strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One must always temper excitement until inside 48 hrs in the south. But now, let the wish casting start... Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Of course the GFS woul trend back east last night after looking so good yesterday. Can't get a decent storm here at all anymore. One day to go and everything is falling apart.At least you still get a decent amount of snow. It's better than going from a potentially historic event to 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm kind of feeling like this this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No doubt. Had some good trends yesterday even the 00 run's from last night looks good. But it is coming in now. Players are starting to be placed on the table where good data is available. Good luck all. I'm kind of feeling like this this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's depressing. Makes me want to go back to the good old pre-internet days of blissful ignorance and not thinking it's going to snow until the man on the evening news starts talking about it. Other than maybe WidreMann, we needed a Greek chorus yesterday to try to pull us back into reality. It was all too good to be true. Yeah... The worst thing is that the local newscasters started talking a little about the snow again, too, with quotes like "it depends on the track" rather than outright saying we were going to be dry, as before. I'll admit I got way too excited after the 18z GFS, but when the 21z SREF swung way west to match it, I really thought we had something. To be fair, we still could possibly get a token snow here, but eith temperatures so cold, it could have more impact than usual. If the east trend continues, we're done, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ^ Haha, yep. Unfortunate that we can't get a consistent favorable trend. The 12z runs are our last hope until the event starts unfolding, at which point, surprises will be possible. I feel lie the 12Zs should have a fairly solid handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No doubt. Had some good trends yesterday even the 00 run's from last night looks good. But it is coming in now. Players are starting to be placed on the table where good data is available. Good luck all. I couldnt buy a NW trend when I need one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm kind of feeling like this this morning... Definite bummer for us and points west but our coastal friends look to still get a very big event. Plan on resuming my ranting about lack of snow on Friday :-). Until then w can cheer on our southern GA, SE NC/SC friends, maybe we can get an 1-2". Have a feeling though that this will be another Dec 2000 where the eastern shift will continue up until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Definite bummer for us and points west but our coastal friends look to still get a very big event. Plan on resuming my ranting about lack of snow on Friday :-). Until then w can cheer on our southern GA, SE NC/SC friends, maybe we can get an 1-2". Have a feeling though that this will be another Dec 2000 where the eastern shift will continue up until game time. Yeah, I mentioned yesterday that 12/2000 was still in the back of my head with this setup. We'll see what happens. I'd be happy with 4-5 inches right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 And no real chance at winter weather on the GFS right through it's run which puts us well into Feb. Time is running out for us this year. At least the rain will be back with the warmer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ehhh...I need the money from my job anyways so I am not too disappointed this is trending in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 While I loved the 18z GFS it was an extreme solution. I blame the 00z GFS for really getting our hopes up. On a positive note the models all winter have under performed once the moisture has made it here. I'm going to make a bold weenie call and for 2 inches in CLT if the models hold the line this morning and do not shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 While I loved the 18z GFS it was an extreme solution. I blame the 00z GFS for really getting our hopes up. On a positive note the models all winter have under performed once the moisture has made it here. I'm going to make a bold weenie call and for 2 inches in CLT if the models hold the line this morning and do not shift east. I think 2-3 here. The 3 would be a slight trend NW. I think the models don't portray the upslope very well over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If you are going for 2", I say .01 out my way to the west of you.. While I loved the 18z GFS it was an extreme solution. I blame the 00z GFS for really getting our hopes up. On a positive note the models all winter have under performed once the moisture has made it here. I'm going to make a bold weenie call and for 2 inches in CLT if the models hold the line this morning and do not shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, the NAM will be here to put another nail in the coffin in less than an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 BMX dropped their Winter Storm Watch for their CWA. I would probably replace them with a WWA though, just to be on the safe side, but that's jmo. Kinda surprised I was expanded into the Winter Storm Warning here, my thinking was I would be thrown into a WWA when I woke up this morning. I still think Atlanta will see at least 1 inch bearing there's no more drastic eastward shifts with the models today. 3z SREF model plume shows a mean of 3.40 inches here, literally sliced in half from that 21z run last night. Most of the members are more evenly spread out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Off to work with the small thought of a miracle happening today. Hard to believe with all the cold we have had in January we are staring a third consecutive year with no snowfall of 1" @ KAVL! Even imby which is better placed for nwfs than the airport nothing @ 3" in the same time span.......gotta love or love to hate winter weather I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WPC still bullish on the totals . http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?ftype=percentiles&fpd=24&ptype=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think Robert's Tweets last night got some of us excited, too, especially that gem about someone between CLT and RDU getting over a foot. To be fair, that could still happen, so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I am disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WPC still bullish on the totals . http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?ftype=percentiles&fpd=24&ptype=snow That's the SREF basically in a user-friendly viewer. The SREF is still being bullish, you would think some members are still seeing a phase because there are a few members with 12"+ totals for RDU. Mean is still above 6", something to hang our hats on there. So essentially the short range GFS (SREF) isn't buying it's daddy. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That's the SREF basically in a user-friendly viewer. The SREF is still being bullish, you would think some members are still seeing a phase because there are a few members with 12"+ totals for RDU. Mean is still above 6", something to hang our hats on there. So essentially the short range GFS (SREF) isn't buying it's daddy. We'll see. Latest SREF should be coming out soon so we'll know if it comes out wetter if some changes are a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Robert keeps some hope alive for us further west! Check out his latest post of FB and his blog for more info... PLEASE let this thing trend west!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 FFC holding serve, in fact increasing totals to the southeast of me. This graphic is from about 2 hrs. ago. Just throwing this out there, I think FFC is somewhat in agreement w/ Robert this morning on how far north the precip could get. I noticed they have parts of far N. GA under a SWS and calling for about 1/2 inch of snow up there. So they're obviously erring on the side of caution and letting it be known the scenario is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Midol anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 BMX dropped their Winter Storm Watch for their CWA. I would probably replace them with a WWA though, just to be on the safe side, but that's jmo. Kinda surprised I was expanded into the Winter Storm Warning here, my thinking was I would be thrown into a WWA when I woke up this morning. I still think Atlanta will see at least 1 inch bearing there's no more drastic eastward shifts with the models today. 3z SREF model plume shows a mean of 3.40 inches here, literally sliced in half from that 21z run last night. Most of the members are more evenly spread out too. I think that might be an error on the website. Their zone forecasts still have the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think Robert's Tweets last night got some of us excited, too, especially that gem about someone between CLT and RDU getting over a foot. To be fair, that could still happen, so we shall see.Unlikely. Seriously, every storm trends NW...except when that would result in central NC getting more than token snow, and then that trend fails. What kind of luck is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think that might be an error on the website. Their zone forecasts still have the watch. Yeah, you're right. I guess when they issued a Wind Advisory it was overlapped on top of the WSW. Sorry for any confusion I may have caused. Unlikely. Seriously, every storm trends NW...except when that would result in central NC getting more than token snow, and then that trend fails. What kind of luck is this? You don't happen to be a shoe salesman do you? They have the worst luck in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Per Robert (wxsouth) on twitter: "Water Vapor tells truth. Main upper low Baja is sending vorts into break-off upper low in Arizona. Will expand precip Tues in South." It sounds like he is going to go WAY out on a limb today! I think all of us SE weenies should go out there and support him! I really hope he is correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You know this is a complex storm unfolding when even Robert is having a hard time figuring out how much will fall. To say the models have what will happen ironed you right now is asking a lot. Fully expect a good bit of waffling around today and the players get sampled more and more. Fun to watch either way, hope someone gets buried in snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.