Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

January Banter


Isopycnic

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Not hugging one model over another, but is it more likely the southwest wave comes out or stays back?

 

Something is ejecting out, may not be the whole piece in time, but some energy gets clipped by the northern branch.  Note how the 0z NAM pops a slp east of SC between 78-84hrs, calling BS on that, which is in response to a late entry.  This was something earlier runs of the GFS did but has since lost.  The southern wave is anchored above 200mb, based on the flow, it is coming east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd say 28-30 degrees. That makes everything super frozen and can even make slush on the roads and skating ranks out of bridges and don't have to worry much about creeping over the 32 degree mark!

I've seen freezing rain with temps as low as 19º.  The worst I was ever in was a prolonged event where the temps hovered around 25 for the entire time.  Nasty.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

so this is where everyone has been hiding and waiting to see what happens lmao.  lookout you are so right....after most of us in ga at least giving up and then having it turn around today so close to the event, if the storm goes poof i can see some major melt downs lol

 

how are we supposed to get any work done tomorrow?  is there a medicine cabinet around with some valium :lol:

 

 

I've seen freezing rain with temps as low as 19º.  The worst I was ever in was a prolonged event where the temps hovered around 25 for the entire time.  Nasty.

 

most of the significant ice storms i have experienced were in the mid 20s as well...everything gets encased in a solid covering of ice

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^ Thanks guys. That makes sense. Hopefully, it comes out...all of it. Either way, the GFS is going to disappoint. No way it could be even close to the 18z, right?

 

I am forced to agree with this - I think the 18z was a fantasy run, something we could see if everything is perfect. I would be very surprised if the upcoming run doesn't take a step back - maybe a major step back. With the sharp cutoff, a lot of folks are going to be left out no matter where it occurs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What temperature is freezing rain the worst at?

A lot depends on just how deep and warm the EWL (elevated warm layer) is. If the ewl is deep and the max temp is high, say 40 or above it really cuts down on the icing because the drops themselves can warm up. However, if the ewl is thin and only barely above freezing, say 33 or 34, a lot will freeze..even if it's just below freezing. Combine a ewl that is just warm and deep enough to melt the snow to rain and throw in 25 degree surface temps, you are talking about a wicked ice storm indeed.

 

Also precip rates factor into it as well. If it's too heavy a lot falls off before freezing. Heavy precip can also tend to "drag" warm air down if it's not far off the surface.

 

So there are a lot of variables. Worst case scenario is a long lasting, light to moderate freezing rain with temps well below freezing and an ewl that is narrow and with a max temp not too far above freezing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...