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January Banter


Isopycnic

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Thinking about chasing this storm. Looking for some advice on best place. To be based on current models? Looks like somewhere from Fayetteville to Rocky Mount or maybe just east of those locations.

 

I would at least start in Smithfield, NC or Wilson, NC if I'm you. Basically two best spots to go east or west if anything change. Right now, it does look like areas to east or northeast of these two cities are the best locations for most snow but it that could shift toward Raleigh area just as easy.

 

EDIT: Now that I think of it, Wilson might be better option than Smithfield thanks to US 264.

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Thinking about chasing this storm. Looking for some advice on best place. To be based on current models? Looks like somewhere from Fayetteville to Rocky Mount or maybe just east of those locations.

Greenville has plenty of hotels due to ECU etc,  between all the call maps I have seen we look to be 8" on the low end 14" on the high end of the predictions all models have us at or above 1" QPF so we shall see.

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The NW "trend" (if there ever were such a thing, considering one run would jump NW and the next run would jump back SE; that's not a trend to me) is over. If you're not in the QPF as of the 18z NAM, your fun is over.

 

It's not over until the fat lady sings...  We didn't give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor; we're not giving up based on 973 model runs showing no qpf...

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Praying for NO SNOW in Charlotte...sorry folks. I have a flight out at 7:30am Wednesday and if it gets cancelled due to snow ill be so freaking ticked off....hope everyone east gets hammered, just not CLT.

I think I'm going to get the sled out of storage....that should do it.

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The NW "trend" (if there ever were such a thing, considering one run would jump NW and the next run would jump back SE; that's not a trend to me) is over. If you're not in the QPF as of the 18z NAM, your fun is over.

EDIT: this is for folks in the mountains/foothills of NC/VA on the NW fringe of the precip

Considering where the models initially had this storm system, there had to be a NW trend somewhere along the way....

 

Also, Why is the 18Z NAM the end all?

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I guess there will not be a model consensus before the storm.  It seems that they are all over the place.  Most are picking up on the overrunning moisture streaming into the west earlier tomorrow, which is new.  Many trended west and wetter, some have flipped back and forth with pretty wild swings imo.  The western edge is anyone's guess.  Looks like a safe bet would be that the one inch line will be one county to the east and south.  I have a feeling that may not be right, but who knows!  Frustrating because I thought all of the models would fall in line much better than this after yesterday's GFS and SREFs that backed it up.

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I guess there will not be a model consensus before the storm.  It seems that they are all over the place.  Most are picking up on the overrunning moisture streaming into the west earlier tomorrow, which is new.  Many trended west and wetter, some have flipped back and forth with pretty wild swings imo.  The western edge is anyone's guess.  Looks like a safe bet would be that the one inch line will be one county to the east and south.  I have a feeling that may not be right, but who knows!  Frustrating because I thought all of the models would fall in line much better than this after yesterday's GFS and SREFs that backed it up.

Never happens.  We are now beginning step 8 on my chain of storm events.

 

8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens.

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The storm was less than 30 hours out when the NAM put up a different solution on the 12z. The storm will be less than 18 hours out when the 00z puts out a different solution.

Couldn't have said it any better. This storm is one of trickiest I ever remember(I'm young) but it's changed rapidly and often. It's still gonna change.

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Never happens.  We are now beginning step 8 on my chain of storm events.

 

8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens.

It will be a matter nowcasting soon....or looking at the radar...or...better yet out the window

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Couldn't have said it any better. This storm is one of trickiest I ever remember(I'm young) but it's changed rapidly and often. It's still gonna change.

 

Other than Christmas 2010, this storm has to rank up there for most difficult to predict. Just hoping it will show some love to those of us in the northern burbs.

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