buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Euro meltdown in 3... 2... 1... I still have that Midol handy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This crap is getting old. The GFS looked goofy as heck the last run, yet it might be right. The pattern can be great, but we still can't get anything to show for it. It doesn't matter, for some reason we can't get a good storm no matter how good the setup is. Tired of this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 RIP Southeast board. Hopefully the ensembles show something different overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Next week is just going to be miserable with that cold and no snow. What a waste. All we are getting out of yet another failed winter is a higher power bill. Bring on spring fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm retiring from weather model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm retiring from weather model watching. I feel like I just watched my favorite sports team lose in a blowout in the playoffs. So is the south east though. On to the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Cliff watch 2014!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Cliff watch 2014!!! There I go...Burger you said to hug the Euro, well now we have the Euro following the GFS, tough to feel positive about that. Will wait till 12z runs tomorrow to completely give up, but t am warming up my jumping legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 There I go...Burger you said to hug the Euro, well now we have the Euro following the GFS, tough to feel positive about that. Will wait till 12z runs tomorrow to completely give up, but t am warming up my jumping legs. You lost all credibility when you said Ji might be right . I'm still expecting you to eat your shorts. The Euro is going to lose the storm and then come back. Let's see what 12z NAM and GFS say today. 6z GFS was back to a closer solution. Also of note if you look at 12z, 18z, 00z, and now the 6z of the GFS each one pushes that big vort out in the SW further and further east. Almost like it's trying to figure out where to go with it and is slowly figuring it out. Could be totally wrong but I got a good feeling about this one in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Always fun reading material. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/4066-christmas-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm with you Jonathan, the next 2-3 runs will begin to shows us what's on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm with you Jonathan, the next 2-3 runs will begin to shows us what's on the table Sampled energy is key. Hard not to look at the NAM though and not get a little excited. This run of models reminds me a lot of the Christmas storm roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You lost all credibility when you said Ji might be right . I'm still expecting you to eat your shorts. The Euro is going to lose the storm and then come back. Let's see what 12z NAM and GFS say today. 6z GFS was back to a closer solution. Also of note if you look at 12z, 18z, 00z, and now the 6z of the GFS each one pushes that big vort out in the SW further and further east. Almost like it's trying to figure out where to go with it and is slowly figuring it out. Could be totally wrong but I got a good feeling about this one in the end. [/quoteSounds good, lead us to the promised land :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Always fun reading material. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/4066-christmas-storm/ I was reading back through that and found this quote by Robert that would still apply today for our situation . Looking at the 06Z NAM, that's EXACTLY what it's doing. "12Z NAM at 48 is further south in California. My premise is that if the shortwave breaks off the Main West coast trough at a southerly location like southern CAL, then its better for us in the east." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I don't know that I can ever remember the remnants of a one inch snowfall remaining visible on the ground going into day 3. Heck, usually our rare 5-6" snows are completely gone in that timespan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Sampled energy is key. Hard not to look at the NAM though and not get a little excited. This run of models reminds me a lot of the Christmas storm roller coaster. Being right between I-95 and highway 17 here in east central NC is a good spot to be when a big coastal forms but it is always nerve racking when you are just waiting to see the west trend commence knowing it will kill your chances. So thats where I sit right now....hopefully optimistic that we see a big one and knowing that theres always something that usually goes wrong for us this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 48 hr rule man. The past a few years have worked to harden this rule for me. Before that, all in and pissed with every model run. You lost all credibility when you said Ji might be right . I'm still expecting you to eat your shorts. The Euro is going to lose the storm and then come back. Let's see what 12z NAM and GFS say today. 6z GFS was back to a closer solution. Also of note if you look at 12z, 18z, 00z, and now the 6z of the GFS each one pushes that big vort out in the SW further and further east. Almost like it's trying to figure out where to go with it and is slowly figuring it out. Could be totally wrong but I got a good feeling about this one in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 There are currently 30 pages in the storm thread. I'm going to bed. When I get up in the morning, I will know if the overnight runs were decent if there are at least 35 pages. Let's do this. Ok, there are exactly 35 pages, which was my target. Well done, folks. Let's see how my prediction went... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ok, there are exactly 35 pages, which was my target. Well done, folks. Let's see how my prediction went...it depends which model you hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This is classic winter frustration. Nam against, I don't know, maybe, every other major global model? Still giving false hope to the weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ok, there are exactly 35 pages, which was my target. Well done, folks. Let's see how my prediction went...Disgusting. Lol I bet you are disappointed while reading currently. Then your mood will get happier as you approach this mornings post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I dunno man. I did not see much model hugging, other than some sweet NAM love this morning it depends which model you hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Disgusting. Lol I bet you are disappointed while reading currently. Then your mood will get happier as you approach this mornings post. Haha! That's exactly what happened. 5 new pages means good but not great. It means one, maybe two models get analyzed to death and the rest of the commentary is complaining, denying, or discussing alternative solutions. 7-10 new pages means more models are showing a hit and less disappointment. More than 10 new pages and it's "Prepare For Glory"! That's how you know. The fact that we have the CMC and 84 hour NAM in our pocket is NOT where you want to be. We need to start seeing some trends in the Euro soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This is classic winter frustration. Nam against, I don't know, maybe, every other major global model? Still giving false hope to the weenies! And, the NAM has a great chance of being correct according to what it's seeing that the globals are missing. Did you not read above from the past Christmas storm, from Robert's Facebook page and tweets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Local forecasters here only give us a 2 out of 10 chance of any snow Wednesday here in Charleston SC. They are going with the lastest EURO run I guess. It keeps the bulk of precipitation off shore. So close..yet so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 When can we go into storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 When can we go into storm mode I'm already in storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just got nam'ed! I hope we are freaking out in a great way on Monday and Tuesday when it shows 2" of precip for most of the SE crew! I've always wanted one of those storms like the one last week or the 2 foot storms the MA crew saw a few years back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Disappointing that its snowing 5000 feet plus over my head. But I sure will take a good helping of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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