IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS cut back in totals from 18z. Crud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS cut back in totals from 18z. I believe your are correct but we can hold with the 6-8" at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Crud. It didn't cut back. Still .4" at ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I am still not buying any of these solutions. I have zero confidence in the performance of the models at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 .42" for NYC on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Crud. I don't think it really cut back-looks the same as 18z about. 0.50" liquid starts at maybe the Nassau/Suffolk border this run. If snow averages at 15:1, that's 7-8" of snow. I still think it might be underdone given the intensity and track of that vortmax at 500-it takes a nice track for us to get raked. If the lead wave is overdone even a little, it could mean a lot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 As forky stated...The key point right now is not the QPF or temperature profile. The key is the 500 MB set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The GFS looked better at H5 again. I truly believe the GFS continues to play catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 4k NAM is straight porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The GFS is a bit less out here. I'd like to see the GEFS and Euro show something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm not sure why it would take the GFS so translate the h5 to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What does the GFS show for temps on Sat AM? I assume it warmed them up again since our frigid air hinges on the amplification of this storm? And is the NAVGEM/GGEM/UKMKET running right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 4k NAM is straight porn. can you show it to us please? all the kids are sleeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Small increase in qpf over 18z for NYC north and eastward: BOS: 0.88" +0.03" HPN: 0.44" +0.08" ISP: +0.53" +0.01" NYC: 0.42" +0.07" PHL: 0.27" -0.05" It's too soon to write off the idea that the NAM picked up on some more favorable data, even as its solution may have been somewhat extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I agree Yanks. The H5 is getting better and the fact that it hasn't led to a bigger storm has me puzzled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What does the GFS show for temps on Sat AM? I assume it warmed them up again since our frigid air hinges on the amplification of this storm? And is the NAVGEM/GGEM/UKMKET running right now? 0F line is close to NYC, doesn't make it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What does the GFS show for temps on Sat AM? I assume it warmed them up again since our frigid air hinges on the amplification of this storm? And is the NAVGEM/GGEM/UKMKET running right now? No change in temps or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0F line is close to NYC, doesn't make it though. No change in temps or snow Thanks, the GFS ensembles are going to very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 can you show it to us please? all the kids are sleeping That's gold what you said there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The trend is your friend, things continue to go in the right direction. What's important here is watching the phasing and negative tilt of the 500 MB trough improving with each model run. The 0z NAM has done a 180. Why? Think about that? Why such a a massive change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS cut back in totals from 18z. Actually, it looks ever so slightly better out this way in that regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Up in the NE thread, Tip is suggesting convective feedback again in the GFS. He likes the NAM better. I dont know what to think except that sometimes convective feedback verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I thought we would have a really good idea tonight about the final outcome. Seems like that may not be the case at this point. The small improvements continue. The million dollar question is, in the end is it enough? Truthfully, it's a tricky forecast. Many people back to school and work Thursday and Friday, could be ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Actually, it looks ever so slightly better out this way in that regard My mistake. Was looking at wrong run. It's slightly better. 0.5" line is more west than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That's gold what you said there. Well, if the 0z JMA shows a HECS, that would be considered "straight hentai." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ralph, Please come back with some more maps. You are missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 uploadfromtaptalk1388549202336.jpg Sent from my SCH-I545 thanks for sharing this image. Can you share a better resolution image though? The resolution is very low on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Up in the NE thread, Tip is suggesting convective feedback again in the GFS. He likes the NAM better. I dont know what to think except that sometimes convective feedback verifies. Anytime a model doesn't show what certain people want they claim convective feedback issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Snow maps on 00z gfs 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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