snowinnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 11:15 PM, Brick Tamland said: OK, this thing needs to start picking up or I am afraid it could end p being a bust. I'm not cliff diving yet but I'm beginning to feel the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So Ga has a state of emergency and they're blaming the traffic on them not being able to clear the roads. Funny thing is this was well predicted for Atl proper so they knew full well it was coming; guess they'll need to get somebody to teach them how to prepare properly. Might be a job there somewhere for an enterprising company.. Gotta laugh at the northerners laughing at us southerners though; although tragic where exactly was that huge pileup the other day? Up north.. Only difference is they have more equipment; they still have stupid drivers. Would like to see them try to go 100 mph around 285 when it's dry like a bunch of the locals do; bet they'd piss their pants.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's snowing, but it si so light. I was looking forward to the big rates over 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 11:53 PM, Brick Tamland said: It's snowing, but it si so light. I was looking forward to the big rates over 10:1. A ratio like 10:1 or 15:1 is how inches of snow to one inch of liquid. It has nothing to do with the size of the flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 11:58 PM, rduwx said: A ratio like 10:1 or 15:1 is how inches of snow to one inch of liquid. It has nothing to do with the size of the flakes. I know that. I guess I thought the flakes would be bigger, though. And it is coming down so light now. I was just saying it has to pick up to get the bigger ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Chill Brick, I think around 9pm it'll be rolling good out there in your neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 12:00 AM, Brick Tamland said: I know that. I guess I thought the flakes would be bigger, though. And it is coming down so light now. I was just saying it has to pick up to get the bigger ratios. We need to be under one of the heavy bands that are to the east of us to start a good accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 11:15 PM, Brick Tamland said: OK, this thing needs to start picking up or I am afraid it could end p being a bust. On 1/28/2014 at 11:46 PM, snowinnc said: I'm not cliff diving yet but I'm beginning to feel the same way. On 1/28/2014 at 11:15 PM, Brick Tamland said: OK, this thing needs to start picking up or I am afraid it could end p being a bust. I'm thinking chance of a bust in the Chapel Hill area is pretty high now. We are just not getting enough moisture to amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 11:39 PM, Brick Tamland said: I wish WxSouth and RaleighEx were around to give an update on if things are going as they expected. They would probably tell you that the heavier precip did not materialize and to enjoy your light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 12:02 AM, rawlee said: Chill Brick, I think around 9pm it'll be rolling good out there in your neck of the woods. I hope so. I am trying to be positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm not sure why we keep thinking that heavy snow is going to fall around 9:00. The radar does not depict any heavy returns upstream to move into the area. In fact, the upstream radar is concerning, although the snow hole in SC might be trying to fill in. There has been some westward expansion of the precip shield, but I haven't seen any evidence of a heavy snow band setting up yet. Maybe one will magically appear later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Radar returns look thin and anything heavy-ish looks to be pushing south and east. I'm officially changing my prediction to dusting for my locality. lol O_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 12:04 AM, Brick Tamland said: I hope so. I am trying to be positive. A pessimist is never disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Maybe the band setting up like Pack described in the obs thread will get the job done. We'll have to see if it intensifies.... Good thing though, I seemed to have evaded the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Maybe we can get a good band or two for a period. Seems like an outside chance though at this point. But you are right, CR, no warm nose and no cold rain this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 12:03 AM, Cold Rain said: They would probably tell you that the heavier precip did not materialize and to enjoy your light snow. That's a big yep, still like where you are at for 3", Chapel Hill and Durham don't have a chance of getting 2", RDU will be close. The 23z RAP was a debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/28/2014 at 11:58 PM, rduwx said: A ratio like 10:1 or 15:1 is how inches of snow to one inch of liquid. It has nothing to do with the size of the flakes. In fact, I've often found that the higher the ratio, the smaller the flakes. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Also, the HRRR looks worse, RDU 2.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I wonder what the mets say. Here in Fay we were looking at 6"+, I don't know if we'll get 2". Sleetinglike hell and 25. I mean come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 12:27 AM, packbacker said: Also, the HRRR looks worse, RDU 2.5". I say if we're only going to get 2.5", we might as well enjoy it. It's been 3 years since we got that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 12:42 AM, rduwx said: I say if we're only going to get 2.5", we might as well enjoy it. It's been 3 years since we got that. Just not sure about 2". RAH just lowered Cary from 3-5 to 2-4". But your right it's only snow, atleast something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 12:27 AM, packbacker said: Also, the HRRR looks worse, RDU 2.5". Screw the HRRR. That model has already blown it's estimates for places that have already received snow/sleet/ice so screw that model. Seriously quit looking at the HRRR. I'd rather you look at the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stepandfetch Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Is there anything coming up behind the end of this band, now knocking on Forsyth County's door? How dissapointing this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 12:19 AM, Jet Stream Rider said: Maybe we can get a good band or two for a period. Seems like an outside chance though at this point. But you are right, CR, no warm nose and no cold rain this time! Yeah, it's nice to not have a marginal temp event...even though it's still a marginal precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This storm sucks butt. I'm 25 miles from home in a seedy hotel for the night with my truck abandoned on I-75. I've got three inches of powder at the house and I doubt I will get to sled with my son for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 12:45 AM, packbacker said: Just not sure about 2". RAH just lowered Cary from 3-5 to 2-4". But your right it's only snow, atleast something to track. That's right...You don't want tomorrow to come and say "damn, I got 2" of snow and I didn't even see it because I was to busy being disappointed about what the HRRR or RAP was showing." Nothing we can do about it so enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 At least the snow hole is closing...for now. The lesson learned is always take the model with the lowest pf and cut it by half and you'll be in the ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Radar filling in better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 On 1/29/2014 at 12:49 AM, EmersonGA said: This storm sucks butt. I'm 25 miles from home in a seedy hotel for the night with my truck abandoned on I-75. I've got three inches of powder at the house and I doubt I will get to sled with my son for the first time. Hopefully it will stick around long enough to get some sledding in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I hate to be a nag but is it ever going to switch over in Fay or are we looking at a huge bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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