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January Banter


Isopycnic

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If we could luck out and get .50 precip back here in the foothills we'll squeeze out 10 inches with the ratios LOL it would be in the teens at the surface.

Yeah I was thinking that snowfall map in the triad would actually be underdone with those temps.  Ratios would be nuts.

 

Just when I had pretty much completely given up on this storm the 18z GFS does that.  Of course I don't "believe" it, but it will keep me up watching models now.  

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Dividing by 2 would give you a better idea.

Yep. I usually divide the qpf by two in these situations to get a more realistic idea. In this case I wanted to mention the high snow ratios. I don't think I will see a 10 inches of snow IMBY based on one gfs run. At least this time we won't have to wait for rain to change to snow or worry about losing snow accumulation due to melting. Looks like we might have lots of Virga before the snow starts reaching the ground...

Burns, are you still going with less than 4 inches at all cities in my contest thread?

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I really have a hard time believing in a shift as advertised by the 18Z. This has been so confined to the coast - I mean dialed in - I just don't by THAT much of a NW trend.

 

It will shift some, but the 18Z was a relocation.

 

Cause and effect, this would be similar to what happens if the two parcels phase, maybe not as crazy, but pretty close.  Verbatim a lot of plinkers for areas east of 95, just looked at the nonogram, would be one hell of an IP event for Lumberton down 95 into SC, ZR closer to the coast.  If anything, this run trended towards the 12z ens mean.  Have to wait till the 18z mean comes out to see if it is an outlier, would venture to say not, just goes to show many that the situation is still pretty fluid with what gets involved and where.

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Yep. I usually divide the qpf by two in these situations to get a more realistic idea. In this case I wanted to mention the high snow ratios. I don't think I will see a 10 inches of snow IMBY based of this gfs run. At least this time we won't have to wait for rain to change to snow or worry about loosing snow accumulation due to melting. Looks like we might have lots of Virga before the snow starts reaching the ground...

Burns, are you still going with less than 4 inches at all cities in my contest thread?

I guess I am. It's what I posted.

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