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January Banter


Isopycnic

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There I go...Burger you said to hug the Euro, well now we have the Euro following the GFS, tough to feel positive about that. Will wait till 12z runs tomorrow to completely give up, but t am warming up my jumping legs.

 

You lost all credibility when you said Ji might be right  :lmao: . I'm still expecting you to eat your shorts. The Euro is going to lose the storm and then come back. Let's see what 12z NAM and GFS say today. 6z GFS was back to a closer solution. Also of note if you look at 12z, 18z, 00z, and now the 6z of the GFS each one pushes that big vort out in the SW further and further east. Almost like it's trying to figure out where to go with it and is slowly figuring it out. Could be totally wrong but I got a good feeling about this one in the end.  :snowing:

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You lost all credibility when you said Ji might be right  :lmao: . I'm still expecting you to eat your shorts. The Euro is going to lose the storm and then come back. Let's see what 12z NAM and GFS say today. 6z GFS was back to a closer solution. Also of note if you look at 12z, 18z, 00z, and now the 6z of the GFS each one pushes that big vort out in the SW further and further east. Almost like it's trying to figure out where to go with it and is slowly figuring it out. Could be totally wrong but I got a good feeling about this one in the end.  :snowing:[/quote

Sounds good, lead us to the promised land :-)

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I was reading back through that and found this quote by Robert that would still apply today for our situation . Looking at the 06Z NAM, that's EXACTLY what it's doing.

 

"12Z NAM at 48 is further south in California. My premise is that if the shortwave breaks off the Main West coast trough at a southerly location like southern CAL, then its better for us in the east."

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Sampled energy is key. Hard not to look at the NAM though and not get a little excited. This run of models reminds me a lot of the Christmas storm roller coaster. 

 

Being right between I-95 and highway 17 here in east central NC is a good spot to be when a big coastal forms but it is always nerve racking when you are just waiting to see the west trend commence knowing it will kill your chances. So thats where I sit right now....hopefully optimistic that we see a big one and knowing that theres always something that usually goes wrong for us this far east.

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48 hr rule man. The past a few years have worked to harden this rule for me. Before that, all in and pissed with every model run.

 

 

You lost all credibility when you said Ji might be right  :lmao: . I'm still expecting you to eat your shorts. The Euro is going to lose the storm and then come back. Let's see what 12z NAM and GFS say today. 6z GFS was back to a closer solution. Also of note if you look at 12z, 18z, 00z, and now the 6z of the GFS each one pushes that big vort out in the SW further and further east. Almost like it's trying to figure out where to go with it and is slowly figuring it out. Could be totally wrong but I got a good feeling about this one in the end.  :snowing:

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There are currently 30 pages in the storm thread. I'm going to bed. When I get up in the morning, I will know if the overnight runs were decent if there are at least 35 pages. Let's do this.

Ok, there are exactly 35 pages, which was my target. Well done, folks. Let's see how my prediction went...

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Disgusting. Lol I bet you are disappointed while reading currently. Then your mood will get happier as you approach this mornings post.

Haha! That's exactly what happened. 5 new pages means good but not great. It means one, maybe two models get analyzed to death and the rest of the commentary is complaining, denying, or discussing alternative solutions. 7-10 new pages means more models are showing a hit and less disappointment. More than 10 new pages and it's "Prepare For Glory"!

That's how you know. The fact that we have the CMC and 84 hour NAM in our pocket is NOT where you want to be. We need to start seeing some trends in the Euro soon.

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This is classic winter frustration. Nam against, I don't know, maybe, every other major global model? Still giving false hope to the weenies!

 

And, the NAM has a great chance of being correct according to what it's seeing that the globals are missing.  Did you not read above from the past Christmas storm, from Robert's Facebook page and tweets?

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