btownheel Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This evening is gonna be the big one IMO. Things keep trending a little North and West. When the southern energy actually interacts the models get to see how big this thing is gonna blow. If it scoots JUST a touch faster the 18Z and 0Z maps are gonna be absolutely beautiful for central and Eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I want to see another SOLID move west and get the fence out of my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You mod(s) are seriously ridiculous about the amount of posts you delete. I'm a donating member who's trying to join the conversations. Lighten up a little please. Conversations are for banter....that is the discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Thanks for the thoughts Tracker!! For the mountain areas, I don't think the shift west has anything to do with the QPF projection. Rather, as Robert pointed out, it looks like overrunning precipitation that breaks out far earlier than the NAM and GFS indicate. In fact, if taken at face-value, it would snow lightly all day in the mountains, to the tune of 1-2" as others have pointed out. My concern is the location of the arctic boundary at 1pm EST versus where it was modeled to be. It is running slower, as KAVL still sits in the upper 40s, and even Knoxville is still in the 40s. If the front hangs up a bit longer, it may be a good focus for the better overrunning precipitation. I think the Euro is hinting at this. Stay tuned mountain folks. This could be interesting - and we may not need any NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Also, during storm mode, are IMBY posts allowed in the banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I want to see another SOLID move west and get the fence out of my back yard. 50-60 miles. I'm begging for being solidly in the .5-.75 range. That has an outside shot at 10 inches with ratios....but almost a guaranteed 7-8. You don't need quite as much in Raleigh....but I'm greedy and want it in MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Also, during storm mode, are IMBY posts allowed in the banter thread? Sure they might not get answered though.....but this is the place to do stuff like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's been shifting NW for 48 hours and I'm still on the outside looking in here in MTV on the VA/NC border. New EURO gives me 0.4" of snowfall, probably all virga. Just had to let that out. Congrats, beach bums! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That was nuts. I ditched work once the first icing reports came in and made it home before it got crazy. Hopefully nothing like that this time, besides a bit of snow. It was pretty bad if you had to drive north of the city. My intuition told me to WFH that day and I ignored it because the pro forecasters acted like it wasn't going to be that bad until almost lunchtime that day. By the time the "uh... get out! get out now!" alarm sounded, it was too late for those of us driving northward. I won't do that again. As fate would have it, we've had nothing but rain in winter since then. Can't believe it's been almost 3 winters without snow or ice up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I want to see another SOLID move west and get the fence out of my back yard. Aren't you on the 4" versus 10" fence? I'm on the 0" versus 2" fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sure they might not get answered though.....but this is the place to do stuff like thatThanks, although i don't really plan on IMBY posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I want to see another SOLID move west and get the fence out of my back yard. I think we get it CR. Happy hour for the win! Perhaps another teaser chapter from your up coming Snowmance novel is in order. After all thats what made this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 6 o'clock news weather forecasts look to be more interesting for GSP area! Missed the noon news, but at morning news time, they had flurries to dusting. GSP last update was 1-3 for 85 and south. That was before euro run! It's about to get fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just curious about all this talk about the front running behind schedule today, hanging up in mtns . I just need reassurance that temps won't be a problem !!!!? Currently 63 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Was in Simpsonville this weekend sir. Down seeing Friends off of HWY 14. Good luck hoss. I am about 1 hour and 15 mins NNE of ya. 6 o'clock news weather forecasts look to be more interesting for GSP area! Missed the noon news, but at morning news time, they had flurries to dusting. GSP last update was 1-3 for 85 and south. That was before euro run! It's about to get fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If we go into storm mode basically the Banter thread is where most people who aren't mets end up posting. Even stuff like a model pbp is no longer welcome in the discussion thread at that point, at least in my past experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I want to see another SOLID move west and get the fence out of my back yard. I just want what the models are spitting out, 0.4-0.5" of precip, which would be 4-6". Curious to see what RAH says our ratios maybe. Anything over 3" for me is a great winter event. I sure would not want to be in ILM for this, it could be really bad down there. Of course PGV will be jackpotted, they have been on quite a roll the past 4 years, they jackpotted the boxing day storm too and a few other small ones. Happy for WeatherNC, sure he will love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm under a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I want to see another SOLID move west and get the fence out of my back yard. You? I think you're sitting pretty solidly at half a foot of snow. CLT is dangerously close to a dusting to an inch. Want to get solidly in the .25 inch QPF across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Would love to see some more in house models from local stations. WRAL is going for 2-4" and has us starting about 1pm and ending about 10pm, be nice to see the ground whiten up during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Interesting snow ratio table from NOAA... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Would love to see some more in house models from local stations. WRAL is going for 2-4" and has us starting about 1pm and ending about 10pm, be nice to see the ground whiten up during the day.WRAL is going to shift that, they always do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 When's the next model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The trend has been to tick NW with the precip shield. I think that the shift will hold and the next cycle of runs will trend wetter in the regions seeing precip due to the stronger northern stream energy and the overrunning out ahead of the system. The only exception may be that the areas in the highest precip will stay about the same around 1" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 OMG.....it's all just to much! Someone please pass the whole bottle scotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I just want what the models are spitting out, 0.4-0.5" of precip, which would be 4-6". Curious to see what RAH says our ratios maybe. Anything over 3" for me is a great winter event. I haven't heard a ton of talk concerning ratios today. The column is really that cold, and there is a warm nose which is near 1.5C on forecast soundings. I think a 10:1 is the way to play it conservatively. Still is a solid 3-6" snow across Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WRAL is going to shift that, they always do You know what's funny, if we were on the southern end of the precip totals you know this would shift NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Warnings now up for SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I haven't heard a ton of talk concerning ratios today. The column is really that cold, and there is a warm nose which is near 1.5C on forecast soundings. I think a 10:1 is the way to play it conservatively. Still is a solid 3-6" snow across Wake County. A warm nose, what level? I don't see it on the NAM, is it showing up on Euro/GFS? http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_krdu.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Warnings now up for SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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