Blizzardo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Close to a inch at hr 60. Temps in the teens That could be 15" of snow with the ratio.. maybe a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yeah over a foot of snow for NJ so far on this run still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just remember everyone....last year before our 10-12 inches of snow, the NAM gave us 20-30" at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Areas N and NW this qpf with these temps is 15" plus. The NAM had at least one of these up its sleeve. Good start but seeing the GFS and Euro follow in any way would be very promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 And we thought the NAM was the new Dr. No, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's only a NAM "blip" if the gfs doesn't follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Needs to be taking with a grain of salt. Hopefully gfs and euro follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Wow this closed up fast around us at 48 hrs. It's a really good run it's the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's only a NAM "blip" if the gfs doesn't follow.strongly agree with this...like to see euro jump on board as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Does this show mixing issues on the island? If so how much of it is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On the 00Z NAM a secondary low forms over Virginia and moves off the Delaware coast and then out to sea. Still a decent precipitation shield for NYC and to hold with the 6-8" snowfall prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nam is taking a sip of the bubbly but so am I so yeah it sounds rite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Needs to be taking with a grain of salt. Hopefully gfs and euro follow Yes big time caution with this run. It'd the first showing anything like this and neefs some support before I'd bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Does this show mixing issues on the island? If so how much of it is snow? 850 temps remain good for Long Island on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is this a solid 18 hour snowstorm from Late Thursday to early afternoon Friday? Not a 6- 8 hour job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lets just say is 6-8 inches. Pls for our mental health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think we can safely say that the 4 -8 Upton has in their WSW has over 70 % chance of verifying and now we have to see if the other models follow the NAM - if so 4- 8 will be adjusted higher by 12Z tomorrow - this storm has alot of potential to be a MECS.... You can see that a neg nao is developing as the flow is not as progressive ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can't express this enough....we are still 2 days possibly from this storm commencing in our area....I have seen the NAM double and sometimes quadruple our totals even ONE day out NUMEROUS times. But....having said that....it is ALWAYS better to see model output like this than it be something BAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 1" qpf for NYC and n nj...verbatim 10-15" storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We could have near blizzard conditions on Thursday night if this storm verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just had a feeling this was going to happen sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What does the nam project in QPF for western LI and Central Long Island ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 in reality,it's been "trending" towards this since 0z last night...in the upper levels(as numerous people who know what they are talking about have noted) it's just finally translating to the surface now lets see some models that don't suck do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guys according to the NAM. It's 1 inch QPF. The soundings at jfk are 15 to 1. Not sure I'd it's right. But it's not 6 to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What does the nam project in QPF for western LI and Central Long Island ? over 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How far back into nj does good precip extend? Can someone post a Qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 One good thing is that it's not particularly a huge snow bomb... This is and could be a realistic depiction of the storm. Let's move onto the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guys according to the NAM. It's 1 inch QPF. The soundings at jfk are 15 to 1. Not sure I'd it's right. But it's not 6 to 8 First let us see 6-8" on the ground and then we can increase the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 SREF 21z puts down a "lobe" of heavier snow amounts into NYC down into Monmouth county as well. I tend to think (met opinions?) that as the NAM catches on to the reality of what is happening and the dynamics involved in a moisture-laden system, it's initial solutions once all the players are on the field are blown out of proportion. However, in subsequent runs (usually under 30 hours or so) it corrects itself to a more realistic solution. One important thing to keep in mind is that the storm itself has not ultimately changed what is and was going to happen. The computer generated models, however, are getting closer and closer to the time when they can forecast the storm correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM. Went from 1" to 7" to 17" IMBY the last three runs. C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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