Saturn510 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Its only right if the others follow suit. Almost every run of each model the last couple days many have mentioned the small but positive changes at the upper levels. How many positives you need to actually translate to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Now you will see the next srefs super duper wet in a few hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 First let us see 6-8" on the ground and then we can increase the forecast. Not that I think 6-8 is a bad forecast, but isn't it prudent to have correct totals upfront, rather than increasing as the storm is ongoing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 As Forky has said, the 500 mb trough had Soooooo much potential. Now at least one of the models has come around. Can't wait to see the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We could have near blizzard conditions on Thursday night if this storm verifies. In the United States, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as sustained 35mph (56 km/h) winds which lead to blowing snow and cause visibilities of 500ft or less, lasting for at least 3 hours. Temperature is not taken into consideration when issuing a blizzard warning, but the nature of these storms is such that cold air is often present when the other criteria are met. Temperatures are generally below 0 °C (32 °F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 All of NJ would get 10-15" per this even on the del river...if the gfs shows something similar then I'll bite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How far back into nj does good precip extend? Can someone post a Qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 In the United States, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as sustained 35mph (56 km/h) winds which lead to blowing snow and cause visibilities of 500ft or less, lasting for at least 3 hours. Temperature is not taken into consideration when issuing a blizzard warning, but the nature of these storms is such that cold air is often present when the other criteria are met. Temperatures are generally below 0 °C (32 °F). Wonderful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 0z NAM: Let's see what the GFS and ECMWF have to say a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Putting aside the specific QPF outputs, how does this NAM run compare to the bigger Euro run not to long ago at h5 and the surface? Are they getting the bigger qpf outputs the same or different ways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How far back into nj does good precip extend? Can someone post a Qpf map? That connection of higher snowfall over the Hudson Valley I was talking about happened on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 While some may say the NAM is overdone. It's solution it very possible. I'm still staying with my 6-8" forecast for LI. Wouldn't jump on board for any higher if the GFS and Euro aren't better. Also to note, NAM now has temps well below 0 in NYC Sat AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 As Forky has said, the 500 mb trough had Soooooo much potential. Now at least one of the models has come around. Can't wait to see the GFS. I figured it was a matter of time before the surface depictions caught on. I also figured this would be a nailbiter right until the ball dropped. Let's hope the remaining 0z suite follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We need to calm down it's the NAM can we wait for the gfs and euro I agree I like the trends but we need more support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Also to note, NAM now has temps well below 0 in NYC Sat AM. Can you post the output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not that I think 6-8 is a bad forecast, but isn't it prudent to have correct totals upfront, rather than increasing as the storm is ongoing? I agree. However, since the NWS confidence is not high for that much they are typically conservative and will up the numbers as we get closer to the event and if future analysis warrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We need to calm down it's the NAM can we wait for the gfs and euro I agree I like the trends but we need more supportYou have the cras on your side: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not shocking to see a NAM QPF bomb. Just about every storm has one. We'll see if the steady as she goes GFS (at least with this storm) changes course in 45 mins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can you post the output? Posted it in this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42206-record-breaking-cold-possible-friday-and-saturday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 While some may say the NAM is overdone. It's solution it very possible. I'm still staying with my 6-8" forecast for LI. Wouldn't jump on board for any higher if the GFS and Euro aren't better. Also to note, NAM now has temps well below 0 in NYC Sat AM. I'd say 6-8" is a good call for now. But if the other models strengthen their surface depictions, amounts to 12" are possible. This will probably be the "wintriest" storm since Boxing Day 2010 when combining the snow, frigid cold and winds. It will look like a tundra on Friday outside and the wind and cold will make it nearly unbearable to be outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 First let us see 6-8" on the ground and then we can increase the forecast. I agree. Just sayin what nam says. Will wait for gfs and Euro before I bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wait what is CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wait what is CRAS? Replace the R with a P and you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Replace the R with a P and you get the idea. you mean the S? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Check out the HiRes Total Precip. and its still going... 4k has 4 degrees and heavy snow @h60, that would be something to experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 great, 15 inches for nassau county? I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the NAM is correct its a 12-18" storm for NW areas... precip amounts >1" w/ 15:1 to 20:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Check out the HiRes Total Precip that map has to be right because monmouth county always does irrationally well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wait what is CRAS?cras is a model. I can't tell you how it verifies or what its strengths/weaknesses are, but it is just more guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 you mean the S? lol Yes. Already the booze is getting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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