metalicwx366 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I watched Billy Ball and looked at models all at the same time. At least one of those was worthwhile ....Did you miss out on the light rain and sleet event last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Damn... Ive wasted about an entire Saturday looking at these damn models with nothing to come of it. Its times like this I wish I was more like a normal person that doesn't give a #@%& about the weather. LOL It can suck you in when a potential winter storm is on the horizon. I stepped away for a few hours (about to head out for a bite to eat shortly). I'll probably be checking back in later this evening. Enjoy your evening (away from the computer and models, lol)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Weenie here... I've seen ensembles over the years show snow right up to the event while the op be dry and the op ends up being right. I'm not saying the operation runs won't change tomorrow or Monday but imo the writing is on the wall. I sure hope I'm wrong because crow tastes good when it's snowing outside. If it does snow I'm heading to your house to get some sledding in! I'd be happy to have you. While it may be true that ensembles still show snow and the op is dry and it's correct in some cases, the fact that RDU euro ensembles still have multiple members (5-6) spitting out 8-9"+ snow is a tell tale sign that they're still seeing a more western solution with this storm. NOT foothills western, but not extremely off the coast either. Put it this way, if the ensembles still had an average of 2" for RDU but had no members above 2", I'd be worried because that would be a trend downward in the individual members and showing a more eastern solution like the OP. The fact that we're inside 100 hours and the ensembles still show us getting pummeled and the OP is dry is ridiculous to me, and I'll side with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'd be happy to have you. While it may be true that ensembles still show snow and the op is dry and it's correct in some cases, the fact that RDU euro ensembles still have multiple members (5-6) spitting out 8-9"+ snow is a tell tale sign that they're still seeing a more western solution with this storm. NOT foothills western, but not extremely off the coast either. Put it this way, if the ensembles still had an average of 2" for RDU but had no members above 2", I'd be worried because that would be a trend downward in the individual members and showing a more eastern solution like the OP. The fact that we're inside 100 hours and the ensembles still show us getting pummeled and the OP is dry is ridiculous to me, and I'll side with the ensembles. Only thing I am holding onto is this past system on Tuesday that northern stream energy kept digging further south with each model run once we were inside 48 hours, that's wish casting, but we need to get lucky here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Only thing I am holding onto is this past system on Tuesday that northern stream energy kept digging further south with each model run once we were inside 48 hours, that's wish casting, but we need to get lucky here. That's true . We didn't think that would come south but it did. Fat lady is still in the dressing room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL It can suck you in when a potential winter storm is on the horizon. I stepped away for a few hours (about to head out for a bite to eat shortly). I'll probably be checking back in later this evening. Enjoy your evening (away from the computer and models, lol)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Only thing I am holding onto is this past system on Tuesday that northern stream energy kept digging further south with each model run once we were inside 48 hours, that's wish casting, but we need to get lucky here. Do you think the kicker has anything to do with that? I've been looking at that and it hasn't been consistent with each run of the GFS, it comes weaker or stronger with various northern stream energy positions. Same with the Euro. I mean it's a difference between a 5 contour kicker vs a 1 contour kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not sweating anything just yet... I think tomorrow will be D-Day, once the players get sampled In the meantime, drink up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Did you miss out on the light rain and sleet event last night? I felt 3 or 4 pellets and saw 2 flakes at 12:30 AM taking the garbage out. Nothing to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I felt 3 or 4 pellets and saw 2 flakes at 12:30 AM taking the garbage out. Nothing to write home about. Come on. We never see events! You should have been excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Do you think the kicker has anything to do with that? I've been looking at that and it hasn't been consistent with each run of the GFS, it comes weaker or stronger with various northern stream energy positions. Same with the Euro. I mean it's a difference between a 5 contour kicker vs a 1 contour kicker. Good question, nobody has mentioned that, atleast not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Come on. We never see events! You should have been excited. I lived in South Bend, Indiana for 7 years - want snow? Otherwise, lived here all my life; saw more jogging at noon last December (2012) than last night .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I lived in South Bend, Indiana for 7 years - want snow? Otherwise, lived here all my life; saw more jogging at noon last December (2012) than last night .... Well that explains why. You are from South Bend! I'm from the North as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well that explains why. You are from South Bend! I'm from the North as well.North Waycross , how exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I love the calmness in between model runs, so refreshingly crisp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I love the calmness in between model runs, so refreshingly crisp. I was thinking the same thing as I was catching up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well that explains why. You are from South Bend! I'm from the North as well. No - not from South Bend, From Jax FL; I lived in South Bend for 7 years (school) but no one knew how to say "y'all" (nor try as I might could I teach them) so I got smart, packed my bags, and came home to quail hunt. Sherman in reverse .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 North Waycross , how exciting!lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ruh roh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ruh roh... p003.JPG It's beautiiiiful!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ruh roh... p003.JPG Tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 WRAL showing ensembles to the mere mortals! Tisk tisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ruh roh... p003.JPG What was this from? If nothing else some of the clown maps on the members from various models have been fun to wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hahaha. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HttF5HVYtlQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hahaha.I don't know why they show those maps when they know there is a 10% chance of that happening and sending the public into a bread-hunting free for all!? Seems like when there is a real chance, you can't get them to mention it until the day before. I know my area has a 5% chance at best of seeing any snow, but it's not a 0 chance. My local mets didnt even say the "s" word! Not about here, Columbia or the beaches. I think if I lived in Florence area, I would be excited! Even Cola I think has a 50/50 chance at snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18min till 0z runs start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This is what I showed during the 7PM here in Columbus: https://twitter.com/WXReese/status/427243171504852992/photo/1 I explained that all (snow/sleet/freezing rain) are all possible. I think it's much better than trying to show ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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