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00z Model Discussion | January 2-3 Winter storm


WE GOT HIM

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People get so upset on this board if u make an observation or state an opinion that has anything to do with hurting their chance for big snows lol I love how no one is even mentioning the fact that the GGEM shows almost a complete miss.. Could any mets weigh in?

A met did chime in a tips comments, and he agrees with him. If you want to get some schooling, tip is up there awaiting your arrival.

I suspect the nam is more correct, but overdoing the qpf as is does ll the time. 4 to 8 storm still, maybe 3 to 6 in jersey south.

A model run with cnvective feedback just isnt informative.. It distorts information, and a met has to deal with that, and the best to that, is to toss.

We await the euro to confirm the nam vort placements, and the trough orientation, or show yet another solution. The gfs solution is not ging to repeated by other models since it went haywire.

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A met did chime in a tips comments, and he agrees with him. If you want to get some schooling, tip is up there awaiting your arrival.

I suspect the nam is more correct, but overdoing the qpf as is does ll the time. 4 to 8 storm still, maybe 3 to 6 in jersey south.

A model run with cnvective feedback just isnt informative.. It distorts information, and a met has to deal with that, and the best to that, is to toss.

We await the euro to confirm the nam vort placements, and the trough orientation, or show yet another solution. The gfs solution is not ging to repeated by other models since it went haywire.

Bingo
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NAM is known for amped solutions with higher QPF. Cras is know for being amped and west.

Forget the higher QPF... Again, Why did it come back so far west? It was the only model showing hardly anything. What changed? This is a big jump. The fact is models continue to TREND better if you want more snow. You shouldn't be paying attention to the QPF so much right now. Look at the 500 MB pattern, that is much more important. Everything else will follow as we get closer to the event.

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Forget the higher QPF... Again, Why did it come back so far west? It was the only model showing hardly anything. What changed? This is a big jump. The fact is models continue to TREND better if you want more snow. You shouldn't be paying attention to the QPF so much right now. Look at the 500 MB pattern, that is much more important. Everything else will follow as we get closer to the event.

 

I hope your right. I think we still trend. I think the Euro will definitely come in better, but still not on the level of the NAM (QPF wise). 

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Guys, come on....still some time, but I do like this evening's trends. Please let the Euro show wetter!

I dont think huge differences are coming, but it would be a big indicator if we had some consistancy through 2 of the 3 main model runs tonight with some come together of the nam and euro.

We need 15 hours of good consistent models and then we can start makng snow maps. We havent had that yet.

I think Dt was the guy who liked when the old eta matches the euro, so nam will have to be the eta surogate.

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What does Mondays storm look like on GFS?

Happy new year

Rossi

Happy New Year! Since the GFS can't get it right at 48-60 hours, you cannot expect it to do well with 120-144. As of now, GFS has almost nothing for Monday. There's really nothing there, and it's probably wrong.

WX/PT

 

Correction-Inside runner Sunday==RAIN.

WX/PT

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