more events...greater if we see a real west-based -NAO, but I'm not holding my breath for it.

That's it. Enjoy the snow. It's the only snow you've got.

[franklin NCwx]

^I love March snow, its usually a biggie!

[Cold Rain]

^I love March snow, its usually a biggie!

It's easier to get in your area. How do the ensembles look? Good or like poo?

[packbacker]

Nah, we'll come back at some point. Really, I'm not too worried about the SE ridge killing the rest of the winter. I think we'll probably escape below normal temps for the next 10 days to two weeks and after that, it's anyone's guess. I suspect that we'll see more arctic intrusions, though they should lessen in severity as we reach the end of Feb. The SE ridge has not had staying power all winter. Maybe this time is different, but I doubt it. Plus, there have been more hints of a -NAO recently. That's a good sign, but will it establish itself in time? I'm not confident enough in it to rely on it to honk for a snowy 2nd half of Feb.

I do think we have 1 or 2 more legit possibilities of a significant winter event, but that's predicated on my thoughts above that the -PNA/SE ridge doesn't maintain it's hold. I strongly suspect that the Euro and the GFS are right about having a system in the 8-10 day range -- it looks to be an active period. BUT, I also strongly suspect it will trend warmer, not colder, as we get closer. That's much more likely when you have a trough in the west and a PV that rotates north, not east. The models are showing it heading more east with time, creating confluence across the NE, locking in HP for our 10 day winter storm. But that hasn't been the case very much this year. We've seen that look in the LR several times so far, but it gives way to the vortex rotating north as we work in. No confluence + SE ridge + -PNA = cutter or Miller screw. If confluence holds, parts of the region will get a winter storm. But we haven't seen a lot of that so far. It's usually very transient.

After that, we have about 3 more weeks of legitimate winter for most of the area. Once we get into March, boundary layer concerns abound, night snow is what you hope for, and the eye of the needle becomes much smaller. And before the climotologists pile on, I know we've had snow in March. But March has not been a great month for snow recently. Anyway, like I said, I'd give about a 60% chance of 1 or 2 more events...greater if we see a real west-based -NAO, but I'm not holding my breath for it.

That's it. Enjoy the snow. It's the only snow you've got.

 

Not going to post this in the Wx Pattern Discussion thread, you just get ripped apart for saying it's not going to snow.  The CPC Super Ens have been pretty good this winter, it's been consistently advertising small type events based on the analogs and that did come to fruition.  The day 8 and 11 analogs are not good, big SE ridge and obviously not snowy for our area, so things look fairly bleak until at least after Feb 10th, as you were saying above, and that leaves us with roughly 3 weeks to play with.  Will see what happens, at least we will be done with this crazy cold for awhile.  I will say the mountains/foothills has a chance with the day 8 and 10 storm, just need a little relaxation with the SE ridge and the lows could track just east of that area, pattern does look active and opens up the gulf, could be some big ones, in fact be shocked if we didn't see a big one plaster the MW to the NE in the next 10 days or so.

 

One more note, the Euro Ens days 12-15 look very close to something nice, -AO/-NAO, neutral PNA, big snow type pattern, but you can tell there some spread, but if we were not in such a snow drought I would be very interested, but this isn't our time right now.

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

I don't twitter or follow JB, but word on the street is, he does not believe this will be the last Deep South snow this winter!

[franklin NCwx]

It's easier to get in your area. How do the ensembles look? Good or like poo?

euro ensembles bring the trough back end of next week.

[mackerel_sky]

I know it's TWC , but they have rain in the forecast next Wed and Thur with highs in 40s lows in the 20s, hmmmm, let's start a thread!

[Cold Rain]

Thanks Pack and Franklin. That's good to know. That makes me feel like I'm not out to lunch with my expectations, which is always nice. I appreciate the insight. And Mackrel, I saw that on JB's TWTR feed. Allan is talking about a more favorable pattern on Twitter too, so that's good.

It's funny, as much as I was disappointed that we missed an opportunity for a good bit more snow, the time leading up to it, while nerve-racking, was a lot of fun. I enjoy hanging out with all you guys on this board and chasing after the snow unicorn together.

[weatherheels]

I want a FOOT NOW.  I WANT A FOOT NOW!!!   If i dont get a foot now, i'll wait until i do get a foot, but one of these days, I'll get a foot, and hopefully not up my arse. 

[packbacker]

Thanks Pack and Franklin. That's good to know. That makes me feel like I'm not out to lunch with my expectations, which is always nice. I appreciate the insight. And Mackrel, I saw that on JB's TWTR feed. Allan is talking about a more favorable pattern on Twitter too, so that's good.

It's funny, as much as I was disappointed that we missed an opportunity for a good bit more snow, the time leading up to it, while nerve-racking, was a lot of fun. I enjoy hanging out with all you guys on this board and chasing after the snow unicorn together.

 

I am trying not to think about how close we were to something historic yesterday, if that darn southern energy was a little quicker we would have had a top 5 snow storm instead of a top 5 bust, but a chance is all you can ask for, and the little under 2" I got still nice, I forgot what it looked like to have the roads covered with snow.

 

BTW - the 12z GEFS just flipped at day 10/11, shows a pretty darn good pattern, someone is going to get a big dog next weekend, not us obviously, one thing I do know is this won't be a OBX/Norfolk special.  If I was in the foothills/mtns I would be model watching like crazy.

[packbacker]

Looking at this some more, the Aleutian Ridge looks to be a permanent feature in the LR which I thought typical argues for a trough in the west, which is what we get days 3-10, but than it looks like the -AO/-NAO start to develop which squashes the ridge in the east.  Curious to see what analogs pop up on that run, has to be a wintery pattern for the MA/NE, close for our area, will see.

[rduwx]

Looking at this some more, the Aleutian Ridge looks to be a permanent feature in the LR which I thought typical argues for a trough in the west, which is what we get days 3-10, but than it looks like the -AO/-NAO start to develop which squashes the ridge in the east.  Curious to see what analogs pop up on that run, has to be a wintery pattern for the MA/NE, close for our area, will see.

 

Oh yeah, you're getting sucked in.  That's the packbacker we know!

[superjames1992]

We'll be looking to fringe our way to climo by riding the edge of the potential foothills/mountain special in the Triad. Three years without climo will be painful. I guess we're still paying for 2009-2010, as is Asheville (they got 40"+, IIRC).

I agree with WeatherHeels. I've been searching for my foot for a decade now. It's time for this Fab February to make it happen. Or will we have to wait until Monster March? Or Amazing April? Marvelous May?...