wncsnow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It sucks you guys missed out on 2/19/2012, 1/17/2013, 2/16/2013, and the small event the other day. I'm pretty sure you guys got hit on 1/25/2013, but that was sleet and freezing rain, not snow. Yea, we have been shafted in soo many ways since January 2011. There have been at least 3 winter storm or ice storm warnings that didn't come close to verifying, in fact we didn't even get a dusting, including 1/17/2013. Also living here you can view the Blue ridge in the distance being pummeled from NWFS while its partly cloudy and breezy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well at least the gfs became a little more interesting. That's the thing here with winter storms, if the gfs doesn't show it, odds are the nws will pretty much ignore it or seriously downplay it (local mets too) even if there is a strong signal on the euro or something. So just for the sake of discussion via the nws, it's good the gfs has trended in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Metal69 How many people can you have at your house? If things stay this way, we may have to chase to Waycross!? Well I'm the only one in my house. 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, so I guess 60. 20 per bedroom? Sounds good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Seconded! EURO ROLL CALL 1. Disc 2. Jon 3. Burger? I can't do it bro, so you guys will have to bring it home. I can't imagine it won't take a baby step or a regular step in the right direction, since everything else did. But I also can't imagine it will show anything to get excited about outside of coastal areas. Trends, I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This guy has been honking this horn for days now, I guess in hopes that someone will acknowledge him as "knowledgeable" or something. And like I said earlier (to which he has yet to reply with any useful information) those "warm ups" have been fails all winter. He isn't going out on a limb with his "call" - he's only posting these same statements over and over. What crap. Yeah...I can kinda somewhat understand being negative about cold and snow around here. If you negative and you're right, you feel good that you were right and somewhat mitigate disappointment. Unfortunately, from a scientific standpoint, that don't mean a hill of beans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Alright I'm in for the Euro PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Can someone please explain or point me to a link that explain the ensembles? And by that I mean, what makes them different from the OP runs? I've heard that the different members represent slight tweaks, but I don't know what tweaks those are, or if that's even true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I can't do it bro, so you guys will have to bring it home. I can't imagine it won't take a baby step or a regular step in the right direction, since everything else did. But I also can't imagine it will show anything to get excited about outside of coastal areas. Trends, I guess.... CR you disappoint me old friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Crossthread just cranked out one of the longest posts ever. Well done, sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 crossthread...100% agree and GREAT post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 CR you disappoint me old friend. I'm just trying out the cynical viewpoint I was describing to Bevo. It worked with my prediction of the 0z GFS....a little bit anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I can't do it bro, so you guys will have to bring it home. I can't imagine it won't take a huge step in the right direction, since everything else did. I have a feeling it's going to show a triple-phase bomb that slams everyone from Wilmington to Knoxville to Birmingham with a foot of snow. Just a hunch. FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Can someone please explain or point me to a link that explain the ensembles? And by that I mean, what makes them different from the OP runs? I've heard that the different members represent slight tweaks, but I don't know what tweaks those are, or if that's even true. So here is how I think of it. The models take what is happening now and compute 1,000 different scenarios. It then looks at those 1,000 scenarios and sees how many look a like. It then takes one run that looks closest to those that look a like and you get your operational run. The ensembles take all those runs and lets you view them. The ENS Mean is an average of all the runs. Someone else can probably explain it better than I can though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm just trying out the cynical viewpoint I was describing to Bevo. It worked with my prediction of the 0z GFS....a little bit anyway. I think you've been hanging out with packbacker too much. Bad association tsk tsk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Sorry.. But I don't want this to trend too far north and west to give the foothills & Piedmont snow.. I want it all over the southern half of GA/AL/MS and the coastal areas of the Carolinas. Ya'll get more snow than the rest of us anyway... Quit trying to take this one. haha! seconded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Also I refuse to get suckered in about how I'm supposed to feel guilty for the coast getting rain vs. me getting snow. Hey if you guys get snow awesome I will not hold it against you or sit there and complain and I'll be happy to watch models and give my opinions. However in 2010 in NC anyways the coast and eastern NC got more snow than I did. I still hold that grudge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 So here is how I think of it. The models take what is happening now and compute 1,000 different scenarios. It then looks at those 1,000 scenarios and sees how many look a like. It then takes one run that looks closest to those that look a like and you get your operational run. The ensembles take all those runs and lets you view them. The ENS Mean is an average of all the runs. Someone else can probably explain it better than I can though.This is not correct. The OP models just do a single forecast. They don't average the different scenarios. The ensembles have multiple different scenarios, but they are set up in a special way to do a better job of quantifying uncertainty and potentially capturing the correct initial state of the atmosphere. See the wiki article for more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 seconded...I haven't gotten **** this winter, and I have an average snowfall greater than 1", so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This is not correct. The OP models just do a single forecast. They don't average the different scenarios. The ensembles have multiple different scenarios, but they are set up in a special way to do a better job of quantifying uncertainty and potentially capturing the correct initial state of the atmosphere. See the wiki article for more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting. There you go. Someone who can explain it better than I can lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This is not correct. The OP models just do a single forecast. They don't average the different scenarios. The ensembles have multiple different scenarios, but they are set up in a special way to do a better job of quantifying uncertainty and potentially capturing the correct initial state of the atmosphere. See the wiki article for more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting. Guess I could've Googled it...oops. Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I hope this will trend further west or I am on the outside looking in. Reminds me of Dec 1989 when if was to cold to snow in the piedmont. Great storm for the coast but it hurt. Only saw a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 FYP. Haha! Now if that turns out right, I'm going to delete my original. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think you've been hanging out with packbacker too much. Bad association tsk tsk. One of the best pix ever! Pack will be fine after he gets his 12+ with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Crossthread just cranked out one of the longest posts ever. Well done, sir! Coldr Crossthread just cranked out one of the longest posts ever. Well done, sir! it's 45mins shot down I-40 to here, If it starts looking 89'ish, come on down, I've got room here.. If you want to chase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Guess I could've Googled it...oops. Thanks guys! To go even further, you might hear someone mention the control run...a lot of people don't trust the control, as apparently it has bad verification scores, but it's just the operational (deterministic) run again at a lower resolution, hence why they call it a control. That also might be why it doesn't have good scores, think about it...it's a lower resolution version of the euro. Anyway...THEN the control is ran 50 more times with tweaked different initial conditions to get the 50 ensemble members. The operational is not repeated, the control is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well I'm the only one in my house. 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, so I guess 60. 20 per bedroom? Sounds good?That would be awesome! The one concern would be the 60:1 bathroom ratio. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Have a feeling the euro's gonna show a big dog tonight. At least for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That would be awesome! The one concern would be the 60:1 bathroom ratio. :/ :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Also I refuse to get suckered in about how I'm supposed to feel guilty for the coast getting rain vs. me getting snow. Hey if you guys get snow awesome I will not hold it against you or sit there and complain and I'll be happy to watch models and give my opinions. However in 2010 in NC anyways the coast and eastern NC got more snow than I did. I still hold that grudge. I wasn't trying to sucker in or make anyone feel guilty.... Hence all the silly smileys. Just thought it was funny how everyone wanted it more west, west, west so I commented on it. I have no ill will towards anyone on here, nor will I. Here's hoping for a bit of snow and not too much ice for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I wasn't trying to sucker in or make anyone feel guilty.... Hence all the silly smileys. Just thought it was funny how everyone wanted it more west, west, west so I commented on it. I have no ill will towards anyone on here, nor will I. Here's hoping for a bit of snow and not too much ice for everyone! Def. was not directed towards you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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