jburns Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 10:12 PM, frazdaddy said: Ok thats It...Burns meet me on 77 we're going to the farm I wish we were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Winter is over guys, GFS has locked into a much warmer/death ridge in the long range....right guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Long Range should be labeled different: Fantasy outlook or Not going to happen but go ahead give it a shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:25 PM, Pilotwx said: Long Range should be labeled different: Fantasy outlook or Not going to happen but go ahead give it a shot!This is why we don't look at the GFS past 120. I keep saying not to do it, but people keep doing it, and then end up disappointed when, invariably, reality does not match long-range model predictions (outside of broad trends). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:03 PM, metalicwx366 said: Should I create the thread or nah?Might as well make one for the March 2nd storm. Chances are, there'll be something on that day and, chances are, it won't be in the form of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:32 PM, WidreMann said: This is why we don't look at the GFS past 120. I keep saying not to do it, but people keep doing it, and then end up disappointed when, invariably, reality does not match long-range model predictions (outside of broad trends). You look too. You know you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:36 PM, Cold Rain said: You look too. You know you do. I look at the LR Euro, but only because the site I look at (meteocentre) has all the days on one big panel. I never look at LR GFS unless someone posts images here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:32 PM, WidreMann said: This is why we don't look at the GFS past 120. I keep saying not to do it, but people keep doing it, and then end up disappointed when, invariably, reality does not match long-range model predictions (outside of broad trends). NC ONCE AGAIN BURIED UNDER SEVERAL FEET OF DAY 10 SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:41 PM, jburns said: NC ONCE AGAIN BURIED UNDER SEVERAL FEET OF DAY 10 SNOWI wonder how much snow RDU gets if you just look at the 10 day GFS. GaWx, want to do a study for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 haha I posted that image purely for comedy...quit policing the banter thread Widre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:39 PM, WidreMann said: I look at the LR Euro, but only because the site I look at (meteocentre) has all the days on one big panel. I never look at LR GFS unless someone posts images here. "The Dark Lord" looks through his glass prophecy ball thingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:54 PM, Jon said: haha I posted that image purely for comedy...quit policing the banter thread WidreWOOP WOOP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:56 PM, Bevo said: "The Dark Lord" looks through his glass prophecy ball thingy The Palantir? I wish I had one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 9:55 PM, superjames1992 said: On tap for tomorrow: The 12z GFS comes in bone dry, but the 12z NAM leaves hope alive with 0.1" of QPF. Meanwhile, the 15z RAP, after being dry in previous runs, comes in with a death band that sweeps across NC during the late afternoon and evening with 6-8" of snow. The crowd goes wild. The 16z RAP drops totals to 4-6" and by 17z, the RAP is down to flurries. Meanwhile, the 18z NAM has an initialization error and spits out 2-4" of snow across central NC. NCEP announces the error, but some of us cling to it, anyways. In the meantime, daylight seeps away and a stray 10-mile wide snow band sweeps across the area, whitening up elevated surfaces while DCA records 10" of snow. However, Ji still complains that his area only got 8" of snow while Winchester got jackpotted with 18-22". Here's the RAP to get things started. Look at the energy! It's stronger and digging further south and west than all of the other guidance. I know that James is going to watch the RAP roll out hour-after-hour tonight! Keep us updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:57 PM, WidreMann said: The Palantir? I wish I had one... Well, sure..if you're that Dark Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 12:03 AM, Bevo said: Well, sure..if you're that Dark Lord.I was, but some short, hairy-footed twits took it all away, and now I'm just bitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 12:06 AM, WidreMann said: I was, but some short, hairy-footed twits took it all away, and now I'm just bitter. You might actually appreciate a comic I did a few weeks ago. Or you might hate it. http://anothercomicstrip.com/another-comic-strip-28/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I am so sick of the fantasy 10+ day storms. I mean... GFS... EURO... CMC... stop it already... Stop the madness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:41 PM, jburns said: NC ONCE AGAIN BURIED UNDER SEVERAL FEET OF DAY 10 SNOW If you do a blend on the Euro/GFS and its fantasy storms since November well hell I'd be one happy camper. If the fantasies were right... then I'd have about 10 feet total for the season and a 5 foot glacier in the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 12:34 AM, HWY316wx said: I am so sick of the fantasy 10+ day storms. I mean... GFS... EURO... CMC... stop it already... Stop the madness! At least this year there are fantasy storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What is a flizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 11:33 PM, WidreMann said: Might as well make one for the March 2nd storm. Chances are, there'll be something on that day and, chances are, it won't be in the form of snow.Severe Weather Outbreak!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 A couple more of these winters and I'm just going to be sitting in the corner in a fetal position rocking back and forth. Maybe eating a snow cone and mumbling "my flizzard, where's the precious?!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 1:25 AM, JoshM said: A couple more of these winters and I'm just going to be sitting in the corner in a fetal position rocking back and forth. Maybe eating a snow cone and mumbling "my flizzard, where's the precious?!" I didn't know you were retired too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 1:17 AM, metalicwx366 said: What is a flizzard?It's more than flurries, less than light snow - duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 12:34 AM, HWY316wx said: I am so sick of the fantasy 10+ day storms. I mean... GFS... EURO... CMC... stop it already... Stop the madness! Remember when everyone complained that we couldn't even get a fantasy storm to show up on any model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 1:35 AM, Jon said: Remember when everyone complained that we couldn't even get a fantasy storm to show up on any model?Baby steps. But you have to eventually get somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 1:27 AM, jburns said: I didn't know you were retired too. I still have a few marbles rolling around... but with winters like these, I have less hair and marbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Quote Here's the RAP to get things started. Look at the energy! It's stronger and digging further south and west than all of the other guidance. I know that James is going to watch the RAP roll out hour-after-hour tonight! Keep us updated! The strange that about it ... the bold appears to be true over the last couple of runs. Ever so slightly but luckly its the crap rap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Woah, woah. What am I missing here? Now we have both DT and WX Jordan predicting 1-2 inches for the triad based on the latest model guidance? I am seeing a stray flurry from the early afternoon runs and havent seen anything to the contrary (on my mobile) since. Where is this coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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