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January Banter


Isopycnic

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Office is closing at 2:00 today. I might leave before then if the snow starts earlier.

Stay and work.  Didn't you see this from the Ral NWS discussion?

 

 INTERESTING TO NOTE

THAT SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE

TRIANGLE AREA IS IN A PRECIP FREE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME

MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE RDU VICINITY

UNTIL 21Z-00Z.

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Thanks Allan.  The 14z RAP 850 temps looked very good throughout.  I don't know if there is another level to pay attention to.  I looked at 700 and 925 too, and they looked good as well.

 

Those 925's will look you in the eye and stab you in the back sometimes :)

 

It's funny reading all of the input and questions - they vary so much across the sub-forum.  Our concerns are so different from RDU, etc...

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Those 925's will look you in the eye and stab you in the back sometimes :)

 

It's funny reading all of the input and questions - they vary so much across the sub-forum.  Our concerns are so different from RDU, etc...

 

Ha!  I know what you mean.

 

The trends for you guys are encouraging...with the exception of that last run of the Rap.  I don't take it's QPF seriously, but the trend of it getting wetter is good.  I don't like the drying trend.

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Ha!  I know what you mean.

 

The trends for you guys are encouraging...with the exception of that last run of the Rap.  I don't take it's QPF seriously, but the trend of it getting wetter is good.  I don't like the drying trend.

 

It still looks light years better for us than it did yesterday. For my area, the question is all about how quickly saturation occurs.

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It still looks light years better for us than it did yesterday. For my area, the question is all about how quickly saturation occurs.

 

I'm hearing flurries are already reaching the ground in Kernersville and the dew point depression is almost 20 degrees at the surface there with a huge depression at 850 mb.  We may not get virgad to hell.

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The RAP and the NAM have me jumping with joy with warning-criteria snowfall.

I'm at 20 degrees and a wet bulb of 16. This is going to be fun when it starts snowing. Instant stickage, even during the day with the sun angle! :)

Allan Huffman gives the Triad 2-4"! :snowing:

I'm there with you, buddy. I'm hoping we had enough virga this morning to prepare the column for immediate fun when the real stuff begins later in the afternoon. :)
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I'm there with you, buddy. I'm hoping we had enough virga this morning to prepare the column for immediate fun when the real stuff begins later in the afternoon. :)

 

I notice GSO has went from 20/1 to 19/7 from 10 to 11 AM.  I know there was a pretty dry nose around 850 mb, but it looks like it's moistening up a good bit at the surface, at least.  RH is now up to 59%.

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Stay and work. Didn't you see this from the Ral NWS discussion?

INTERESTING TO NOTE

THAT SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE

TRIANGLE AREA IS IN A PRECIP FREE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME

MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE RDU VICINITY

UNTIL 21Z-00Z.

If it is going to start so much later will it also end later? I wish I shared Brick's positive attitude about Wake County but I'm thinking we might be lucky to get 2 inches at this point. It seems like Wake County is the only area where totals are decreasing instead of the increasing totals to the west of us. Very odd.

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I notice GSO has went from 20/1 to 19/7 from 10 to 11 AM.  I know there was a pretty dry nose around 850 mb, but it looks like it's moistening up a good bit at the surface, at least.  RH is now up to 59%.

 

Its virga city over our heads even though radar is having a hard time. There is better returns over SC so the moisture is getting thicker. Next couple hours the returns will get heavier and light snow will start.

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This thing is going to give the I-85  area in SC a dusting at best I'm afraid. Too much dry air to deal with around here. Best chance of 1 inch or better snow is in the mountains north of hwy 11 and south of 72 in the piedmont.

 

You know, I wanted to post a smarta** comment to this, but...

 

Hell. If you're right, then kudos. You are pretty much alone in that thought right now, so at least you're sticking to it.

 

***EDIT***

 

I find it interesting that a local broadcast Met posted this around the same time you made your call:

 

http://www.wyff4.com/weather/winter-storm-heads-toward-sc/-/9325714/24126384/-/amkhjqz/-/index.html?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=wyff%2Bnews%2B4#mid=18129463

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I alReady hate this storm...

The in law that was flying in from MS to keep my child had her flight cancel, she's on a later flight, but I'm sure that will get cancelled due to conditions here...and no telling about my flight in the AM...but if the aunt doesn't get here, were screwed anyway...

All on top of the fact that Utah is going to get dumped on the next few days...and I'm in jeporday of missing a lot of it due to this pain in the arse SE storm....aargh.

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