metalicwx366 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 According to the Iowa State Bufkit Warehouse: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kcsg I get 0.05" of freezing rain. Then 0.3" of sleet. Then pile 2.7" of snow on top... Fun. What temperature is freezing rain the worst at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not hugging one model over another, but is it more likely the southwest wave comes out or stays back? Comes out damnit!! We need it to scoot along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What temperature is freezing rain the worst at?I'd say 28-30 degrees. That makes everything super frozen and can even make slush on the roads and skating ranks out of bridges and don't have to worry much about creeping over the 32 degree mark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not hugging one model over another, but is it more likely the southwest wave comes out or stays back? Something is ejecting out, may not be the whole piece in time, but some energy gets clipped by the northern branch. Note how the 0z NAM pops a slp east of SC between 78-84hrs, calling BS on that, which is in response to a late entry. This was something earlier runs of the GFS did but has since lost. The southern wave is anchored above 200mb, based on the flow, it is coming east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'd say 28-30 degrees. That makes everything super frozen and can even make slush on the roads and skating ranks out of bridges and don't have to worry much about creeping over the 32 degree mark! I've seen freezing rain with temps as low as 19º. The worst I was ever in was a prolonged event where the temps hovered around 25 for the entire time. Nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 so this is where everyone has been hiding and waiting to see what happens lmao. lookout you are so right....after most of us in ga at least giving up and then having it turn around today so close to the event, if the storm goes poof i can see some major melt downs lol how are we supposed to get any work done tomorrow? is there a medicine cabinet around with some valium I've seen freezing rain with temps as low as 19º. The worst I was ever in was a prolonged event where the temps hovered around 25 for the entire time. Nasty. most of the significant ice storms i have experienced were in the mid 20s as well...everything gets encased in a solid covering of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ^ Thanks guys. That makes sense. Hopefully, it comes out...all of it. Either way, the GFS is going to disappoint. No way it could be even close to the 18z, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What everyone else said. Mid 20s are no bueno... Temps near 32 are bad, but mid 20s are worse as darn near everything is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I just want to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Holy sh.. At the 21z SREF !!! It just keeps getting better for us to the west!!! Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ^ Thanks guys. That makes sense. Hopefully, it comes out...all of it. Either way, the GFS is going to disappoint. No way it could be even close to the 18z, right? I am forced to agree with this - I think the 18z was a fantasy run, something we could see if everything is perfect. I would be very surprised if the upcoming run doesn't take a step back - maybe a major step back. With the sharp cutoff, a lot of folks are going to be left out no matter where it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep. Charleston is in the crosshairs. A lot of things could happen here. It's a very fluid situation with the models. The storm moving 50 miles left or right the other way could cause a huge difference in conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What everyone else said. Mid 20s are no bueno... Temps near 32 are bad, but mid 20s are worse as darn near everything is cold. When you don't hear any dripping at all, you're probably screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On a lighter note, I'm just hoping classes get cancelled on Wednesday, I have a calc exam I am not looking forward to taking. HEY!!!! You take that back, sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep. It was a fun afternoon, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We basked in your glory... now we must come down off our high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wonder if JB factored in the economic loss of productivity from weenies getting nothing done whatsoever while awaiting the next suite of model lol. I've been absolutely useless this weekend, and it only goes downhill from here. Late nights, and perhaps a all nighter Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What temperature is freezing rain the worst at? A lot depends on just how deep and warm the EWL (elevated warm layer) is. If the ewl is deep and the max temp is high, say 40 or above it really cuts down on the icing because the drops themselves can warm up. However, if the ewl is thin and only barely above freezing, say 33 or 34, a lot will freeze..even if it's just below freezing. Combine a ewl that is just warm and deep enough to melt the snow to rain and throw in 25 degree surface temps, you are talking about a wicked ice storm indeed. Also precip rates factor into it as well. If it's too heavy a lot falls off before freezing. Heavy precip can also tend to "drag" warm air down if it's not far off the surface. So there are a lot of variables. Worst case scenario is a long lasting, light to moderate freezing rain with temps well below freezing and an ewl that is narrow and with a max temp not too far above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 *looks back from edge of cliff* wait a minute, it went BOOM again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 *looks back from edge of cliff* wait a minuteYeah, looks worse on paper, but outcome is more precip than 18 z sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The writing seems to be on the wall that folks between CLT and RDU can relax a wee bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah, looks worse on paper, but outcome is more precip than 18 z sweet You know I don't care how we get there, I just want to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ok, so it wasn't the 18z, but it wasn't a disaster. I expect to wake up to a WSWatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 So was the 00Z GFS good or bad from the perspective of the RDU area? I'm a little confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The writing seems to be on the wall that folks between CLT and RDU can relax a wee bit. But, Bevo, do we really ever relax in this game we play? You've gotta see the snow falling outside your window, with heavy DBZ returns on radar, before you can even begin to breathe a sigh of relief in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Could someone tell me how my area did? i can't see maps right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well rest of us will have to go chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yikes, I'm right on the line per this run. Still probably 6" of snow, but it's so close to glory or failure. I was afraid 18z might have been too good to be true for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 So was the 00Z GFS good or bad from the perspective of the RDU area? I'm a little confused. It was great for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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