mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Fox met said dusting to an inch with less the further west you go, so kind of what you said earlier about Traveler's Rest vs. Laurens.Yeah, I miss Andy Wood! I have a feeling local mets will be scrambling in the morning , if model trends continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Really enjoy everybody's input and feedback about models! Roberts last couple of tweets have me pretty excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Really enjoy everybody's input and feedback about models! Roberts last couple of tweets have me pretty excited!Tweets aren't model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You guys are too young to remember, but before they built I85 the snow didn't know where to stop and we all got slammed. CAE upped the total from 1-2" to 2-4" .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE...HAVE INCREASED SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COLD AIR TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. A COMPARISON OF THE FEBRUARY 2010 EVENT...SHOWS SOIL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING 2 TO 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN 2010. EVEN WITH THE WARM DAY TOMORROW..ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANGE IN SOIL TEMPERATURES. DO NOT BELIEVE SOIL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AS THE SLEET/SNOW BEGINS TO FALL. THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET WEST...AND SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EAST. DEEPER COLD AIR FARTHER WEST SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A BRIEF LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM INDICATES SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN QPF. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE RANGE SLIGHTLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-QUARTER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL STRETCH EAST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO IN BURKE COUNTY GEORGIA NORTHEAST THROUGH BARNWELL...ORANGEBURG...SANTEE AND MANNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You guys are too young to remember, but before they built I85 the snow didn't know where to stop and we all got slammed. Good one, old man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like another bust for central NC. Guess I'll have to wait till next winter. I'm tired of the cold anyway.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 lolThis has east of I-95 written all over it. I don't care what the 18z GFS said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good one, old man Thanks. It is funny though when someone, four days before an event, starts complaining because he lives 2 miles south of 85 and the forecast says north of 85. It's like some mystical barrier in some peoples mind. Same with I40, I77 and in Central NC US-64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like another bust for central NC. Guess I'll have to wait till next winter. I'm tired of the cold anyway.Neither is this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 When are people going to start second guessing why the NWS hasnt put them under a Winter Storm Watch? I always loved it when people get upset because they are not under a watch or warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 When are people going to start second guessing why the NWS hasnt put them under a Winter Storm Watch? I always loved it when people get upset because they are not under a watch or warning. My Tuesday night forecast changed from "mostly cloudy" to "cloudy". So things are progressing nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 HEY!!!! You take that back, sir! seriously though... I have gotten almost no studying done this weekend thanks to this stupid winter storm... I hope it's all worth it in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Where did that moisture in alabama and georgia come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Where did that moisture in alabama and georgia come from? Channeling my inner jburns: Clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Channeling my inner jburns: Clouds Weak. Left over tears from the BCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Dr. No about to show how he got that nickname Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Weak. Left over tears from the BCS. Ah, much better. I bow to the sensei. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ah, much better. I bow to the sensei. Gozaimasu. Oyasumi nasai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Excuse me for asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Excuse me for asking. It was just banter. I haven't been up to date for what's going on down there as I've been following the clippers coming through up here in Ohio where I am currently. I beleive it is just an area of weak low pressure tracking along the remants of a front but that's a total guess on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 CAE upped the total from 1-2" to 2-4" .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE...HAVE INCREASED SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COLD AIR TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. A COMPARISON OF THE FEBRUARY 2010 EVENT...SHOWS SOIL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING 2 TO 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN 2010. EVEN WITH THE WARM DAY TOMORROW..ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANGE IN SOIL TEMPERATURES. DO NOT BELIEVE SOIL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AS THE SLEET/SNOW BEGINS TO FALL. THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET WEST...AND SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EAST. DEEPER COLD AIR FARTHER WEST SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A BRIEF LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM INDICATES SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN QPF. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE RANGE SLIGHTLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A WINTRY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE-QUARTER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL STRETCH EAST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO IN BURKE COUNTY GEORGIA NORTHEAST THROUGH BARNWELL...ORANGEBURG...SANTEE AND MANNING. Accuweather up their forecast for CAE to 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00 euro about to be bangin, it's gonna be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think MBY is going to have an all time great virga storm. Looking at simulated radars it should be impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Very disappointed. Turned into an all rain event here. Winter storm watches one County up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How bad was the overnight runs for the coast? I thought our snow chances took a turn for the worse, but our local guy said 1/2-3/4 inch of SNOW accums from CAE to CHS? Wth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Am I really seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Of course the GFS woul trend back east last night after looking so good yesterday. Can't get a decent storm here at all anymore. One day to go and everything is falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like I'm gonna just have to drink the two gallons of milk I bought yesterday , instead of making snow cream! Very dissapointing to wake up to this after yesterday's trends. Only hope is for a last minute N shift or overproducer when the precip blossoms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 18z GFS was cruel and unusual punishment. I don't know how to feel about Pensacola being under a Winter Storm Watch and not being under anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 18z GFS was cruel and unusual punishment. I don't know how to feel about Pensacola being under a Winter Storm Watch and not being under anything here.It's depressing. Makes me want to go back to the good old pre-internet days of blissful ignorance and not thinking it's going to snow until the man on the evening news starts talking about it.Other than maybe WidreMann, we needed a Greek chorus yesterday to try to pull us back into reality. It was all too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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