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00z Model Discussion | January 2-3 Winter storm


WE GOT HIM

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Euro 2 to 4. GFS. 4 to 8. NAM 8 to 12 still too much variance 48 hrs out. Not kidding will need to see 24 hours to close the spray all of the above is 10 to 1. Take 15 to 1. Take the mean and wait til 12z tomrrw and see if this spread narrows. My bet match 500 mb and see who's wrong . On cell so can't see maps. Sorry

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I assume now is the time to take it as legit and not a feedback issue.

IDK honestly-I'm not a met but I've seen similar situations like this blow up at the end closer to the coast. 12/19/09 was the best example I can think of-there was a lead wave that robbed my area blind up until about this range on the models, and then the models finally caught onto the intensity of the trailing wave and brought the snow back. I ended up with about 18" or so and east of here up to 24". I don't think that will happen again now but I think the intensity of the action closer to the coast is being underdone somewhat with a shortwave that potent taking that track. That's a great track for NYC and should result in some decent returns. The lead wave would have to make it as dry as the Mohave Desert back here for so little snow to verify with something like that. But maybe I'm wrong.

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I'm tired of this model crap. Nam had the least amount of qpf yesterday so it was wrong because it's a short range model. Now it has the most amount so it's wrong because it's overdone. I really feel sorry for mets, but I love you.

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Prob not the monster everyone hoped for. ( Including me ) But 4 to 8 prob still looks goods and seems rational

Get your snow you will hold onto it over the weekend and the monnday system will cut and u will realize

How lucky we got this.

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