earthlight Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Snow maps on 00z gfs 4-8 How terrible. What a crying shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How terrible. What a crying shame. Ahhh sarcasm lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anytime a model doesn't show what certain people want they claim convective feedback issuesI wouldn't quite jump to that conclusion. Tip is a pretty knowledgeable met and all things considered the explanation he provided in the NE forum is actually a very sensible post. It is very possible his points are true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Up in the NE thread, Tip is suggesting convective feedback again in the GFS. He likes the NAM better. I dont know what to think except that sometimes convective feedback verifies. I think that he's right, this is the same thing the GFS did on the 2/8 event last year, it was popping 2 low centers for days and did not really consolidate til maybe 48 hours or less before the storm, the fact the RGEM and the NAM agree gives more fuel to that argument, the GGEM and Euro have generally not been showing the crazy 2 low idea either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anytime a model doesn't show what certain people want they claim convective feedback issues Did you read his posts? (pg.41) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anytime a model doesn't show what certain people want they claim convective feedback issues His reasoning was sound. He may be right. The gfs and nam are both pretty big hits for eastern sne. It's not like he's tossing one for the biggest solution. All things still on the table at this point, hopefully everyone cashes in to their liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anytime a model doesn't show what certain people want they claim convective feedback issues That's not true... The model right now is assuming the low develops away from the best upper level dynamics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anytime a model doesn't show what certain people want they claim convective feedback issues Tip is a met, and a damn good one at that. This comment is off base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How terrible. What a crying shame. I know! 6 inches of snow what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I wouldn't quite jump to that conclusion. Tip is a pretty knowledgeable met and all things considered the explanation he provided in the NE forum is actually a very sensible post. It is very possible his points are true. So as a met he liked a model that's standing all alone on a solution? Especial one that has an amped Qpf bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs 4 to 8. NAM 8 to 12. Wait for euro. Blend em and it's warning criteria w temps goin to 10. It will b a good storm regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How terrible. What a crying shame. I know! 6 inches of snow what a joke It doesn't show 18" of wind driven snow. So we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Tip is a met, and a damn good one at that. This comment is off base How's my comment off base? He's on board with 1 model run that's completely over amped in comparison to every other model.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm sure there will be plenty of hangovers tomorrow morning if the 0z Euro shifts to the 0z NAM solution or even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It doesn't show 18" of wind driven snow.So we toss. Well with typhoon tip saying its convective feedback from the gfs. Looks like the nam and rgem is the way to go as it doesnt have two low look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well, if the 0z JMA shows a HECS, that would be considered "straight hentai." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 People get so upset on this board if u make an observation or state an opinion that has anything to do with hurting their chance for big snows lol I love how no one is even mentioning the fact that the GGEM shows almost a complete miss.. Could any mets weigh in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How's my comment off base? He's on board with 1 model run that's completely over amped in comparison to every other model.. You need to go read some of his stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 People get so upset on this board if u make an observation or state an opinion that has anything to do with hurting their chance for big snows lol I love how no one is even mentioning the fact that the GGEM shows almost a complete miss.. Could any mets weigh in? GGEM is like GFS. Guess we have to just toss both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs 4 to 8. NAM 8 to 12. Wait for euro. Blend em and it's warning criteria w temps goin to 10. It will b a good storm regardless Yeah it's exciting either way...but in this case I think it's more like gfs 4-6 and NAM 10-15. Id really think that given it's track record of always doing this at around this time frame before an event, it should be tossed unless supported by another reputable model like the GFS or Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the NAM scores the coup were all eating crap and lots of it with all the crap we give it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 People get so upset on this board if u make an observation or state an opinion that has anything to do with hurting their chance for big snows lol I love how no one is even mentioning the fact that the GGEM shows almost a complete miss.. Could any mets weigh in?It no longer shows a complete miss. Post less. Read moar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 People get so upset on this board if u make an observation or state an opinion that has anything to do with hurting their chance for big snows lol I love how no one is even mentioning the fact that the GGEM shows almost a complete miss.. Could any mets weigh in? Not anymore, it just came significantly west from what I can see with those crap graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd be surprised if the GGEM was a complete miss given the RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the NAM scores the coup were all eating crap and lots of it with all the crap we give it haha The only thing that I've found the NAM to be useful for is it's sim radar and/or banding setups....in the 15-25 hour timeframe or so. But as the event draws closer, the HRRR can be used for that as well and has performed very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the NAM scores the coup were all eating crap and lots of it with all the crap we give it hahaNam has the rgem and cras on its side. The Srefs also have some monster hits. I think people betting against the nam will lose on this one. The h5 trends on the gfs were undeniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It no longer shows a complete miss. Post less. Read moar. It literally just came back west...but has shown an OTS for 3 days and not a single mention of it was my point...but thanks for the posting advice I'll be right on that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nam has the rgem and cras on its side. The Srefs also have some monster hits. I think people betting against the nam will lose on this one. The h5 trends on the gfs were undeniable. NAM is known for amped solutions with higher QPF. Cras is know for being amped and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think that he's right, this is the same thing the GFS did on the 2/8 event last year, it was popping 2 low centers for days and did not really consolidate til maybe 48 hours or less before the storm, the fact the RGEM and the NAM agree gives more fuel to that argument, the GGEM and Euro have generally not been showing the crazy 2 low idea either. I would think to an extent the lead vort and low is right, but there should definitely be more of a reflection near the coast with that strong a vortmax and track, along with the contrasting airmasses. It won't be a super-detonator like Boxing Day 2010 was, but I have to think it will be more impressive than the GFS keeps showing. And it has a tendency to do this-note in this run the diamond shaped convective blobs over the Gulf Stream and the low developing. That always seems to be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It doesn't show 18" of wind driven snow. So we toss. I know. I'll be flipping out unless I have to crawl out my second story window on Friday morning, unless the damn tidal surge washes away all the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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