UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Could someone give a specific start/end time based of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 cras is a model. I can't tell you how it verifies or what its strengths/weaknesses are, but it is just more guidance. Why don't you get out of here you're not even from NYC!!! {Kidding of course but I couldn't resist} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 looks Check out the HiRes Total Precip. and its still going... 4k has 4 degrees and heavy sow @h60, that would be something to experience that band would extend up to SW Suffolk county as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You have the cras on your side: I have a better chance at hitting loto lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Don't think I saw it mentioned, but what do the winds look like during and after the storm in the NYC metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 I have a better chance at hitting loto lol You always want to see the craz amped, if its not its a warning sign so that's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why don't you get out of here you're not even from NYC!!! {Kidding of course but I couldn't resist} that's not called for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 anyone that follows these models, knows that the Euro was on to something the past 2 days. showing a decent storm. It took better sampling of data for the NAM to sniff it out. No possible way the GFS does not come in better regarding QPF. Still looks like a solid 6 + event. Possibly more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You have the cras on your side: Thats actually not that great, the CRAS is all the time like the NAM at 84 hours always amped up and insanely west, when we get benchmark bombs tracks the CRAS is usually hurting people's ears in Toronto or Pittsburgh so in reality...not that good LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Don't think I saw it mentioned, but what do the winds look like during and after the storm in the NYC metro area? put it this way if that NAM verifies I bet it would be blizzard conditions for coastal areas...but it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Don't think I saw it mentioned, but what do the winds look like during and after the storm in the NYC metro area? Wind will be ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 that's not called for It was a joke based on odwallas posts earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well, we know one thing for certain. 6-8 is a good forecast because neither the GFS nor the EURO ever outdo the NAM precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The RGEM is now moving that way too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 put it this way if that NAM verifies I bet it would be blizzard conditions for coastal areas...but it is the NAM We don't need a ton of snow for blizzard conditions.. Wind temps and fine blowing snow can occur with just a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Chances are that the GFS will be more amped, but like the NAM. Probably a 6-10" type deal. That's if the GFS is more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Good seeing rgem moving towards nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Doesn't the nam usually over do these things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why don't you get out of here you're not even from NYC!!! {Kidding of course but I couldn't resist} It was pretty funny actually (I saw the earlier post) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 anyone that follows these models, knows that the Euro was on to something the past 2 days. showing a decent storm. It took better sampling of data for the NAM to sniff it out. No possible way the GFS does not come in better regarding QPF. Still looks like a solid 6 + event. Possibly more But the euro backed off its big storm solution quit a bit. And if I recall earlier this month the nam showed a 16+ Storm for me and I got 7... I would not hop on board with this run since it has no other model support with the exception of a few older euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Could someone give a specific start/end time based of models Start in about 36 hours and over in about 66 hour as per the 00Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Doesn't the nam usually over do these things We'll have to watch the GFS and Euro later to see if they trend toward the amplified and tucked in surface depiction. If they do, at this stage it's real since the energy should be properly sampled. If not, the NAM might have had a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 But the euro backed off its big storm solution quit a bit. And if I recall earlier this month the nam showed a 16+ Storm for me and I got 7... I would not hop on board with this run since it has no other model support with the exception of a few older euro runs We can't really say it has no support as its the first of the major models to start the 0z suite. If there's no support at 1:15AM when we've seen the Euro then you can say it's on its own yet by comparing it to old runs of other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just saw the 21z SREF and they got much wetter, so that's also a good sign since the short-range ensembles are picking up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Start in about 36 hours and over in about 66 hour as per the 00Z NAM. Thank u sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We can't really say it has no support as its the first of the major models to start the 0z suite. If there's no support at 1:15AM when we've seen the Euro then you can say it's on its own yet by comparing it to old runs of other models. I'll agree with that... I will say however it does peak my interest that this nam runs almost a spitting image of the big euro runs from a day ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thank u sir That is a LONG DURATION event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thank u sir No problem. Just information overload.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just saw the 21z SREF and they got much wetter, so that's also a good sign since the short-range ensembles are picking up on it. Aren't those based on 18z data though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 put it this way if that NAM verifies I bet it would be blizzard conditions for coastal areas...but it is the NAM Wind will be ripping Thank you both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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