Dunkman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If we could luck out and get .50 precip back here in the foothills we'll squeeze out 10 inches with the ratios LOL it would be in the teens at the surface. Yeah I was thinking that snowfall map in the triad would actually be underdone with those temps. Ratios would be nuts. Just when I had pretty much completely given up on this storm the 18z GFS does that. Of course I don't "believe" it, but it will keep me up watching models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I would think that you could add another couple of inches to the totals in the I-85 corridor in NC due to extremely cold temperatures through the entire vertical column. I haven't been this happy since I ran over that bicyclist on the freeway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I would think that you could add another couple of inches to the totals in the I-85 corridor in NC due to extremely cold temperatures through the entire vertical column. Dividing by 2 would give you a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I would think that you could add another couple of inches to the totals in the I-85 corridor in NC due to extremely cold temperatures through the entire vertical column. Very true.....8-9 on 10:1 ratios is in reality probably more like 13-14 with these temps. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 All the 18z is showing is an imminent weenie meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Dividing by 2 would give you a better idea. Then divide that by 2 and subtract some stuff after that. That GFS solution is a beaut. I just can't believe that is even possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Dividing by 2 would give you a better idea.Yep. I usually divide the qpf by two in these situations to get a more realistic idea. In this case I wanted to mention the high snow ratios. I don't think I will see a 10 inches of snow IMBY based on one gfs run. At least this time we won't have to wait for rain to change to snow or worry about losing snow accumulation due to melting. Looks like we might have lots of Virga before the snow starts reaching the ground... Burns, are you still going with less than 4 inches at all cities in my contest thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Then divide that by 2 and subtract some stuff after that. That GFS solution is a beaut. I just can't believe that is even possible. It sure is purty Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I really have a hard time believing in a shift as advertised by the 18Z. This has been so confined to the coast - I mean dialed in - I just don't by THAT much of a NW trend. It will shift some, but the 18Z was a relocation. Cause and effect, this would be similar to what happens if the two parcels phase, maybe not as crazy, but pretty close. Verbatim a lot of plinkers for areas east of 95, just looked at the nonogram, would be one hell of an IP event for Lumberton down 95 into SC, ZR closer to the coast. If anything, this run trended towards the 12z ens mean. Have to wait till the 18z mean comes out to see if it is an outlier, would venture to say not, just goes to show many that the situation is still pretty fluid with what gets involved and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yep. I usually divide the qpf by two in these situations to get a more realistic idea. In this case I wanted to mention the high snow ratios. I don't think I will see a 10 inches of snow IMBY based of this gfs run. At least this time we won't have to wait for rain to change to snow or worry about loosing snow accumulation due to melting. Looks like we might have lots of Virga before the snow starts reaching the ground... Burns, are you still going with less than 4 inches at all cities in my contest thread? I guess I am. It's what I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It sure is purty Pa. It shore is. And somebody just posted a list of every county in the SE in the storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It shore is. And somebody just posted a list of every county in the SE in the storm thread. Your PII is off the charts. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It shore is. And somebody just posted a list of every county in the SE in the storm thread. Did someone let wilkes out of his padded room??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It shore is. And somebody just posted a list of every county in the SE in the storm thread. I saw that. Thankfully, it's gone now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 My gawd people....if you see your stuff being deleted, don't post it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Over 200 browsing the forum at the moment. Watch it go up.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 My gawd people....if you see your stuff being deleted, don't post it again You're stressed. Need some help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Over 200 browsing the forum at the moment. Watch it go up.lol Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Your PII is off the charts. Lol Watch what happens if the 0Zs come in wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Indeed You should announce a, Regional Storm Mode and act accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 You're stressed. Need some help? You need access to the delete button too.....along with the rest of the super secret ninja's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Dividing by 2 would give you a better idea.How about multiplying by 1/2 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Watch what happens if the 0Zs come in wet. Server will be overloaded. And SQL errors will be plentiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I have temps in the 80s next weekend. So while we are out of power for weeks, at least it won't be cold. Wow ...talk about a turn around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I have temps in the 80s next weekend. So while we are out of power for weeks, at least it won't be cold. I think you've got a much better chance at seeing a little white than getting to 80 next wknd. We (more like me) just need that front to sag 70 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I would never want to be a mod... the weenies like me will drive you nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 How about multiplying by 1/2 ? No!! They made me learn long division and by God I'm gonna use it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS says: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I would never want to be a mod... the weenies like me will drive you nuts Not for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Server will be overloaded. And SQL errors will be plentiful!Yep. Hopefully, somebody is making preparations!One another note, where is brickbot? Edit: ok, right on queue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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